Month: October 2021

‘Is The USA Nearing A Civil War?’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The popularity of people asking the Internet about the possibility of an impending civil war in the United States says a lot about modern America. I say this because it’s easy to bandy about the abstract of a “civil war” in the most powerful, ostensibly most stable nation in the world without really thinking about what it means.

It seems as though America, collectively, has begun to worry about its fate on an existential level.

In the immediate future, there are two points in the future when a civil car is a possibility. In the near term, something to do with the 2022 mid-terms might be enough to push us over the edge. If, say, Steve K. Bannon’s plot to corrupt election boards is successful in 2022 to the point that one side or the other makes a major political miscalculation, it’s possible the country would begin to split between Blue and Red.

The time, of course, is the 2024 presidential cycle.

This is what the book The Fourth Turning would have us believe. And it makes sense. Republicans are, on a systemic level, autocratic and anti-democratic to the point that if they have it within their power to deny Biden re-election in 2024, they will. And, in fact, things are so bad that Biden could lose fair and square and we could still have a Second Civil War.

But I still think around late 2024 — early 2025, the United States will face three existential choices — autocracy, civil war or military junta.

At the moment, I still don’t know which one of those three choices we will pick. Usually, if history is any guide, when things grow existential, the actual path of history is selected because of very specific tactical events that no one can predict in advance. That’s why Foundation-like “psychohistory” is so difficult to do in any practical form.

But, yes, I would say the United States at the moment is, in fact, careening towards a situation where a civil war is a very real possibility. All the macro metrics, at least, are pointing in that direction. Here are the reasons:

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And, yet, it’s also possible that we’ll slip peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy and only a few more “woke” people like me will scream at the top of our lungs that we’re no longer a democracy.

But because for the average person nothing will have changed — at least in the near term — it will all be a lulz and it won’t be until 20 years of uninterrupted MAGA New Right rule that growing numbers of people might notice that something, at some point, changed.

My Latest ‘Live Tweeting’ Thread of Papa Bear Steve K. Bannon’s Piece of Shit Podcast


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve started to “live tweet” Papa Bear Steve K. Bannon’s podcast. Here’s the latest thread if you’re interested.

This ‘Red October’ Bullshit Is Why America Is Going To Hell


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus H. Christ. This Website gets, at most, about 100 unique views in one day. Ever since I posted about fucking “Red October” about 20% of my hits have been from fucking cocksucker idiot Qanon fucktards apparently giddy at the prospect of….what?

There is something deeply wrong with American politics if that many people all over the country actually believe some sort of Qanon bullshit about a “Red October” happening. And all because of a confusion over why the White House was bathed in red light!

You just can’t make this bullshit up.

And, yet, here we are. There is a small, but passionate, group of people who apparently think some sort of bonkers Qanon prophecy about Red October has now come to pass and, I don’t know…it’s just so much bullshit that my poor old globalist cuck mind can’t process it.

One way of looking at it is Qanon is the type of secret society bullshit that a nation on the cusp of civil war or revolution usually experiences. But oh my God would a civil war suck. It would be truly horrific.

Dreaming Is Free: Of Jessica Chastain, Sophia Lillis & The Thriller Series I’m Developing & Writing


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m being extremely delusional still when it comes to this thriller series I’m working on. But at the moment absolutely no one cares if I drop off the face of the earth, so I don’t think you’ll be grudge me a little daydreaming. Though, this being the Internet, maybe you will.

Jessica Chastain / Image: Internet

But there’s one specific character in this thriller series I’m working on that I’ve imagined looking and acting like Jessica Chastain. And now that I’ve decided to write two exogenesis novels as well, there’s another red head I imagine playing this character in my head, IT’s Sophia Lillis.

Sophia Lillis / Image: Internet

She’s a little young at the moment to play the character in the first book movie adaptation of any sort of I-win-the-lottery situation where there are movie adaptations of these four novels. But by the time things came to that point, she probably would be about the right age to play the early-20s stage of the character I think Chastain could play in later books.

Yet, again, this is all extremely delusional. I just need hope at the moment and, also, I need someone to model the character after in my mind. I like Chastain’s vibe. And I like the idea that we would kind of see her character — and all the other characters change over the course of a generation.

That’s one of the things I did not expect when I started this process about three years ago — how enormous it would become. I’m really digging deep into every aspect of my personal life — and the lives of a few other people — to flesh out this universe I’ve come up with and populate it with not just characters, but people.

