by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Here’s my hot take on where things stand at the moment with the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War.
Refugees
We could be in for a massive refugee catastrophe in the coming days. The more it becomes clear that Ukraine might turn into Afghanistan 3.0, the more likely that we’re facing the projected 5 million refugees. Then, you have to worry about where all those people would go. I doubt they would be very welcome long-term in Europe, but because of the innate racism of the America MAGA New Right, it’s possible that because well, Ukrainians are white, that a big portion of that potential 5 million refugees could end up in the US.
Battle For Kyiv
This could be very horrific. And, in the end, if Kyiv falls, I’m assuming the Ukrainian government will fall back to Lviv. That would mark the end of the beginning of the war. And if the president of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dies at the hands of the Russians in the next few days, he will become a martyr to the cause and the they will unleash the gates of hell.
The Nightmare Scenario
There is the possibility, of course, that Putin is no longer a “rational actor” and he might strike major Ukrainian cities with either really big conventional bombs or really small nuclear bombs. In either case, that would push the whole world into a new, very unstable era. Once the taboo against using any form of nuclear weaponry is broken — for any reason and at any size –then all eyes turn to the DPRK, India, Israel, etc. Things could get very dark very quickly.
The Southern Front
This is something we’re not paying enough attention to. The Russians have a major breakout in the south of the Ukraine in the Crimea. They could split up their forces so they go east to Odessa while going west behind the line of contact in Donbass. They would also just go straight north and head for Kyiv. The whole of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River could collapse because of this souther breakout.
Russian Instability
It’s possible that the thing we’ve all predicted if Putin invaded Ukraine in a big way — some sort of Russian Revolution / Civil War — may very well happen. It probably won’t happen anytime soon, but we definitely have a potential setup for it happening around 2024 – 2025. This, of course, would be just about the same time the US will have its own existential choice of civil war or autocracy. Talk about Great Reset!
