Month: April 2022

Slouching Towards Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea of being “woke” has become a catch-all for the MAGA New Right. Anything they don’t like, or whenever they don’t get what they want, they ascribe it to the “woke mob.” All of this, of course, is part of the broader idea of being “Red Pilled.” When you’re Red Pilled, you believe that white Christians — especially men — are under attack by, you guessed it, the angry woke mob.

The is constantly at the forefront of my mind because I have far more conservative relatives who talk about their personal fear of being canceled simply for being conservative. Because of a combination of negative polarization and an extensive permission structure, they’re MAGA in all but name. They simply can not, will not, do the one thing necessary to save American democracy — make common cause with people like me to defeat the rise of fascism.

So, we’re fucked.

They don’t have any red line other than eventually, inevitably, when I get drunk sometime in the 2030s and rant at the top of my lungs about what a fat fuck President Mike Pompeo is, regardless of how many gastric bypass surgeries he has and I get detained by ICE. Of course, my conservative relatives think I’m nuts for even suggesting such a thing — they’re the good guys, after all, and nothing like that would ever happen.

Once we’re an MAGA New Right autocracy, the poors will stop being lazy and no one will ever again have to fear being “canceled” simply for a stray conservative comment in public.

This, of course, totally ignores the realities of living under an autocratic regime. Form follows function and the moment it’s simply accepted that it’s almost impossible for Democrats to have any real power, Republicans will begin to abuse this new power to the hilt. They will push through a fascist, Objectivist agenda that will gut the social safety net and turn back the clock to the 1950s.

The thing is, it’s not like Republicans are hiding any of this. In fact, that’s all they do, is scream at the top of their lungs about all the fascist things they want to once they have the power to do so.

And, at the moment, it definitely seems as though Republicans are going to transition the United States into an autocratic state. At some point after 2025, many, many center-Left people will flee the United States. There will be a lot of talk of an “American diaspora” and an “American brain drain” but by then it will be too late.

Trump then his hand picked successor (DeSantis? Pompeo? Flynn?) will strangle American democracy once and for all and the seething rage of white Christians in the United States will serve as the bedrock of our new autocratic state. We will be politically identical to Russia. There will be huge protests every once in a while, but in general, nothing will change.

America will grow poorer, more inward looking and probably leave NATO to form an alliance with Russia. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know specifically when and how this nightmare scenario will happen, but all the macro trends I see are definitely heading in that direction.

At least, I suppose, Republicans will no longer have the abstract fear that a stray conservative comment at work or in public will ruin their lives. They will have burned everything to the ground to get it, but they will no longer have to worry about being “canceled.”

The other options is, of course, we have a civil war, bomb ourselves into the Stone Age and it takes 20 to 40 years for us to recover one way or another. At the moment, I honestly don’t know which option we will pick as a nation.

Fuck The MAGA New Right, Or Slow Your Roll If You Want An Autocratic America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As is so often the case, all these nightmare scenarios I come up with about the rise of fascism in the United States get people from Red States all excited. A post I wrote some time ago about why the United States is probably going to slip peacefully into autocracy is suddenly getting a trickle of traffic and I assume it’s from people looking forward to that happening.

Anyway, I generally believe all far Right people are huge fucking hypocrites. As such, if you’re a member of the MAGA New Right and you are eager for the United States to become a Russian-style autocratic white Christian ethno state, you might want to pause for some reflection.

The reason is simple — while you won’t have to worry about “the woke cancel culture mob” canceling you for a tone deaf comment that is recorded and goes viral, a lot of other things you take for granted won’t be there anymore. Or, if you want to get more technical about it — even if you are a Good German and get to smugly enjoy the destruction of the center-Left in the United States, someone in your life you care about is probably not going to be so fortunate.

So, while maybe you can cheer at the end of the social safety net, I bet you someone you care about relies upon it being there for them. Or if you don’t have to worry about how suddenly it’s impossible to get an abortion, someone you care about will.

But since you’re a huge fucking hypocrite, you’ll break the law to get that abortion or whatever. Or you’ll sulk in private about how things have changed, but you’ll have no recourse. Voting won’t matter. And after the Constitutional Convention, ICE will be able to knock heads of anyone who has the temerity to speak out against the autocrat.

And, yet, that’s what members of the MAGA New Right want. They haven’t really thought things through, but they are so worked up about the “woke mob” that when they get what they want, they’ll get what they want.

