‘Vibe Shift’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When it comes to the notion of a “vibe shift,” one has to look no further than the 1980s. The pop culture of the early 1980s was very, very different of that of the late 1980s. In a way, it seems like the 80s were the last decade to have real personality.

I mean, can you off the top of your head think of what the 90s were “about” other than grunge and the Dotcom Bubble? Compare to what we have now, the 90s were a regular Era of Good Feelings. A lot this, of course, came from how racist White People did not have the looming prospect of scary brown and black people dominating the nation’s demographics.

Both the 00s, the 10s and the 20s (so far) really haven’t been about anything other than vague things like “the War on Terror” or “the Great Recession” or “Trumplandia.” The 80s, meanwhile, had a lot of personality. True Grit.

The 80s were the last decade where everyone in the United States was on the same cultural page. When there was a “vibe shift” everyone did it at the same time.

And, really, it could be that it could take WW3 globally and civil war in the USA for there to be some sense of unity again when it comes to a “vibe shift.” WW3 would force everyone to sit up and take notice that a huge event was happening around them, that history was wide awake again. The fact that a limited nuclear exchange would fry everyone’s electronics might aid in that unity of vision, too.

But, lulz. What do I know. I’m just a nobody in the rural part of a flyover state.

‘Shall We Play A Game?’ Staring Into The Void Of WW3


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea that we consider “WW3” is actually a spectrum of different scenarios, with The End Of The World being on one end and just a big old lulz at the other end. A lot of what would be “WW3” would be something that was marketed as such by the press.

The most likely scenario for something called “WW3” would be two or more regional wars happening at the same time. So, if China attacked Taiwan because it felt Russia was a brother in arms, then, that, legitimately, could be called WW3.

But no matter what, it’s at least possible that WW3 has already begun, we just don’t realize it yet. If Russia used low-grade battlefield nukes on Ukraine, then the slide into an actual fighting war between NATO and Russia would likely accelerate. And given that the 80 year old taboo against using nukes would no longer exist, Taiwan would definitely begin to look far more enticing to China. And, of course, you have the wildcard of the DPRK floating around.

AND — and this is a very important and — you have to take into account that the US is careening towards unprecedented instability starting the moment the Republicans take control of Congress. And that instability will only get worse and worse as we approach the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

So, it’s possible that in hindsight, 2022 will be seen not as 1939, but as 1937, the year when Japan attacked China in a big way and laid the groundwork for WW2. Or, put another way, you could go so far as to say you can count in months the time we have of lingering “normal” life before all hell really breaks loose.

The real question is what will the world look like once we get through this Great Reset or Fourth Turning (or whatever you want to call it.) Either humanity will be run by a bunch of autocrats or we’ll be even more united and able to deal with Big Issues like global climate change.

A few million (billion?) people may have died to get us to that latter endgame, but hopefully their deaths won’t have been in vain. But let me be clear — the United States is ripe for revolution / civil war in the coming years. If you were looking at America as different nation than ours this would be clear. And, honestly, I think the only thing that’s stopped us from collapsing is interia and the general laid back national personality of Americans. We’re not French, afterall.

Gird your loins.

Bad Novel Development Habits I Have


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, I find myself chugging along with this first novel in what I hope is a five novel series, and, yet, I continue to have a lot of bad habits. One of my biggest bad habits is I keep wanting to use scenes I’ve already written as nothing more than something akin to object-oriented programing where I move them around without any value.

This is bad because there will come a point when someone ELSE is going to read what I’m writing and they’re going to find the end result rather jarring. And, yet, I need to keep momentum.

So, sometimes, I just use something I’ve already written as something akin to a placeholder. I’m a pretty unique situation in my life at the moment when it comes to writing and all good things have to come to and end — and I’m not getting any younger — so, lulz, so momentum is a huge deal.

I have a whole lot at the moment. Though, I will admit I feel waves of sheepishness writing and talking about something I’ve been working on for years now.

And, yet, I know that my storytelling ability has improved a great deal and most of the delay has come from, well, how I’ve been forced to bootstrap myself to the point where I don’t embarrass myself in what I write.

It’s taken a long, long time to get to where I am now and I continue to grow startled now and again at this or that storytelling thing that I totally missed. Which, in turn, forces me to scrap a lot of what I’ve already written.

