by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Here are the questions I have right now about any potential Russo-Ukrainian Winter War.
- Why now?
This is a real mystery. I guess the case could be made that Putin isn’t getting any younger and he wants to seize the crown jewel of a new Russian Empire while he’s still alive, damn the long-term consequences. It helps that he’s not really getting any push back from the West. It could be that Putin has finally lost his fucking mind and he just doesn’t care anymore. It helps that Trump isn’t president anymore because if Putin invaded Ukraine with Trump president in the United States, then the jig would be up about Trump being in Putin’s pocket.
- When exactly will the invasion happen?
This is a real tricky one. I just don’t know. From what I can glean from Twitter, the real warning sign we have to keep an eye on is when the troops to man all the equipment Putin is putting in place arrive. When those troops arrive, then we’ll know we’re going to the show. Then it will be go time. - What happens in the 48 hour warning zone?
There is going to be a window between when Putin decides to invade and when the invasion begins. That is, I think, just the nature of modern warfare. It makes me wonder what will happen in those 48 hours. What will be the reaction of the West? Is there anything they can do? Or do we just watch in horror as Russia prepares to smash across the Ukrainian border?
- What will be the implications of Russians avoiding cities?
This would probably be a dumb question if I knew anything about military tactics, but it seems as though if the Russians simply avoid cities — other than, say, Kiev, that they’re setting themselves up for a major clusterfuck. Just because the Russians would control the general political area known as “Ukraine,” if the cities aren’t controlled, then they would be a serious source of organize opposition to any Russian occupation. I could the Russians being sucked into a Ukrainian civil war no matter how successful they might otherwise be on the ground. - How does Russia plan to keep the territory it grabs?
Any political victory on the part of the Russians in Ukraine — by the government in Kiev suing for peace — would be just the beginning. The West is already sending material to Ukraine and that will only increase once there’s an actual invasion. So, we would be looking at a situation very similar to Afghanistan in the 1980s, only in modern Europe and a far bigger population. No matter how successful the Russians were in the first part of a Russo-Ukrainian War, they are going to get bogged down. - How much territory does Russia plan to take?
I think this one will be determined by how well the Ukrainians are at fending off the first wave of the invasion. It definitely looks like the Russians are going to come at Kiev from the north in an effort to get the Ukrainians to sue for peace. But even if that was successful, all that is likely to do is cause the Ukrainian government to collapse and a bunch of nationalists will take over who are absolutely determined to drive the Russians out. Things would only get worse for the Russians if they decide to take the entirety of Ukraine. Talk about a clusterfuck! Them going into the more Westernized parts of Ukraine would be a disaster in the making. And Russia bumping up against the border of NATO states would freak the entirety of Western Europe out, no matter how much the Germans want to stick their heads in the sand.
- What will be the response in the United States?
I stand by my belief that if there is a general war between Russia and Ukraine that it will be a nearly 9/11 level event within American domestic politics. The reason why I say this is — those first few days worth of horrific war scenes flooding social media will be enough to scare the shit out of liberal women in the exurbs of Philadelphia who always seem to decide American presidential elections. And, there is a limited amount of oxygen in the American media universe. A media circuit breaker will likely be flipped and for a few days — weeks? — all we’re going to talk about is Ukraine. To the point that the January 6th Committee’s investigation may simply drift out into sea, never to be seen from again. This does, however, bring up the question of how the Republicans will deal with a major war between Russia and Ukraine. The base will follow Trump’s lead in sucking up to Putin, while the Republican Establishment will be hysterical and blame Biden for not being strong enough…in defending democracy, something Republicans clearly don’t believe in anymore. - Could Trump self-immolate politically if runs around yapping about how Ukraine isn’t even a real country?
Trump, by definition, is going to embarrass myself when it comes to Ukraine if there’s a war there. He’s going to scream at the top of his longs that Ukraine “isn’t even a real country” to the point that either Republicans tow his line en mass or there’s something akin to a civil war within Republican ranks on the issue of how to address the huge war waging near the heart of Europe. Trump has such absolute control over the Republican Party that I doubt there will be much of a fight. In the end, we will see a surreal flip of political views, with Democrats taking a hard line against Russia and Republicans lulzing it all.
