by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Things do not seem to be going well for Putin in Ukraine. As such, my fear is, since he seems to be kind of bonkers, that he might use either a Russian version of a MOAB or some sort of low-grade nuclear weapon. Something really small, but would get the point across.
The hope would be, of course, to demoralize the Ukrainian populace to the point that they would just give up. But there are lots of reasons to think this won’t happen. First, I don’t know if the Russians even have such weaponry. Second, Putin may be bonkers, but he must know that the exact opposite will happen — dropping any sort of WMD on Ukraine — however small — would likely freak everyone out.
A lot rests on if Putin continues to be a “rational actor” or not. Is he bonkers? Has he lost it? He has several times recently spoken of nuclear weapons for this or that reason and if he really got desperate I suppose it’s possible he might use tactical nukes on Ukraine.
But, again, any use of nuclear weapons — be they low grade or tactical — would so upend the global political order that, well, lulz. We’re very much in the early days of this clusterfuck and a lot of things could go either way, depending on the vagaries of war.
We’re definitely fully locked in to the “Holy shit” point of this war and we’re only in the first few days. The longer this thing drags on, the more likely something really fucked up and unexpected might happen that escalates things significantly.
Anyway, only time will tell. It will be interesting to see how bonkers Putin ultimately turns out to be. If he tries to take all of Ukraine, then we will know that he really has lost his mind.