Lulz.

Of Bella Thorne & The Influence Of ‘Fleabag’ On These 5 Novels I’m Developing & Writing


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really love Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s “Fleabag.” So, in the back of my mind as I work on these five novels, I think about that character in the context of the character who is really the source of all the chaos that attacks the little Southern town I’ve come up with.

So, let me lay out what’s going on. The first book starts about 25 years ago. And it’s about the events leading up to, and the immediate consequences of, the murder of a Fleabag-like young woman. Or, put another way, imagine the damage Fleabag might cause if you plopped her in a small Southern town 25 years ago.

A lot, is what I believe.

(If I was going to cast this particular character in a movie adaptation of this book, it would be Bella Thorne. She’s perfect.)

But the point is — the character did not deserve what happened to her, even if she was really causing a lot of problems for people in the town. And, as such, the five novels are about how one person’s has value. The over-all, macro arc of the story is about how each one of us has value as a human being, pretty much no matter how bad our behavior. (Within reason, of course.)

So, I like I toying with the implications of Fleabag-like character “coloring outside the lines” leading to her murder in a small town and how everyone has to deal with with the consequences over the course of a generation.

That’s the creative itch that keeps me obsessed with these five novels. That and the idea that by the time readers get to the four and fifth books the allegory for Trumplandia that I’ve come up with makes total sense. Of course that’s what would happen, I want readers to say to themselves when we discover how fucked up the small Southern town I’ve come with is by that point.

Call your agent (one day.)

But we are talking about five novels. Things are moving really fast at the moment — I’m currently at about the fourth chapter mark of either a really good first draft or a mediocre second draft. Let me be clear, however, I’m pretty much doing this in a total vacuum.

I don’t have a muse. I have no one to talk to. No one likes me and I have no friends. But I can tell a Goddamn good story. So, lulz, only time will tell, I guess.

If I Wasn’t Writing 5 Novels About Trumplandia, I Would Be Writing A Screenplay About Global Climate Change


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are going really well with these five novels I’m working on. I’m still struggling with the first novel, ugh, but I do have five solid novel concepts. But in the back of my mind, I have this really, really great screenplay that is about the implications of global climate change.

I have a beginning and an ending, but there’s a huge void where the middle part should be.

And, yet, there is a part of me that always occasionally wants to use this global climate change-themed screenplay as my “second creative track.” Some of the people I’ve told the general story to were rather enthralled by what I’ve come up with.

But I love these five novels too much. Though, I will admit the practical aspects of developing and writing five novels have me stumped at the moment. Should I just focus on the first book and use it as a calling card for the other five novels, or should I make at least an attempt to do one run through through the all five novels on a first-draft basis?

At this point, I just don’t know.

The thing about this screenplay percolating in my mind is so much better than Don’t Look Up. It addresses the implications of Global Climate Change in a way that is far more clean on a storytelling basis. None of the bonkers, scrambled storytelling of Don’t Look Up that I found so grating.

Though, one element that is interesting about the characters I’ve come up with is I like how it kind of switches the gender roles of the Hero With A Thousand Faces trope we’re so used to.

Anyway.

What I think is going to happen is I’m going to really focus on the first book of this five book series, then if I get a literary agent and sell it, I’ll use that foot in the door to sell the other four novels in the series. And, then, maybe, I can figure out a way to sell my far-better interpretation of Don’t Look Up.

WW3: Putin’s Challenge To Pax America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The nightmare scenario we face at the moment, of course, is that Putin is no longer a rational actor. As such, the same screwy logic that had him go into Ukraine might cause him to attack NATO in some way. Either by, say, attacking a convoy supplying Ukraine or attacking a Baltic state or states.

That would be when Putin and NATO would face an existential choice. Either they figured out some way to reduce tensions, or they went at it. I read Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising novel when I was a kid and much of what I learned from it way back when it still applicable. Just because WW3 started, doesn’t mean it would have to go nuclear.

What I could imagine happening is some sort of geopolitical tet-a-tet between the Usual Suspects of nations that would have a vested interest in ending the 75 year old Pax America. If Putin was somehow able to get China, the DPRK and Iran to make a full-blow attack against American global dominance, then we’re going to the show.

