by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’ve started to think a lot about the potential economics of a Second American Civil War. On the face of it, my smart friend’s belief that I’m full of shit when it comes to believing we’re careening towards a civil war around 2025 is very valid. His dismissal of my fears on economic grounds make a lot of sense.
As long as plutocrats are making money, they don’t give a shit about how poor women in Red States can’t get an abortion.
And, yet, I struggle to accept this pat dismissal.
There are at least two reasons why I still think a Second American Civil War is still on the table for around 2025. The first reason is something that Republicans harp on all the time — the “woke” nature of Fortune 500 companies. As such, the case can be made that when the time comes, Woke Corporations will at least sit on their hands should Blue States get so angry with Red States that they leave the Union (or try to).
The other, bigger issue, is the continued bonkers radicalization of the MAGA New Right. If they were willing to simply turn Red States into a dystopian hellscape, then, yes, there wouldn’t be much economic reason Blue States to leave the Union.
And, yet, at its very core, MAGA’s vision is the total control of the entirety of the United States — Red and Blue. And that’s when the existential choice of autocracy or civil war happens for Blue States.
When it becomes clear that all three branches of the Federal government are permanently out to get Blue States and have a very radical agenda they want to implement nationally, there is every reason to believe Blue States may begin to leave the Union and we have a massive, catastrophic Second American Civil War that lasts years and involves WMD.
It probably won’t have a tidy endgame and it will totally redraw the political geography of North America. We could end up with The United States of Canada and Trumplandia and that would be that.
I can’t predict the future. I don’t have any reveled truth, but I’m not quite prepared to dismiss the possibility of a Second American Civil War entirely. But Blue States definitely have to decide one way or another — will they “bend a knee” to radical MAGA themed autocracy, or will they fight for what they believe in?
I dunno. Could go either way.
