by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It’s my personal conviction that if Russia attacks Ukraine in a big, historic manner this winter that it will mark the end of the post-World War 2 liberal order. The one that millions died for between the years 1937 and 1945. I say this because it would be the first time since 1945 when there was a war this big in somewhere as important as Europe.
There have been a number of invasions — most of them by the Soviets — during the Cold War — but they would be relatively limited compared to the damage that a war between Russia and Ukraine would cause. There would be refugees in the 100,000s and causalities in the 10,000s. It’s possible that Russia might set off a series of events within Ukraine that go far beyond anything they believe possible.
It’s within the realm of possibility that Ukraine might simply collapse into mass chaos. Far Right nationalists could spring up, powered by pure, white hot irredentism. What’s more, the United States is so mind-bogglingly divided at the moment that no matter what happened between Russia and Ukraine, once the war started China could very well be emboldened enough to attack Taiwan in the next few years (months?)
The most disturbing element of all of this is how, because of long term macro trends, the United States ship of state is sinking and sinking fast. Something big is going to happen to the United States between now and, say, January 2025 and there’s nothing we can do to stop it. Everything is in place and nothing is going to fix the systemic issues that will cause the United States to either slide into autocracy or have a massive, tragic civil war.
A Russo-Ukrainian War would just be the beginning of an epic, historic era of instability not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939. With the United States careening towards a dark, unstable future and the Russians having eaten a huge chunk of Ukraine, it could be open season across the globe in ways we’ve not seen in generations.
Take, for instance, the DPRK. The last few days have seen some ominous statements come out of Pyongyang. What happens if, in the middle of a Russo-Ukrainian War, the DPRK begins to saber rattle by shooting off ICBMs and testing H-bombs? That would only add to the global sense of chaos and instability.
And, remember, if two major regional wars were happening at the same time — Russia / Ukraine and China / Taiwan — it would be very hard for the American press to resist the temptation to brand it all World War 3. What’s more, as I mentioned, the United States is careening towards either autocracy or civil war no later than January 2025.
So. Enjoy these twilight days of stability. Things could get pretty lit pretty quick. Maybe within a few days.
