by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m no expert on this issue and you should probably ignore me with extreme prejudice, but here’s my hot take on what Putin’s war aims in Ukraine might be. First, we still don’t know that there’s going to be a war. All the signs point to a war — a major one — but it’s still possible that in the end all these troop movements are just one big flex.
Things have gotten so bad, of course, that if Putin did pull back he would look weak and intimidated by the West. But Putin works in mysterious ways, so that’s an option that’s still open.
But, for the sake of argument, let’s say Putin pulls the trigger instead of pulling back and we find ourselves with the biggest land war in Europe since 1945. Then what? Well, it seems as though Putin believes he can get what he wants through a combination of war and politics. He swoops in from the north, takes Kiev in conjunction with a massive offensives coming out of Crimea and Donbass and that will be that. At the end of the process, either he simply annexes eastern Ukraine or he’s able to force some sort of political re-organization of Ukraine so it’s under his jackboot from here on out.
I’ve learned two things I did not know recently. One is, the issue of mud in eastern Ukraine isn’t as big a deal as I thought was — there are plenty of roads for the Russians to ride their tanks on. And, second, eastern Ukraine geographically isn’t exactly the greatest place to stage a long-term insurrection.
So, apparently, if Putin can simply overwhelm the Ukrainians with enough arms, one can see why he might think he could get away with a major invasion of eastern Ukraine. And, yet, I don’t know about that. It seems to me the Ukrainians have enough sense of national identity now that Putin is making a major miscalculation.
The western, more European-oriented portion of Ukraine simply will not allow Russia to do what it wants to do. At least not without a fight. Every scenario you can think up about a major invasion of Ukraine by Russia ends with the same endgame — a resource draining war with the rump Ukrainian state that ultimately is the downfall not just of Putin, but the modern Russian state. The Russian economy is just too small — about the size of Italy’s — and the Ukrainians too determined for there to be any other outcome.
I’m not saying everything would happen in a straight line. There would be ups and downs and zigs and zags to this endgame, but on a long-term, macro level, that’s where all roads lead to.
But, like I said, I’m not an expert. In fact, I pretty much always get things wrong. So, buyer beware.