Of Trump & Me: A Tale Of Two Sharpies


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here’s a minor thing that I think about way too much: both Trump and me love Sharpies, but he loves the huge felt ones and I like the small ultra fine ones.

That we would love the same brand, only with widths from the opposite ends of the size spectrum says something — what, I don’t know. As someone who loves my ultrafine Sharpie, the idea that someone would even wants a felt Sharpie is rather alarming.

Image: Axios

But Sharpie went so far as to design a special felt pen just for ding dong Trump. It’s simply surreal in the extreme to me that this happened.

#NeverTrumpers May Save Blue States in 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to grow more and more impressed with how passionate and articulate the #NeverTrump members are. They’re not perfect. In fact, some of those associated with The Lincoln Project have done some pretty sketchy things.

But, the thing about the prominent #NeverTrumpers is they have principles and guts. And a lot of them are born leaders who will definitely rise to the occasion should the dead hand of history decides to give them the opportunity to do so.

They could very well save the Union.

Now, given the radical forces — both Leftist and fascist — that any actual civil war would unleash, the fact that rock solid conservatives would be in charge of saving the Union (or at least the Blue State part of it) will probably lead to some pretty surreal political events.

So, in a sense, it would be if instead of Lincoln during the Civil War, it was a War Democrat.

Anyway, for #NeverTrumpers to be given the opportunity to lead Blue States, things would have gotten pretty fucking bad. The most logical way this would happen would be Blue States leave the Union when Red States simply nullify a Biden re-election in Congress and the country buckles.

If something like that happened, then be prepared for some pretty dramatic, and radical, events to take place in the United States very, very quickly. The moment the inevitable happens and WMD are used domestically, ooooh by.

If we slip peacefully into autocracy, then all the #NeverTrumpers will gradually be exiled, imprisoned or worse. Far Worse.

What If We Held A Second American Civil War & Nobody Came: The Case For A 2025 Military Junta


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve talked a lot about the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that America faces around 2025 as part of the so-called “Fourth Turning.” But there is a third option — military junta.

In a sense, this option makes a lot more sense than either autocracy or civil war because it could be just the temporary fix to our problems. The scenario I’m thinking of is rather than what the Reds want, which is autocracy or what the Blues might want out of desperation, which is civil war, we would simply turn the reigns of power over to the military.

Once we did that, it’s easy to imagine the whole point of the exercise would be a convening of a Constitutional Convention that would address the concerns of both sides. This would be a way to take the existential issues of 2025 out of the hands of our undead politics and turn it over to a hopefully objective existential body that would help us become a more perfect Union.

There, unfortunately, so many problems with this on-paper ideal solution that it’s highly unlikely it would happen. What’s more likely to happen is either we slip peacefully into a MAGA New Right autocracy or Blue States grow so enraged that they leave the Union and all hell breaks loose.

The biggest problem is, of course, the U.S. Military on a systemic basis will do everything in its power to avoid this very solution, even to the point that the whole country collapses into anarchy. This would happen when the military simply refuses to pick a side when Trump fucks everything up like he always does and we just don’t know who the “real” POTUS is and Blue and Red States go for each others throats.

Another problem might be, that the not even the military will be able to withstand the forces tearing the country apart and the largely MAGA enlisted men pick the opposite side as the brass. So, instead of a unified military being able to step in for a few crucial months, everything collapses in on itself and we bomb ourselves into oblivion using illicitly seized caches of WMD.

If MAGA gets its way and we turn into an autocracy then, well, lulz.

The point of all of this is we need to start preparing ourselves for some pretty astonishing choices in the 2024 -2025 timeframe. And it’s going to suck so, so bad. It’s going to be horrible.

But the current autocracy without an autocrat status quo can not stand. We have a short-term solution to a long-term problem.

The 2022 Mid-Term Campaign Season Has Begun


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In just the last few days, I’ve sensed that things have changed America. I don’t quite know what’s going on, but it’s there. It seems as though we are now, after much delay, officially in the Biden Era and, as such, it seems the MAGA New Right has become re-invigorated.

Now, let me put that in context.

The Republican Establishment is ready to move on from Trump himself. They got everything they could possibly ever imagine because of his chaos and, in a sense, they’re sated. They’re ready to find a Trump Without Trump who will do the same thing but without all the headaches.

Now what.

