by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I simply have no idea what to think right now about the prospect of war or peace between Ukraine and Russia. On one hand, the Biden Administration is acting like a major land war could happen at any moment in Europe, while the Ukrainians are puzzled as to why this is being suggested.
A number of things seem to be happening at the same time. Yes, the Russians are amassing a large number of troops near Ukraine. But what they aren’t doing is just as telling — they’re not sending in the necessary support infrastructure needed to do the the thing we’re all worried they will do: invade. What’s more there is definitely a momentum for a war between Ukraine and Russia to start sooner rather than later.
So, I don’t know.
I guess you might square the circle by saying that, yes, a war is going to happen soon, but just not as soon as the Biden Administration seems to believe. So, at some point in the next few weeks the war will start, just not as late as February 20th.
Or, put another way, something has to change. Something that makes it clear that what is going to happen one way or another. There is plenty — plenty — of time for things to calm down and go back to “normal.” It’s just that there is a real risk that it’s too late for Putin to back down without looking weak. Of course, there is the possibility that it will be the Ukrainians who back down at the last moment and all of Putin’s flexing will look really smart.
But everything is up in the air. I have no idea what is going to happen. We’re all just going to have to wait and see. It really could go either way at this point.
