Be The Power
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Here are the three possible invasion paths that the Russians might take should they start a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. There is something of a time limit — if the Russians don’t make a decision one way or another pretty soon, the spring thaw is going to kick in and they will be faced with a lot of mud and not much territory taken.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Of all the reasons why I’m likely to get “canceled” should I manage to sell these five novels, my absolute white hot rage against the dumb “half-joke” of the Bechdel Test is probably going to be up there. The reason why I hate the fucking Bechdel Test so much is it totally misses the point of doing anything creative.
If you’re so beholden to some arbitrary ideological requirement for your art, then I find any of your art suspect. You produce art because you want to make people’s lives better. For me, I write because I have to, not because I want to. And the idea of having to stand on one leg and pat my head because of a creative requirement first articulated in a comic of all things, is just a little too much.
I say this as someone who loves writing female characters and is very self-conscious about how I portray women. The representation in my art is organic and I try to do it as much as possible. But don’t tell me how to tell my story because of your Leftist — or Rightist — preconceived notions of what makes a good story.
My responsibility is to tell a great yarn. If, by telling that great yarn, it just so happens to pass the Bechdel Test, that’s great. I will be pleased. But don’t deduct points from my story if it doesn’t.
Save America
Lyrics by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Please give credit if you produce or perform
everybody wants to point fingers
tell us how to save America
one way or another
but let me tell you
she doesn’t need saving
she’s ready to rock
like she did before
save America
hush your mouth
we don’t need your clout
to save Lady Lib-er-ty
she’s already all we need
we can live off her smile
not wallow in the mud
or worry about the blood
Save America
no need
Save America
don’t you fret
she’s already safe as can be
save America
save America
save America
is a dumb idea
(bridge)
some say we’re on
the edge of distruction
but I believe we’re ready to rock
like we did before
to save America is to ignore
what united us like in times of yore
Save America
no need
Save America
don’t you fret
she’s already safe as can be
save America
save America
save America
is a dumb idea
These lyrics are very silly and dumb. But I thought it would be amusing to write some lyrics devoted to Ye’s latest muse Julia Fox
Dat Ass
Lyrics by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Please give credit if you produce or perform
She’s the girl for Ye
So she’s the girl for me
Gorgeous as can be
She’s got the grove
All the boys are overjoyed
When they see
Dat ass
Dat ass
Is over the top
Makes all the boy’s tongue’s
Drop
Drop
Drop
She’s more than a pretty face
She’s got all the grace
That Hollywood needs
She gets the boys on their knees
When she walks on by
Giving them a little smile
But we all know the truth
It’s dat ass that makes us choke
Dat ass
Dat ass
Is over the top
Makes all the boy’s tongue’s
Drop
Drop
Drop
(bridge)
It’s not for me to say
If she’s a fox that can slay
But trust me son
In the end we’ll all get it
‘cause she’s a babe
With a lovely face
Dat ass
Dat ass
Is over the top
Makes all the boy’s tongue’s
Drop
Drop
Drop
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The more I learn about Ye’s new muse Julia Fox, the more I find her intriguing. She seems rather…wide open…about her life, but unlike Kim Kardashian, she seems to actually have some discernible talent.
Fox seems like an actual person worth becoming a stan of, unlike most of the Kardashian clan that seems to simply fill a cultural niche because…they fill a cultural niche. (I exclude Kendall from this evaluation because she is actually gorgeous enough to be a model.)
I’m impressed that Ye would pick Fox, of all people, to be his muse. As a creative person myself, I could definitely see where she might inspire art. (Especially dat ass — holy shit.)
But she’s more than a pretty face and thicc ass, she genuinely seems like an interesting person unto herself. I honestly barely know anything about her, but the information I’ve passively learned about her in dribs and drabs has been compelling.
I look forward to her coming unto her own in the 2020s. Maybe, if things like Fox continue to bubble up to the cultural surface, not everything will be a dystopian hellscape of civil war or autocracy.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m a nobody in the rural part of a fly over state. I don’t know anything about anything. But in my travels around the world over the years, I have noticed that people from Perth, Australia are some of the most unique in the world. They’re very interesting, creative people.
