by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Welp. Apparently we’ve been given our 48 hour warning for a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. It’s probably going to happen — if it does happen — at some point between now and no later than February 15 (probably the 14th).
First, we have to prepare ourselves for American civilian expats to come home in body bags. I’m assuming there are too many of them to leave in time. And there’s a chance that the entirety of Ukraine will go tits up soon after any invasion begins. So, there’s that to think about.
And, remember, the moment a war starts, everything in the United States will be thrown up in the air because there is a finite amount of air in the public sphere for attention. So, in a sense, Trump might escape AGAIN simply because we’re so busy thinking about 5 million Ukrainian refugees that we don’t have time to worry about his bullshit.
Or something.
And now, in just the last little bit, we’ve learned there is some confusion coming out the US government as to what, exactly, is going to happen. What I think is happening is Biden told allies he thinks Putin has made up his mind and that promptly leaked out. Meanwhile, the rest of the government is publicly saying Putin HASN’T made up his mind in hopes of preventing the whole thing having an air of inevitability to it.
I would, however, suggest you keep Twitter and CNN / MSNBC close for the next few days. Go time will probably be in the 6:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. EST time frame, whatever day it does — or doesn’t happen.
