by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
State of Play, as of about February 26, 2022
Things are very curious right now in Ukraine. I say this because we’ve reach the point where it is clear that whatever reasoning Putin used to start the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War clearly is not working out.
So, we’re at something of an impasse.
Logically, Putin would sue for peace and retreat back to status quo ante borders (maybe even giving Crimea back to Ukraine.) But we don’t know for a fact that Putin is still a rational actor. He could be bonkers. And we are still just in the early days of the war.
So where does that leave us?
Well, I think we have to take seriously the idea that Something Bad might happen that would escalate the situation in Ukraine significantly. It’s possible that the Russians would use thermobaric rockets on major Ukrainian cities and burn them to the ground, much like what they did to Chechnya. This would make an already serious situation even worse, but it would likely give the Russians the quick fix of some significant victories.
And then there is the idea that Putin has really lost his mind and he might use some form of tactical nuclear weapon (or WMD in general) on the Ukrainians. That would greatly, and I do mean greatly, aggravate the situation. But, in real terms, NATO and the USA wouldn’t do anything. They would get really, really mad, but they wouldn’t do anything.
The consequences of the Russians using some form of WMD on Ukraine out of desperation would be unexpected and long lasting. Ukrainians would be enraged and there might be a spontaneous revolution / civil war in Russia. And, who knows, once the slice the seal on using WMD, China might think they could get away with using them on Taiwan.
And that doesn’t even begin to address the situation with the DPRK and ROK. It would be a real new geopolitical world, one that was dark and as uncertain as the interwar period that led the WW2. Add to this that the United States is tearing itself apart and facing the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025, and, well, lulz.
So, something’s gotta give. One way or another, things are going to change. I suppose things might continue the way they are going if the Russians managed some sort of major breakout, but that remains to be seen if that is still even possible.
Pray.
