by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m beginning to think I was wrong — AGAIN — to even contemplate Russia invading Ukraine anytime soon. But, I will note in passing that Putin has something of a deadline at the moment if he wants to lean into the symbolism of Christmas Eve – Christmas Day timeframe
The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Christmas Eve, 1979. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union officially dissolved at noon on Christmas Day, 1991. So, if Putin wants to change the narrative from “30 years since the end of the Soviet Union” to “Holy shit, the Russians have invaded Ukraine” they need to do it, like RIGHT NOW.
If it were to happen, Something Big would probably begin to happen mid-to-late afternoon EST. If we make it to Christmas Eve evening EST without a major Russian cyber attack against Ukraine or any number of other hostile actions, then, lulz, we’ve passed the “twofer” moment.
After that, it could be anytime between now and either Orthodox Christmas or Orthodox New Year’s that the Russo-Ukrainian War might begin. I’m beginning to think that, thankfully, for the near term, things are going to be a dud.
It may happen, just not immediately.