So, whenever my mind wander into what might happen to some of the deeper Blue portions of America like Hollywood, I think of Perth. If the movie industry were to, en mass flee autocratic America, they would do worse than to go to Perth. Now, Perth is in the middle of nowhere. It’s pretty much a long ways away from everywhere.
But the weather is decent and it would be a great place for all the Deep Blue Hollywood types to live once Hollywood is finally consumed by Immersive Media. I have to note, in passing how annoyed I am at how many center-Left people already have one foot out the door when it comes to the United States. I mean, come on, people, you don’t have the gumption to stand and fight for the freedoms that have made you so wealthy?
Ugh. Fuck that and fuck them.
But anyway, the issue is — we all have to prepare for some severe turbulence in the United States between now and no later than January 2025. Everyone is going to have to pick a side based on what they believe. It’s just sad that so many Twitter liberals who could otherwise help the cause of saving freedom and democracy in the United States are cowards and would rather run away than help defend the idea that the America really is the land of the free, home of the brave.
Or put another way — just because Trump was too stupid and lazy to “not lose” the 2020 election, doesn’t mean he won’t be able to “not lose” the 2024 election. We’re totally fucked no matter what. We’re just not going to muddle through this crisis like we have with other major events in our history in the past.
The years 2024 – 2025 will be the biggest political crisis in American domestic history since the secession crisis of 1860 – 1861. Either you’re prepared for it when it happens, or you’re not.
Good luck.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
All indications are that if the United States doesn’t buckle and have a civil war and instead becomes an autocracy that many, many center-Left people are going to vote with their feet and leave the country. I mention this to the Traditionalists I know and instead of growing alarmed at how much this would hurt the nation we both love, they get rather defensive. They get wrapped up in the idea that I’m somehow suggesting that Reds aren’t as economically productive as Blues.
I find this very, very bonkers.
But it’s a sign of how bad things are right now in the United States. Red and Blue hate each other so much that they no longer have any shared sense of national identity. Everything, EVERYTHING, is seen through the prism of partisan politics, right down to the effects of an American Diaspora.
And, yet, here we are. I think it’s clear that many, many wealthy and economically productive center-Left people in the United States already have one foot out of the door. I keep seeing on Twitter center-Left people talking about how they’re getting non-American passports as backup for the possibility that they may simply decamp.
It’s things like this that make me think the center-Left, when the time comes in 2024 – 2025, is simply going to give up and let us slip peacefully into autocracy. There will be a lot of angry Twitter rants by Twitter liberals, but they will be written in Paris, not New York City.
Another scenario is both things happen. We have a civil war and a lot of center-Left people leave the country because of the instability. I struggle to figure out where all these center-Left Twitter liberals will ultimately settle, however. As I’ve written before, I think it’s at least possible that somewhere like the Philippines might benefit a great deal from America sliding into autocracy. The weather is hot, it has a historical connection to the United States and it’s big enough to handle many, many Americans settling there.
I also think somewhere like Perth might enjoy a cultural rebirth. Everyone I’ve ever met from Perth was really interesting and creative and it seems like that would be a perfect place for Hollywood to settle in the event of some sort of massive clusterfuck in the United States, in 2024 – 2025.
But one thing is clear — the United States can no longer simply sleepwalk through history. History has one eye open now and will be wide awake by the time the Republicans flip the House and Senate later this year. Everything is going to change once Republicans have power again. They’re going to impeach both Biden and Harris and generally things are going to suck.
The years 2023 – 2024 are likely to be just one long impeachment trial of the entire Biden / Harris Administration. Add to this how Republicans are already screaming at the top of their lungs how they plan to brazenly steal the 2024 election and…oh boy.
Anyway. As I keep saying — get ready. Things are going to get pretty bumpy in the United States very, very soon.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I really liked this movie. It was a nice middling movie based on a late 70s to mid-80s memoir. It had a lot of great music and an excellent, stand out performance by Ben Affleck. He should at least get a Oscar nom for his performance.
My only quibbles were that it was a bit too on-the-nose with its maudlin, heartfelt memories. Ok, we get it. And, really, the one thing that bugged the shit out of me was the romantic subplot. I’m sure it’s far more fleshed out in the book that the movie was based on, but I just wasn’t feeling it.
