by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m really excited to read Barbara F. Walter’s book “How Civil Wars Start” because well, I think there’s a 50 / 50 chance of one starting in the United States between now and January 2025.
I listened to her interview on The New Yorker Radio hour and, well, oh boy. While she made a lot of salient points, I totally disagree with her on one thing: she proposes that if there is a civil war in the United States, it will be more like rolling political violence found with The Troubles.
To me, if there is a civil war in 2024 – 2025, it will be because, on a state level BLUE states leave the Union, starting with California. That will set off a chain reaction whereby other Blue States do the same thing. A series of alliances will form and, before you know it, WMD will be used by each side and away we go. So, I believe any civil war in the United States will be catastrophic and set off, on a global scale, WW3.
Now, I could see rolling political violence that is marketed as a “civil war” if, say, Trump somehow shuffles off this mortal coil between now and 2024. MAGA would instantly assume he was knocked off by the Deep State and act accordingly. Then, they would begin to blow shit up to make a point.
Otherwise, though, if we pick civil war instead of autocracy in 2024 – 2025, things are going to be organized at the state level like in the first civil war and everything is going to go to hell in a hand basket pretty fucking quick.
