Month: March 2022

Russo-Ukrainian Winter War State Of Play For March 1st, 2022: An Uneven Debacle


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though we’ve reached a very unnerving moment in this war, where both sides can claim victories. It seems as though things could go either way at this point.

Either the Russians back down and sue for peace, or Putin escalates things to the point where some form of WMD are used. It really could go either way. And, what’s more, we don’t know the long-term stability of Russia at the moment. Russia could collapse in a rather abrupt manner, given all the sanctions being imposed on it at the moment.

Remember, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once as the old saying goes.

On the ground, there seems to be something of a stalemate. But the Russians have begun to grow more aggressive in some of the weapons they are willing to use. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

I guess the point right now is there isn’t really any big news. The Russians continue to collapse here and there, and yet pick up some territory as well. There are fierce battles going on for Kyiv and Kharkiv. But, for the moment, the cities continue to be in Ukrainian hands.

But, we’ll see. It will be interesting where things go from here.

The Fate Of Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. So, it seems logical to assume that we have to begin taking seriously the idea that Putin’s Russia is going to rapidly grow unstable.

Everything from a simple palace coup to revolution then civil war is possible at this point. You thought a war between Ukraine and Russia was bad, just wait until a nation full of WMD implodes with no ready endgame.

Call it the Great Reset or the Fourth Turning, history has suddenly and violently woken from its somnambulism. This is one of those inflection points where anything can, and will happen.

The great maw of history is now open, tearing up decades of stability, norms and tradition in what seems like the blink of an eye. And, honestly, I think this is just the beginning of a much longer period of global instability. I say this because the United States remains on course to face the existential choice of civil war or autocracy in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

And that would just be the beginning of that process.

Either way — autocracy or civil war — the likelihood of WW3 happening would greatly increase because in either case the United States would likely be knocked out of global commission for the foreseeable future. If Trump becomes president again, in could very well pull us out of NATO as part of his fascist America First agenda.

Or, if we have a civil war, then we bomb ourselves into oblivion…opening the door to WW3 happening because, well, lulz, we will be too preoccupied destroying ourselves to do anything about it.

All I can say is — gird your loins. The remainder of this decade could, in fact, be very, very bumpy. Talk about vibe shift! It could be so bumpy, in fact, that either we endup in an extremely divided, hostile world or a far more united world that is prepared to deal with Big Issues like global climate change.