I did not have any emotional attachment to the Hero’s longing for the young woman he was so smitten for. There was no there there. It was a meh romance because it all happened so quickly and was rushed over that I just didn’t care. I know the movie couldn’t have been 3 hours to accommodate making that particular important subplot more viable, but, still.
I would have just cut that element of the story altogether if they weren’t going to finesse it enough to make the audience care.
Also, it is amusing that Affleck had a supporting role, but totally dominated the movie. It felt very much like a Affleck vehicle, even though it obviously wasn’t. Anyway, I really liked The Tender Bar.
Two thumbs up, as they say.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I really enjoyed Barbara F. Walter’s “How Civil Wars Start…And How To Stop Them.” I recommend it. It’s extremely well written and thought out. But, sad to say, it’s severely flawed as well. Not that you shouldn’t buy it, you should, but you should go into it knowing that it’s fighting battles that either don’t exist or are impossible to solve.
The first problem is her exclusive focus on the notion that the MAGA New Right will not only be the origin of any second civil war in the United States, but that any such civil war won’t be a “civil war” in the traditional sense, but rather something akin closer to The Troubles of Northern Ireland. I take issue with this because, lulz, the MAGA New Right is running around, yelling at the top of its lungs how it plans to seize control of the United States without firing a shot. They are ascendant, they have no reason to start any hot civil war.
But you know who will in 2024 – 2025?
Blue States, starting probably with California. The Bear State Republic attempting to leave the Union would cause a cascading series of events which would leave us with a pitched battle between Blue America and Trumplandia. Either the U.S. Military collapses as Blues leave it to establish the armed forces of Blue America, or we endup with some sort of military junta that tries to put the country back together long enough for, say, a Constitutional Convention to be held.
The other severe flaw with the book is the solutions she proposes. All of them are bullshit. Not one of them will ever be implemented. We’re not South Africa. We don’t have any leadership with the ability to put the needs of the nation first. And, besides, we have a winner-take-all system of government and Senate. The MAGA New Right will never, ever for any reason allow any of the reforms she suggests will help us avoid a civil war.
There are only two possible solutions to the massive clusterfuck we find ourselves in — civil war or autocracy. And if we do have a civil war, we will bomb ourselves into the Stone Age in the context of WW3 taking place. The globe will be wracked with a conflagration far worse than WW2.
We are completely, totally fucked in the extreme. Lincoln’s Second American Republic is fucking doomed one way or another. The thing that Traditionalists believe will happen — that they will get all the goodies of white Christian minority rule without the downside of autocracy — simply isn’t going to happen.
In the end, loudmouth cranks like me are going to have our heads bashed in by ICE at the direction of the autocrat or we’re going to become one of millions of domestic political refugees who find succor in a Blue State or in, I dunno, Canada.
You have until about 2024 to get your affairs in order. I suggest you do so.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
While I’m really digging Barbara F Walter’s book, “How Civil War’s Start,” there are two major assessments on her part that I disagree with. One is she focuses on the MAGA New Right and it’s radicalization as the source of a potential civil war. She’s really invested in the idea that it will be the MAGA New Right that starts some sort of rolling political violence in the coming years.
Sorry, lady, but I have to call bullshit on that.
The MAGA New Right is ascendant in the United States. They have no reason to start a civil war. Yes, they’re full of rage and feel politically disenfranchised, but they’re going to win both the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election (even if they have to brazenly steal it), so it makes no sense for it to the MAGA New Right that starts a civil war.
But it WOULD make a lot of sense for, say, California to get fed up with the MAGA New Right bullshit in 2024 – 2025 and attempt to leave Union. And it’s within the realm of possibility that this could cause the U.S. Military to buckle as well as other Blue States follow California out the door.
So, it’s the center-Left we have to worry about when thinking about a Second American Civil War, not the MAGA New Right. But I don’t know things will get that far. The American center-Left is so weak, so fractious that it’s possible that we’ll slip peacefully into a MAGA New Right autocracy at some point in 2025 and that will be that.
Instead of a civil war, hundreds of thousands of center-Left Americans will vote with their feet and flee for Canada and beyond. This, at the moment, seems far more likely than any type of civil war. I tell my Traditionalists relatives about this scenario and they just get mad that I suggest that the MAGA New Right isn’t as economically productive as the center-Left, totally ignoring how this process might hurt the nation in general.
Ugh. Makes me so angry.
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