In a way, I think the DPRK would be the lynchpin of any attempt on Putin’s bonkers calculations. The DPRK is so strange, there is at least a chance they might be leaned on to attack the South Koreans in a big way, without really realizing they were being used as a pawn for Russia and China’s bigger goal of re-arranging the global order.

The DPRK is a unique nuclear state in that it has the means and opportunity to destroy a major American city without ending anything but itself. In other words, the DPRK has ICBMs and H-bombs that it could use to zap LA, NYC or DC…and in the end all that would happen is the USA would, in turn, bomb the DPRK into the Stone Age.

But using a City Killer on NYC or LA would leave a serious mark on the USA, to the point that Russia and China could re-arrange the global political order to their liking without sacrificing any of their own people. This is a real stretch to some extent, but if Putin is no longer a rational actor, then it’s logic that we at least have to mull.

The thing is, once WW3 started, by definition, the peace and prosperity that billions have enjoyed since WW2 would come to a rather abrupt end. There would be no value to it and we would only give it narrative after it was over. So, in short — the bad guys might win. The USA could be left crippled after a limited nuclear exchange with the DPRK and Russia and China would fill the void.

Meanwhile, Iran and Israel might blow each other up, as might India and Pakistan. A real New World Order might emerge, with China, specifically, having a clear shot at dominating the world both economically and politically. Russia might also rise in the context of global climate change that no one seems all that interested in doing anything about.

What’s more, even if we manage to escape WW3 in the near term, around 2024 – 2025, all the conditions are there for it to happen, anyway, since the US is either going to become Fortress Autocratic America or have a civil war. In either case, everything will be scrambled for the first time in around 80 years. It will be The Great Reset or The Fourth Turning, depending on how bonkers or conspiratorial you are.

Good luck.

There Is No Revealed Truth As To How To Write A Novel


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

According to Star Wars lore, Obi Wan Kenobi was killed off in the original Star Wars movie because, lulz, George Lucas had nothing left for him to do. I find myself in a similar situation.

I have — out of desperation — shoehorned myself as a character into the first novel in what is meant to be a five novel series. Things are going really, really, well.

But for one thing — after the first book, I have nothing for my proxy me to do. So, I’m killing the character off before the end of the first book. In short — I plan on killing off the protagonist of my first novel off in mid-story. Or, not really mid-story — his murder will be about as strategic as I can get — but he won’t make it to the end of the novel’s plot.

Now, in the context of five novels it makes total sense — if you read all five novels then, obviously, his death is the emotional hand off to the real “heart” of the story, the woman who loves my interpolation of the Lisbeth Salander trope. But if you were to just read the first novel you might be taken aback that I killed off the hero of the story.

So, yes, it’s risky. But I hope that given that it is obvious that there are TWO heroes to the story that if I kill off one of them, people will be upset…and interested in where the story goes after that point.

Anyway. I’m sure I’m breaking like three or four fundimental rules of novel storytelling by doing such a thing, but fuck you. There is no revealed truth as to how to write a novel or a screenplay or TV — the point is to tell a great story and to entertain the audience.

I don’t know what else will happen, but that’s my goal.

Why 5 Novels?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I may have written about this before, but let me recapitulate how I got myself into a situation where I see this is a five book project. It all started several years ago when I was full of a white of rage over Trumplandia. A number of different things were going on at the same time.

I first wanted to write a huge scifi novel series. It was going to be epic. All my anger about Trumplandia would be shown in subtext of this sprawling scifi epic. And then I hit a wall — realized I just did not know enough about geopolitics to properly do what I wanted to do.

So I scrapped the concept.

But I still wanted to rant via subtext about much I fucking hated the rise of Trumplandia, so I turned to the work of Stieg Larsson. Not only was he older when he got published, but there was one specific book of his — The Girl Who Played With Fire — that I loved so much that I could read over and over again with no problem.

So, I decided to write a novel about a strange little Southern town that would, in its political geography, allow me to explore an allegory about how much I fucking hate Trumplandia. Everything was going great until I realize the story was too big — I split the novel into two, with the first novel ending in a cliffhanger.

Again, everything was going great. I was figuring out how to lay out this universe, thinking that Trump would, through hook or through crook brazenly steal the 2020 election and everyone who read it would be like, “Ahh, of course! This is about the modern dystopian hellscape that is autocratic America.”

