Month: January 2022

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Reading Barbara F. Walter’s book about how civil wars start, it definitely seems as though she’s convinced that if the United States has a civil war it will be the center-Right that starts it.

She hasn’t come out and said it so far, but from everything about the wink-wink nature of the book indicates that she’s pointing a finger at white Christian Traditionalists.

I have to politely disagree with this assessment.

She’s being short-sighted. I say this because I believe any civil war that may happen in the United States will happen for tactical reasons in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. It will be the center-Left that is pushed to the breaking point around then, not the center-Right. The center-Right is ascendant and well on its way to sucker punching the center-Left to the point that any civil war that happens in the United States will focused around not race, or economics but the more abstract notion of, “Is the United States a democracy or a Constitutional Republic?”

I say this because that’s the sticking point that ends political debate between myself and my Traditionalists relatives. So, when the time comes in 2024 – 2025, the lines will be drawn between people who think Republicans have stymied the will of the people and those who think “the system worked” and, fuck you lib.

Not that I don’t think that the MAGA New Right might not start a civil war. But if they did, it would be at some point between now and 2024. The most obvious reason such a civil war would start would be some unexpected pressure on our already fragile political system — probably Trump shuffling off this mortal coil for some reason. The MAGA New Right so so primed to assume that the Deep State has it out for Trump that his untimely demise would be, unto itself, enough for them to take up arms and start a civil war like Ms. Walter believes may happen.

Otherwise, however, it is that existential issue of ‘What is the United States?” that will ultimately be the demise of the Second American Republic. The GQP already rants about how they want a “National Divorce,” not thinking about how messy it would be and inevitable lead to violence that would include WMD.

So, should Republicans brazenly steal the 2024 either through Steve Bannon’s “administrative coup” or by playing the Constitution itself like xylophone, the two sides will both believe they have a legitimate claim to the presidency, which will cause Blue States to begin to leave the Union.

If the brazen theft of the 2024 election doesn’t cause Blue States to leave the Union, then we transition peacefully from an anocracy to an autocracy. Though, I believe there is a really good chance that in the biggest irony of all, Republicans could win the 2024 election fair and square, only to blow it all because they cheat.

So, we would be in a position where a civil war starts because the Republicans cheat, even though in hindsight it’s obvious they would have won anyway.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve come to believe that because of a lack of Blue leadership, the United States is going to peacefully transition from anocracy into a full-fledged autocratic white Christian minority rule of blood and soil. Traditionalists’ only red line is personal, so lulz, that’s it.

And, yet, as I keep saying, I do find myself vacillating widely between believing autocracy is our most obvious endgame to believe civil war is. But, for the moment, autocracy seems the most logical outcome because there just isn’t enough Blue leadership to organize any serious political opposition against the rise of autocracy in the United States.

But I also keep saying that the ultimate endgame of the American Second Republic will probably be decided by tactical events in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. Things I can’t predict.

And the key thing I can’t predict is California’s reaction to the United States becoming an autocracy. The Bear State Republic is the one Blue State with the means, motive and opportunity to bounce out of the Union at some point in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. If they just shrug, then we peacefully become an autocracy.

If, however, they bounce, then we have a civil war. I guess it’s possible that the autocrat will be so happy to get rid of the liberal-progressives of California that they will let “wayward sister, part in peace.” But California has a huge economy and it’s just as possible that the new autocrat in Washington D.C. will try to rope them back into the Union.

That, in turn, could cause states from New York to Illinois to step up and leave the Union as well. This is the point when things get murky. This is the point where there is no obvious endgame this far out from the actual events. Does the whole country just collapse, or do the two sides start to bomb each other into the Stone Age with seized WMD?

This is something I just don’t know. So, we have something of a spectrum, ranging from peaceful transition into autocracy on one end to bombing ourselves into the Stone Age on the other.

Where things will actually fall remains something of a mystery for the next few years. Good luck.

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m of the opinion that we’ve reached the danger zone for a Second American Civil War. But for it to happen, it would require some unexpected additional pressure on our political system. So, the soonest a Second American Civil War might happen is, well, right now.

Why we might NOT have a civil war:

1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
   For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
2. Republicans have gamed the system.
   It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
3. Not Trump 2024
   Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
   
4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
   A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
   Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

But for it to happen, something big would have to happen, like Trump suddenly shuffling off this mortal coil in his sleep. The instance that happened, the MAGA New Right would assume that the Deep State offed him and away we go. There would be massive rolling political violence across the nation to the point that Barbara F. Walter would say was a “civil war.”

And, yet, in real terms, if you’re living in Kansas and you’re concerned about when the civil war is going to start, I would suggest you have until around 2024 – 2025 to start worrying about forces from California forcing your children to become transgender.

Of note is the if Trump become Speaker of the House in 2023 after the House flips, that’s another moment when a civil war might start because Speaker Trump specifically incites violence to get the House to impeach the entire Biden / Harris administration.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
   Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
   It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
3. Trump 2024
   Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
4. Steve K Bannon.
   Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
5. Extreme negative polarization
   We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
6. A lack of shared values
   As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
   It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

But, again, it’s 2024 – 2025 that is when the shit is going to hit the fan. That’s when our anocracy transitions into a full blown autocracy or we have a civil war and bomb ourselves into the Stone Age. And, remember, even then, a civil war will only happen if Blue States — starting with California — decide to leave the Union.

Otherwise, lulz. It’s possible we’ll just shrug and become an autocracy without even putting up any sort of fight.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.