As such, there is tension between the MAGA New Right base that remains all-in with Trump and the Establishment that really, really would rather DeSantis be the nominee in 2024. That’s why DeSantis is beginning to rise so rapidly within Republican circles — he is a viable candidate that a lot of traditional conservatives can support without the embarrassing extensive permission structure required with Trump.

The only problem is, Trump wants to be the next Trump and screwing up the best laid plans of the Republican Establishment is his thing. So Trump in the next year or so will have to make a decision — co-op DeSantis by making him is veep or destroy him. Trump is so difficult to predict at times that at the moment I can’t tell you which one he’s going to do.

But I do know that the shift I’m feeling probably has something to do with the beginning of the extended 2022 mid-term cycle. That cycle will officially be kicked off the moment we know who Virginia’s next governor is. I would go so far as to say it’s possible that if Republican Glenn Youngkin wins (which I think he has a fair chance of doing) that is will we will lurch into a real New Era because we’re all going to be thinking about what that means for the 2022 mid-terms themselves.

All I can say is, batten down the hatches because things are dark in the United States an only going to get worse as the months and years progress. We’re going to be facing more and more existential situations as we careen towards a massive, historic clusterfuck in 2024 – 2025.

There’s Only One Way We’re Going To Ever See Any Accountability, And It’s Not Pretty


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really hate violence. I’m a man of peace. I’m a man of ideas. So, I would rather we slip peacefully into autocracy than have a the clusterfuck that would be a Second Civil War. Having said that, given how the MAGA New Right is chomping at the bit to murder people like me under the guise of civil war, the consequences of such a high risk, high reward situation are something we need to think about if only in the abstract.

The thing about the United States right now is there’s no accountability for Trump. He’s above the law, even not being president. He’s a king without a kingdom. And, but for fuck old and deranged he is, he would be the guy who turned the United States into something akin to Nazi Germany. He really is that bad, if so amazingly incompetent that he could never pull it off without a lot of help.

The only way there will ever be any accountability for Trumplandia is a civil war where Blue States are victorious. That’s it. Otherwise, either Trump and his toadies are a linger existential crisis that just won’t go away, or we slip into some form of autocracy.

I really — and I mean — REALLY don’t want a civil war of any sort.

But the macro tends at the moment in the United States definitely seem to indicate that a civil war is one of two existential choices we’re going to have no later than late 2024 – early 2025.

If we had a Second Civil War and Blue States won — and that’s the critical aspect of it all — then there might be some sort of Truth & Reconciliation Commission that would, at last, give us some accountability for Trumplandia.

But talk about high risk, high reward.

My Hot Take On A Majority Of Trump Voters Wanting To Secede From The United States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My hot take on a majority of MAGA New Right voters wanting to secede from the the Union is that it’s solely the result of the quirk in history we’re now living through. If either Trump had been the autocrat people voted for in 2016 or had COVID not hit and Biden not been the nominee, those very same people would be the bedrock of a United America Party.

They would be the people who were thrilled that we’d just had a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention and liberals were, at last, owned.

But neither one of those things happened. Trump could not live up to his reputation as the “You’re Fired” Guy and the stars of politics and history aligned in just the right way so deny Trump the ability to rant his way into a stolen second term.

So here we are.

What should be happening – Trump, or someone like Trump, working swiftly to consolidate autocratic power — isn’t happening. This leaves people who want Trumplandia, the MAGA New Right cocksuckers, upset that they can’t turn the United States into a Russian clone immediately.

Also, I think some of what’s going on is that usual MAGA New Right bullshit where they take some ridiculous political position just to own the libs in the mainstream media. They like seeing talking heads on TV freaking out, so they say things they don’t really mean to get that result.

But I will say that the poll in question leans credence to my view that one, the United States is an autocracy without an autocrat and two, the country is far more politically unstable than you might believe.

All that would have to happen is something unexpected to put undue pressure on our political system and some pretty dramatic, unexpected things. Another thing — I still think it’s going to be Blue States that are pushed into a corner to such an extent that they decide to leave the Union in the late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe.

So, it will be Blue States who ultimately leave the Union, not Red States. I say this because all the macro trends favor Red States and when the time comes for some sort of civil war, I will be shocked if it’s not the Red States who get the USA “brand name.”

And even then, that’s really the absolute worst case scenario.

More likely than not, we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy, without people like me an Norm Ornstein getting all that upset about the change in our basic political system.

Or, put another way, for the time being, everything is still up in the air. It could go either way — autocracy or civil war.