by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m a strong believer in the idea that we’ve passed the tyrannical event horizon. In other words, we’re fucked. We’re going to slip peacefully in the tyranny of autocracy no later than January 2025 — the Fourth Turning, if you will.
There is, of course, a greater-than-zero chance that the most powerful nation in human history could very well have a civil war and bomb itself into the Stone Age of its own volition.
But, for the moment, the Second American Civil War option isn’t really something I think is going to happen, but for how Trump himself is such a fucking lazy, stupid chaos agent that he might cause one by saying “the quiet part out loud” to the point that Blue States grow enraged and leave the Union.
One bit of context I don’t know yet as we lurch towards autocracy is what Mike Pence is ultimately going to do. There is a minor chance that Pence, in his craven desperation to become president, will turn on Trump and become MAGA’s John Dean.
As the 2024 presidential election cycle begins to approach, Pence might see turning on Trump has his last gasp Hail Mary option. The thinking would be, with Trump out of the way, the natural pitched battle between various would-be Republican autocrats can take place.
Because, if you think about it, Pence is the one person with the means, motive and opportunity to do some “front stabbing” as The Mooch might say. All he has to do is lay out everything he saw happen in the Trump White House up close and personal. There a tiny chance that Pence could do just by ending his long-term status as a Trump sycophant more political damage than two impeachments and a special council ever did.
Yet, this is very, very doubtful.
Pence is far more likely to sit on his hands if Trump really does run again. Then the likelihood of a 2ACW becomes far, far greater because Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid that he self-owns by pushing us into an avoidable civil war.
Autocracy is popular in the United States. Fascism is ascendant. So, I dunno. Which would you rather do, slip peacefully into an autocratic state or go through the high risk, high reward trauma of a 2ACW?
