by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
A number of signs all point towards some sort of major military event happening between Russia and Ukraine on or around February 20th. The Olympics are set to end on that date. The Russians are set to rattle their nuclear sabers around then. And, in general, the Russians waiting until around then would allow the to get everything in place to strike.
Because the issue is — for all the Russian declarations about standing down and everyone going back to base, this is not, in fact happening. All the OSINT that I see on Twitter indicates that rather than standing down, the Russians are aggressively positioning their forces closer and closer to the Ukrainian border.
This is the point where I note that I always get things wrong. Always. So, I would take my prediction with a grain of salt. It could be that for various tactical reasons — the weather, Xi’s request for a week global peace after the Olympics, you name it — that it could be as late as February 26th.
Or it may not happen at all.
I can’t predict the future. But as of right now, the night of February 20th US EST seems about right. Though, the counter argument is the Russians would wait until Monday morning EST to get their maximum bang for their buck when it comes to shocking the American audience.
