by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The idea of any major war between Russia and Ukraine is very, very stupid for Russia. They would be able to take the land, but they wouldn’t be able to keep it long-term.
That’s why I’ve proposed that any war that Russia began against Ukraine this winter would be very limited and tactical in nature. If I was going to make any predictions about the prospective Russo-Ukrainian Winter War of 2021 – 2022, I would suggest the biggest battle would be the one associated with Mariupol. It’s the biggest Ukrainian city between Donbass in the east and Crimea in the southwest.
So, in my opinion, once Putin secured Mariupol, he would re-evaluate his options. If he were to strike from both Crimea and Donbass and take Mariupol from both directions, I think he would stop altogether. Then, about five years from now, he would begin to move troops towards Odessa. That would be his next target.
The reason why he would do the above plan instead of a far broader attack, he knows that if he took “Kyiv in two weeks” as he has boasted before, that he would be sowing the seeds of his own defeat long term. The rump state of Ukraine would be thrown into chaos and it’s very possible that a far, far right fascist state would be established based on irredentism.
Irredentism is, in short, the political movement of “give us back our land.” As such, if Russians took Kyiv, they would be setting up a very 1980s Afghanistan but in Europe with a far biggest population situation. Everyone from the French to the Swedes would throw military supplies and “advisors” at the Ukraine as the new front line began to take shape.
There’s just no reason that I can think of that Putin would throw his forces into a major regional war against Ukraine when he knows as well as anyone that he would likely significantly destabilize his own country to the point of revolution.
The only thing that might save Putin’s ass in this situation is if China also attacked Taiwan this winter in a big way. Then you would, in effect, have WW3 and a whole different dynamic at play.
As such, I think maps like the below are just FUD on the Russians’ part.
I still don’t even know if it’s all that likely there’s going to be any war between Russia and Ukraine this winter. But is something to contemplate.
