by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
We really need to manage our expectations when it comes to this war in the near term. It could very well be that the Russians will “win” in the near term simply because they’re bloodthirsty enough to burn Ukraine to the ground to get what they want.
My fear for the future of Ukraine.
Part of this would be the fall of Kyiv.
What worries me is not so much what this would mean for events on the ground — the Ukrainians would keep fighting, no matter what — as it it would mean for the Western media narrative.
If and when Kyiv falls, then the Western media might grow a lot more doom -and -gloom about Ukraine’s prospects. To the point that they might move on to the next big news event. Which, come to think of it, they are going to do anyway, given the impending arrival of the political silly season later on this year as part of the the 2022 mid-terms.
So, in a sense, if the Russians don’t sue for peace, but rather escalate things and simply burn Ukraine to the ground, the whole thing might become background noise to the more pressing issue of Trump potentially becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.
Thus, I think we may look back on 2016 as the last “normal” year we’re going to have for a long, long time. In fact, the era between 2016 and, maybe 2030 could be seen as a macro “Great Reset” that either leaves humanity united and able to handle Big Issues like Global Climate change or hopelessly divided to the point that our continued existence is moot.
Anyway, the the clock is ticking. If the Russo-Ukrainian Winter war drags on beyond winter and is still going strong this fall, then everything will be different. If it’s still going on next year, then the quisling MAGA politicians who will then be running Congress may lulz the whole thing since they’ll be impeaching both Biden and Harris repeatedly.