What’s more, if you’re MAGA, you’ll also get to enjoy all the liberal elites fleeing the country to escape the autocrat’s grasp. Of course, taxes for the rich will become non existent and poor people will have to pay for everything. Social Security might get phased out, too.

But at least you won’t have to worry about being canceled.

Contemplating A Second Creative Track — Again


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I love the five novel project I’m working on, the more serious I become about it, the more I realize each of these novels is probably going to be a bit long. I’m an unknown, untested first time novelist and, as such, things aren’t exactly in my favor. In fact, as it stands, for me to sell anything would be the creative equivalent of winning the lottery.

As such, I find myself again thinking of a second creative track. I have a great concept for a novel that I originally conceived as a screenplay. But the learning curve for a screenplay is simply way, way, way too sharp for me to finish it as quickly as I’d like. Half my time would be spent just figuring out how to use FinalDraft properly.

So, a novel it is.

I’m hoping this second track novel will be safely within the 80,000 to 120,000 word range that any first time novelist should strive for. I’m giving myself 100 scenes, which would be just about right. The story is very much in the vein of Don’t Look Up, but it addresses global climate change in a very much more direct manner.

As I’ve said before, the people I’ve described the story to have been enthralled by it. But the problem is, I only have an ending at this point. I have a general idea about a beginning, but everything else besides the third act is a total mystery. I just hate the idea of spending all this time on a second track when I could be using that time to make the main five novel project better.

But, like I said, I need something shorter to serve as a calling card of sorts for what I’m capable of.

I think my best bet to speed up the process of developing this novel is to really focus on motivation. That’s been a real struggle with these five novels I’m working on — for a long time, I didn’t know what the motivation of my protagonist was.

So, I’m going to think about motivation really hard before I get too wrapped up in sorting out the plot. I hope, at least, that that will speed things up in the long run.

Of Tik-Tok, Big Tech & ‘Digital Telepathy’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m very well aware that any suggestion that Big Tech can read our minds is demonstrably bonkers. It’s just not something any reasonable person can take seriously. And the only reason why I even mention it or keep thinking about it in a very conspicuous manner is how often Tik-Tok pushes me videos that are very, very specific to me personally.

If there was any reasonable explanation for how their “algorithm” knew something specifically about me, then I would dismiss the idea that digital telepathy was possible just like any one else.

But consistently since I started using Tik-Tok, I have been pushed videos that seem to reference specific things that I’ve thought about — and told no one else about. I have not written about it. I have not tweeted about it. I have no spoken about it. It’s something that’s been exclusively a part of my internal monologue.

I guess it seems so ridiculous on the face of it because it’s just something the average person is unwilling or unable to believe is even possible. We would know about it if they were doing it, right? For Big Tech and Tik-Tok to read our minds, it would be such a big technological advancement that they would tell us about it, right? Right?

But Arthur C. Clarke said once that, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” If Tik-Tok can read our minds, this is what I think is happening — it’s not granular. They can’t turn off any specific element of what your thinking about, so you only notice what’s going on when it deals with issues surrounding your body.

It’s things to do with the body that your most likely not tell anyone else about and, as such, when you get pushed videos by Tik-Tok that reference such things, you notice that it’s something you haven’t told anyone about.

Now, of course, you could say that it’s similar to how Target got in trouble once for sending to a young woman’s home coupons for pregnancy related things, even though she had not told her family yet. It think figuring out that someone is pregnant through what they do online is a lot different that being pushed a specific video about this or that thing about your body that has exclusively been a part of your internal monologue.

Another thing that goes against the idea of digital telepathy is someone, somewhere, would know the technology exists and, as such, it would leak out and we would know about it. It’s well known that Facebook and others have been looking into digital telepathy, but Facebook recently made a big deal about how they were scrapping the project.

So, I don’t know. For the time being, I’m just going to have to accept that I sound bonkers for even mentioning the possibility that Big Tech can read my mind through my cellphone.

‘The Undertoad:’ Of Our 2024 – 2025 Existential Choice of Civil War Or Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

To anyone paying attention to American politics, it’s difficult not to be overwhelmed with a sense of impending doom, of dread — The Undertoad. The Republican Party no longer believes in democracy — in fact, won’t shut up about this fact — and because of macro trends they are ascendant.

So, all things being equal, Republicans will, starting January 2023 begin the process of extinguishing American what’s left of American democracy once and for all. The Republican Party has radicalized to the point that even though they probably would win the 2024 without cheating, they will do so anyway.