And then Trump choked and prove himself too big a fucking lazy moron to do what I — and a lot of other people — assume he would do.

When Biden became POTUS, I realized I had a problem. I felt uncomfortable ranting about Trumplandia when Trumplandia didn’t exist. It then occurred to me that maybe I could root around in the backstory of how my strange little town came to be.

Over the course of an afternoon, I realize I had two solid concepts that would lay out exactly how things grew so strange in my small Southern town. And THEN, after much struggle, I realized that I needed to split the first book into two. This solved a problem — I hated having four, not five, novels — and it also allowed me to really concentrate on the particulars of the ur event that started the town’s drift towards being an allegory for Trumplandia in the first place.

My literary hero, Stieg Larsson.

So, now I have five novels to write. I’m a little concerned as to the logistics of doing such a thing, but I can learn. I’m very pleased with how things are working out.

Now I have a multigenerational saga about a baby that grows up to be a very Lisbeth Salander-type person. She’s the thing that everyone wants a piece of. And, at the same time, the overall story is greatly influenced by Mare of Easttown in the sense that an older woman is the the “heart” of the five novels. In my instance, of course, that “older woman” happens to look a lot like Olivia Munn.

Anyway. I’m writing novels not screenplays. So, lulz, it may turn out that all of this is a fool’s errand. But to date all I’ve done with my life is start a failed monthly magazine for expats in Seoul. I believe I can pull another rabbit out of my hat and top that in a big way by writing five engaging novels that are also a seering take down (via subtext) of the bonkers insanity that is Trumplandia.

I really fucking hate the MAGA New Right.

Running The WW3 Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of talk these days about the possibility of World War Three happening. Well, let’s think about how it might happened and what it would, in practical terms, look like.

The first issue is we don’t know if Putin is a rational actor or not on the world stage. But, then, we didn’t expect him to invade Ukraine and he did that, so we have to take seriously that he might go after the Baltic states who are members of NATO.

If he did that, then, yes, in a legal sense WW3 would begin. But a lot would depend on what happened after that. If Putin just fucked with the Baltic states, that wouldn’t really be WW3 unless there was some sort of limited nuclear exchange. Him just scaring the shit out of the Baltics enough that it was considered an act of war and caused them to invoke NATO’s Article 5…would just be really meaningless – but scary — events.

What Putin would need would be an Axis of some sort. He would need other major powers who wanted to challenge Pax America as well to act in unison with him. This would require, of course, Putin to convince President Xi of China to attack Taiwan — potentially with tactical nukes after Putin had broken that particular taboo himself in Ukraine.

Xi might, in turn, lean on the North Koreans to go after the the South Koreans as some sort of distraction. And, if Putin was REALLY LUCKY, he might be able to rope Iran into this particular clusterfuck as well.

As all of this was happening, you would also probably have India and Pakistan going at it as well. So, there you go. That would be WW3 and there would be no assurances that either Pax America survives or that, well, any of us survives.

Thriller Novel Series Development Silliness: Casting Maggie Q Or Olivia Munn As ‘The Heart’ Of This Series


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is the height of foolishness and self-indulgence to cast characters in any hypothetical movie adaptation of a novel you’re working on — especially if you’re just an aspiring novelist like me and don’t have anything finished to show people.

But I need to let off some steam. Things are going really well at the moment with this first novel in what I hope is a 5 (3 + 2) series of books and, lulz, no one cares what I say anyway.

Anyway, the point is, as I’ve written before, the character who I see as the “heart” of this overall project could be played very well by Olivia Munn. She’s about the right age and looks pretty much exactly how I see the character in my imagination as I write her.

I have noticed another woman who could play the character, however. Maggie Q. She, too, is very close to what I imagine the character who is the “heart” of this series looking like.

Remember, these project has ballooned into a multi-generational saga. These two women wouldn’t be playing my equivalent of Stieg Larsson’s Lisbeth Salander, but rather someone who cares deeply for that character. Though, I will note there is ANOTHER character that Maggie Q probably would be better suited as in the series — a love interest for the hero of two of the books.

My interpretation of the Lisbeth Salander trope would be, in my dreams of a movie, portrayed by Zendaya.