by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It’s clear to me now that Republicans have figured out how to square the political circle when it comes to sucking from the fetid teet of MAGA while still winning elections.
If you combine how well the Republican Party did overall in 2020 with the results in Virginia, it definitely seems as though all of my hysterical “doom shit” about what might happen in 2024 – 2025 is just that. What is actually going to happen is something far more subtle.
It’s very, very possible that while Trump will cheat simply out of habit, that in the end, there will be no need for him — or the Republican Party — to do so. Republicans are ascendant and now I think they’re going to win fair and square (ish) in 2022 and 2024 and that will be that. We will drift peacefully into autocracy.
When it comes to American democracy, it’s all over but the shouting. Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:
- It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on. - Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that. - Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
- Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now. - Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.
All of the dystopian things that I have long predicted will happen, but the whole move to autocracy will be so popular that the vast majority of conservatives won’t even notice or care what’s going on. They will be so pleased that white people, at last, will secure their minority rule that the fact that ICE has been weaponized, that there’s been a Constitutional Convention and the media has been purged will all be a lulz.
Or, to put it another way, people like me will keep pointing out our drift into autocracy and your typical conservative will barely be able to summon the energy to shrug. They will see things strictly from a policy standpoint and the thing didn’t like — Trump’s personality will fade in importance once he shuffles off this mortal coil. The man can’t live forever.
As such, whomever Trump picks as his veep will become America’s Putin. Some 20 or 30, even 40 years from now, President DeStantis or Pompeo or whomever will still both be constantly depicted in the foreign press as about to be overthrown and consolidating power.
Republicans will push through widely unpopular policies, but because the United States is no longer a functioning democracy, it just won’t matter. So, in the end, there will be no need for Trump to cheat because MAGA is, unto itself, popular enough to win fair and square.
Now, having said all of that, it hasn’t happened yet. And Trump is a chaos agent. And if you throw in how bloodthirsty the MAGA New Right has become, it’s within the realm of possibility that they will self-own by forcing into an avoidable, tragic civil war. So, it’s possible that all my dystopian hellscape fears will, in fact, happen.
But we have to prepare ourselves for our 240-odd year democracy ending not with a bang, but with a whimper. We simply elect autocratic fascists in 2022 and 2024 and….that’s it.