Once Trump (or whomever) becomes president in 2025, the final transformation of the United States into a Russian-style white Christian ethno state will begin. And I personally know a number of people who will be quite happy that this is happening — until, of course, someone they’re related to — namely ME — crosses our new autocratic regime and they have to figure out how to get me out of a Trump branded re-education camp.

It will all happen gradually, too. And that, in a sense, is why autocracy is so insidious. Most of the people who are screaming at the top of their lungs for an autocracy don’t even realize what they’re doing — all they know is they’re personally afraid of being canceled by the “woke mob” and if that means the end of American democracy, so be it. “The United States isn’t a democracy, it’s a republic. Are you going to question the wisdom of the Founding Fathers?” they say.

And when we’re finally an autocracy, they will sit back smugly that the evil woke mob is finally vanquished and they never have to worry about Democrats ever holding important offices again. They will think this until, as I mentioned, someone they love runs afoul of the autocrat. Then they will sit up and take notice because they’re fucking hypocrites.

But as I keep saying, there are macro political trends coming to a head between now and Certification Day 2025 that we just can’t stop. It would have to take something truly astonishing for us not to face the existential choice of civil war or autocracy. It’s happened once already — the pandemic — so, I suppose it’s possible it could happen again.

This brings up the idea of a potential civil war. At the moment, I think we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. Nothing will change at first, but mysteriously we’ll all wake up 20 years from now and somehow Ron DeSantis is still POTUS. A mass migration of center-Left people will have occured. The United States will be out of NATO and aligned with Russia and the Constitution will have been changed in accordance with an “American First” world view.

Back to civil war. While I struggle with the idea of a civil war, I also know it’s at least possible. The key metric we have to keep any eye on is how bad things get when Republicans take control of Congress. If they are as bad as I fear — repeated impeachments of both Biden and Harris, for instance, then the prospect of a civil war increases significantly.

But any Second American Civil War would be one of those things that happen for immediate tactical reasons that I can’t game out. A lot depends on the specific circumstances, the specific sequence of events between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

If Republicans steal the 2024 election in such a brazen manner because they just don’t fucking care anymore, there is a real chance that a number of major Blue State governors will hold some sort of emergency summit to decide how they’re going to react. If California decides to join forces with New York, Illinois and Massachusetts to leave the Union — or to simply deny that Trump (or whomever) won the election, then we’ll have a civil war.

But I have to stress again that a civil war would happen for reasons that I can’t predict. A lot of personalities and touch choices would be involved in ways that I can’t predict years in advance. Yet, of course, there is a real risk that things will break in such a way that a civil war — based on the state level — will break out and the United States bombs itself into the Stone Age using WMD.

Yet, as I keep saying, all signs point to us slipping peacefully into autocracy. But only time will tell.

The Hand Of Fate


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

They chief thing that most people are missing about the United States right now is macro trends are not on our side. A number of tectonic issues are coming to a head at the same time.

No amount of earnest Twitter threads by Mueller, She Wrote will change how fucked we are. At the moment, I think we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy around 2025. It will happen when Trump (or whomever the Republicans pick) becomes president and the march towards Russian-style autocracy officially begins.

And, let me be clear, it’s not Trump we really have to worry about, but his Republican successor. I say this because the entire Republican Party is now consumed by Qanon and fascists to the point that once they gain power again it’s unlikely they’ll ever give it up without significant violence. As I’ve said before, it’s possible that we’ll look back on the 2020 president election as the last free and fair election in modern American history.

The key issue is the average American who is raising their kids and paying their mortgage has a finite attention span for politics. It’s because of this that Republicans pick an Issue of the Moment then rant about it constantly until it becomes permanently lodged in people’s minds.

Once that happens, that issue is officially so loaded as to be off limits. They have done this with a series of issues, ranging from gun control to race to global climate change. And, in the end, they may very well do it to the idea of democracy itself.

I could easily imagine after Trump (or whomever) brazenly steals the 2024 election that Republicans will rant and rant about how America is “a republic not a democracy” to the point that it’s impossible for there to be any sort of discussion about what just happened and how to bring back American democracy.

This is the point when I have to note something — the moment the United States is no longer a functioning democracy the connection between the government and the populace will grow weaker and weaker to the point that it doesn’t exist. As such, once the United States is an autocracy, Republicans will enact their extremely unpopular agenda to the point that even people who support Republicans in general might sit up and take notice.

I say this because in my experience, a lot of Republicans grave a white Christian ethno state….but when they, personally, are affected by such policies, they get very upset. Republicans are notorious hypocrites in that regard.

