by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Russia’s current tactics in Ukraine don’t make much sense. The Ukrainians still have electricity and Internet access and who, exactly, has control of the air is up for debate.
All of this is even more curious when you remember what the Russians did to Chechnya over the course of two wars there.
As such, it seems possible that the worst has yet to come. It could be that Russia may be willing to burn the entirety of Ukraine to the ground to achieve its goals. Of course, there would be dramatic consequences for both Ukraine, Russia and the world if this happened. I continue to be nervous about the potential use of the Russian equivalent of the American MOAB if they can’t get what they want. Or, worse yet, low-grade tactical nukes.
And, yet, we don’t know if Putin is still a rational actor or not. It could be that he’s now so bonkers that he’s willing to destroy everything simply to get what he wants — Ukraine under the Russian jackboot.
But only time will tell. It could be that this is about to be wrapped up. It could be that Putin will give up far sooner than we might otherwise think. Then, of course, there’s the risk of massive instability within Russia itself. Russians do tend to have major, historical shifts in government because of war defeats.
