by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Please note: I’m not an expert! I just have a long-time interest in this situation.
Something is going on — again — between the Ukrainians and the Russians. But, what? There has been a years-long “frozen conflict” in eastern Ukraine, to the point where it’s not somewhere one thinks anything is ever going to happen.
For the time being, the Russians like the status quo and, given how small their economy is, even if they were able to take Kiev and and try to establish some sort to Novorossiya, the Russians would not be able to keep it for very long. The one way they might make their Novorossiya dreams come true is swiftly take Kiev, have the Ukrainians sue for peace and then gobble up the land they want strictly through pollical means.
But even that somewhat ideal situation for Russia would be problematic. Eastern Ukraine’s political and ethnic makeup is far from uniform and there would be a lot of nationalists Ukrainians in Eastern Ukraine that would take up arms even if the Russians were able to conslodate power in the region as part of a peace deal.
What’s more, Ukraine signing off that much land to the Russians would enrage nationalists in the rump state and it’s very possible to imagine a far-Right government deciding to do everything in its power to take the lost land back. Which would put Russia in exactly the position was trying to avoid in the first place.
So, it’s very possible that the frozen conflict between Ukraine and Russia might heat up some, but something pretty big would have to go wrong for both sides before we were talking about any sort of general war.
But, having said all that, I am often wrong.