Anyway, while I continue to believe we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy, there is a chance we’ll have a civil war. That is the wildcard in all of this. There is an element of uncertainty that I can’t game out.

Because, make no mistake, if there’s a civil war, it will be because Blue States leave the Union. So, we either slip into autocracy or have a civil war. This is going to happen at some point in the near future. We can’t keep punting out late-stage Republic problems down the road forever.

Get ready.

Form Follows Function


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been reading a book about the rise of Hitler and the Nazis and it’s surreal how much the MAGA New Right is beginning to stress a number of the same concepts as they did.

The Corporate State
As I understand it, this is idea that the State should work and guide private industry for the goals of the nation. The current rise in anger towards “woke corporations” is definitely a move towards an American autocrat telling private industry what it can, and can’t, do. From my discussions with my far more conservative relatives, this definitely seems like something they’re looking forward to. This plays into their personal fear that because of the “woke mob” that their lives will be ruined because they’re conservative.

Leadership Principle
This was a key element of Nazism. This is the idea that by deferring absolutely to the autocrat, you can get the best result is something that is something growing in popularity within MAGA New Right circles. This is why the entirety of the Republican Party is prepared to give Trump absolute power. But, of course, the issue is it’s not going to be Trump who uses the Leadership Principle, but whomever his successor is.

For the time being, I think the United States is going to drift peacefully into autocracy. Hundreds of thousands of center-Left people will leave the United States once autocracy is here and 20 years from now the United States will be politically identical to Putin’s Russia.

I just don’t believe the center-Left has it in it to do anything about the rise of autocracy in America. And, if it does, it will be done in a frantic spasm in the lead up to Certification Day 2025

MAGA’s Fascist Attack On ‘Woke Corporations’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I suppose it was inevitable it would come to this. From conversations with my far more conservative relatives I have gleaned that that the issue of “woke corporations” is really at the forefront of their mind on a near constant basis. They hate idea that they have to have regular sensitivity training for this or that reason and MAGA’s recent outrage over Disney and Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” legislation is an extension of that.

I keep telling my conservative relatives to just be patient. The Right is ascendant and all their concerns about the “woke mob” will be addressed soon enough. But they just ignore me they’re so enraged by their personal fears about being “canceled” simply for being conservative.

Then I saw this tonight on Twitter and I realized my suggestion to my conservative relatives is more timely than I could ever have realized.

So, there you go. When Republicans gain power again, they’re going to address “woke corporations” and it will be yet another element of their fascist agenda that they will implement.

It’s grow more and more obvious to me that my conservative relatives will be the backbone of autocratic America. And, as I keep saying, they have no red line other than me. When I inevitable cross the autocrat and get picked up by ICE, THEN they will get upset with America’s shift from democracy to autocracy. But until then, they are going to be quite pleased with the death of American democracy to the point that they will welcome its demise at some point around 2025.

Or we have a civil war, lulz.

How SNL Should Open This Weekend


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given that The Tonight Show choked on Monday night when it came to addressing The Slap, I have every reason to believe that SNL will be similarly subdued on the subject.

And, yet, this is a great opportunity for some historic TV on the part of SNL. Here’s what I would do for the snow’s cold open:

We open with Lorne Michaels standing next to Chris Rock. The entire cast of SNL stands behind them. The two crack some jokes and Michaels gives Rock some words of advice and maybe a hug.

Then they all say “Live, From New York, It’s Saturday Night!”

The other option is the same open, but they give Rock a five minute set to address what happened.

I would be pretty amazed if anything like this happened, however.

Vanity Fair Has Some Splaining To Do


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that we’ve all had some time to think about what happened on Oscar night, I think we need to turn our ire to Vanity Fair. I love the magazine, but for them to allow Will Smith to “get jigging with it” at their afterparty as if nothing happened is a head shaking moment.

If there were going to be any consequences for Smith, it was going to be the night of the event. For Vanity Fair to lulz such a shocking act of violence after the event itself only gives gist to the Right wing nut jobs who want to burn everything to the ground and take the liberal elite with it.

In fact, had Vanity Fair barred Smith from their party, that would have at least been some sort of accountability for Smith. In fact, that might have hurt Smith a lot more than anything else Hollywood could think up. As it is, Smith still has his Oscar and he still has the largely positive memories of what happened.

So, this is all proof that we live in a post-accountability era. Smith is going to get away with it without any consequences and the whole event will fade. Just like Trumplandia, The Slap will be something we all saw happen in real time and…yet…nothing really happened because of it.

There may be some subtle changes in society here and there, but The Slap at the moment is completely value free.