If you want to get some sense of how fucking cooked the Union is at the moment, look no further than how the Right and the Left are getting angry over the recent leaked preliminary SCOTUS overturning Roe.
The Left is understandably angry about the the fact that Roe is being overturned. While the Right is….
…the fact that this opinion was leaked?
That’s what they’re going with?
Apparently, yes.
So, this is an example of how the two are talking past each other. MAGA is totally wrapped up in all of this being leaked, while the Left is rightfully apoplectic about the case.
The point, of course, is that MAGA talking heads don’t want to talk about directly something that makes them squirm — their hatred of abortion rights is extremely unpopular.
And, in the end, we continue to slouch towards either a civil war or a MAGA autocracy.
History may not repeat but it does rhyme. Overturning Roe might, in hindsight, be seen as a modern day Dred Scott decision. And it definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards the biggest political crisis since 1860 – 1861. The passions of the 2024 election could very well tear the United States apart in a way not seen since the Civil War.
I have repeatedly said that around 2024 – 2025 we will face a choice. Either we turn into a MAGA autocracy or we have a Second American Civil War. Or, put another way, starting now, the United States is going to grow even more politically unstable than it has been since Trump became POTUS.
There are a lot ways that there could be a civil war.
Everything from Republicans being angry that Democrats keep Congress in 2022 to Democrats being angry that the administration of elections has grown so corrupted in 2024 that they no longer feel they can win, period.
Part of all of this is how the overturning of Roe might be the equivalent of the Dred Scott decision. When women get angry, things tend to change in a big way. It happened during the French Revolution, it might happen now.
But I just have no idea which way things will go. It could be we simply slip peacefully into autocracy, it could be that we have a civil war.
At the moment, it could go either way.
Overturning Roe, however, definitely seems to make the idea of a Second American Civil War seem far more likely.
Last night, as we were all processing the leak about the overturn of Roe, I looked at Tik-Tok. And, at least for me relative to Tik-Tok, we’ve now reached a moment where when there is big breaking hard news that a lot of people will get that news from Tik-Tok rather than somewhere else.
But I’m not totally sure yet.
It could be that while it will happen eventually, this is just the precursor for a coming new age. I have long thought that we needed a video Twitter. And I think we have it — Tik-Tok.
It’s not exactly what I envisioned, but it’s something similar.
Or, put another way, I think news consumption is about to undergo a vibe shift of sorts. It could be that within a year, it will simply be assumed that rather than turning to Twitter to learn about the news, people — especially younger people, will turn to Tik-Tok instead.
Here’s how something akin to a civil war could start as soon as later this year.
SCOTUS overturns Roe and this energizes the Democratic base to the point that there is a groundswell in November. Democrats when, but because the administration of elections is so corrupt now…they don’t win.
Ta-da.
There is also a chance the other side (MAGA) might start some sort of severe political violence in 2022 simply because they don’t believe in democracy anymore and, by definition, any election where they don’t win is illegitimate.
If you use Tik-Tok a lot, I would suggest you do the following. If you have a life, unlike me, should you go to a cocktail party, monitor any changes in what you are pushed onto your FYP over the next 24 hours.
You might find something interesting.
In the same vein, Tik-Tok pushed me a video recently of a woman with the same vocal mannerisms as my crush.
The chief thing I think is wrong when it comes to how we weigh the idea of a Second American Civil War happening is a basic miscalculation about the relative strengths of the two sides at the onset of any such war.
In fact, it is that basic miscalculation, I think, that would probably cause the war to start in the first place. The Right (Reds), thinking the Left (Blues) are all a bunch of numale soyboys, will think they can win any such Second American Civil War quickly and decisively.
Meanwhile, in the real world, things are far more complicated.
The issue is — generally, no matter how much of a numale soyboy you may be, if things grow existential because a MAGA person wants to murder you in cold blood because of your political views, you’re going to stop worrying about your pronouns and start doing something to defend yourself.
So, as such, Red MAGA people are going into any such potential fight with a misjudgment of what they’re getting themselves into. But we have to be clear — if there is a civil war, it’s going to be nasty and blood and more people will die as a result of it than died in WW2.
I say this because WMD will be seized by both sides and used gratuitously during the course of any such war.
But hopefully it won’t happen. Hopefully.
I will note, however, that if somehow, miraculously Democrats keep Congress in the fall, the likelihood of a Civil War is just about the same as if they lost it — but the context will be dramatically different.
If they lose Congress, the there’s a good chance that Trump will become Speaker — if for a limited amount of time — and all we’ll do is watch impeachment trials of Biden and Harris for two years. If the Democrats keep Congress, meanwhile, the pressure for some sort of rolling “Troubles” type civil war will grow.
And remember, I still believe we’re going to have a civil war that’s based on the state level, just like the first civil war. The dynamic will be the same when it begins, at least — (Blue) States will leave the Union around 2024 – 2025 because the administration elections has become totally corrupt.
But 2024 – 2025 remain the moment in time we have to worry about. Things are going to get really, really messy around then.
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