by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m still very reluctant to believe a major war between Russia and Ukraine is about to break out, but there are some interesting metrics to look at of late. For me, the chief issue is exactly when that paratrooper drop is supposed to happen today.
If it happens in broad daylight, then, lulz, we can take it at face value.
But if it happens after dark, then I’m going to grow really nervous. And the later is happens at night, the more ominous its meaning would become. Because it would be a lot more difficult to track exactly where the drop happened. So, what if instead of Crimea and just to the east of Donbas, the airdrop was in Ukraine proper and the whole thing is a setup for a full blown invasion tomorrow, Christmas Eve?
There is so much I don’t know. Wouldn’t there be a lot of alarming scurrying be seen around Ukraine as everyone turned their tank on and started racing towards the border? Seems like that, unto itself, would take time. Enough time that it wouldn’t be Christmas Eve, but rather something closer to New Year’s. But what do I know?
All I know is the next 24 to 48 hours are critical. If we can get past that time, then I think we’ve passed an immediate danger. And invasion might still happen, but once you get pass starting a major war on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the end of the Soviet Union, then, lulz. You can pretty much do it anytime you want.
I’m always wrong, so I’m not prepared to say a war is actually going to start anytime soon — if ever — but it is something to keep an eye on for the next few days.
