Month: October 2021

‘Will There Be A Civil War In USA?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When talking about the United States’ fate, we’re now dealing with huge, sweeping historic metrics that no one person can change — except maybe Donald Trump. We’re dealing with a number of huge structural issues in this nation of 335 million people. There are no easy solutions or answers.

But as for the question of a Second American Civil War happening, I would it’s actually one of three prospective options facing us — civil war, autocracy or military junta.

Or, put another way, we’re too far out from the point in time I would suspect we’re going to have some sort of existential crisis before us, which would be around 2024 – 2025. At the moment, it really could go either way. It’s just as easy to make the case that we’ll have a civil war as it is to make the case that we’ll simply slip peacefully into an autocracy such is found in modern Russia.

In fact, I would go so far as to say if we do have a civil war, it will be because the people who should know better — the MAGA New Right — was so consumed at the bloodthirsty prospect of sucking its own cock in order to “own the libs” that they totally fucked up what would otherwise be a historical gimmie: the nation’s gradual transition into autocracy.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

There is a lot of froth these days among the “thought leaders” of the MAGA New Right about how the center-Left because it “won’t leave them alone” is forcing them to radicalize. The question is, of course, is this all talk and when presented with the option of getting everything they want peacefully, will they restrain themselves?

A lot, I think, hinges on what Trump does. Trump is so stupid and lazy, and so absolutely fucking prone to saying “the quiet part out loud” that he, unto himself, could be the single reason why we have a civil war where we bomb ourselves into the Stone Age.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And, yet, the center-Left is so weak willed and so lacking any form of leadership, it’s very possible that even if Trump personally tries to fuck things up, that we’ll slip peacefully into autocracy. Then, of course, the issue will be who Trump’s successor will be. Who will be the younger, more focused person he will pick to finally strangle American democracy once and for all. (Probably through some sort of Constitutional Convention.)

There are so many people for him to chose from, it’s hard to count them all. Just off the top of my head, there are about a dozen would-be autocrats waiting in the wings, who know that they can be in power just long as Putin has been. They also know they can grow just as wealthy as he is, too.

The third, far less possible option is a military junta. On paper, it seems like it’s possible, but I doubt it would actually happen. And, I don’t think it’s going to be Red States that leave the Union and start a Second American Civil War. It’s going to be Blue States.

And, remember, if we do have a 2ACW, WMD will be used and there will likely be some sort of race war in the South. Once the United States is busy bombing itself into the Stone Age, the rest of the world will slide into WW3 with a number of limited nuclear exchanges happening.

There is the possibility that after four or five years of a global Fourth Turning, that we’ll all come out the other side realizing our shared humanity and we’ll finally address global climate change, etc.

But, lulz, who am I kidding.

We’re totally fucked, no matter what happens.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

The Naming Of Names


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m obsessed with picking just the right name for the characters in this four novel thriller series I’m working on. At the moment, I’m quite pleased with what I’ve managed to come up with. I love some of the names I’ve come up with, I’m extremely paranoid that someone will steal a march on me and use similar names to what I have, forcing me to find new names.

This is a very real possibility, but at the same time, as I keep saying to myself, make decisions on what you do know, not on what you don’t know.

Some of the better names I’ve seen in fiction include Don Draper, Shiv Roy and, of course, Lisbeth Salander.

The name “Don Draper” is so very, very good because it tells you exactly what to expect from the character. “Don” evokes Don Juan while “Draper” evokes “drape her.” What more can you ask for in a name?

I don’t know anything about her character or the show she’s featured on “Succession,” but I love, love, love the name “Shiv Roy.” That’s great name. It’s loaded in such a way that you can play with the audience’s expectations a great deal. Nearly anything the character does, or doesn’t do, will be loaded because of her name.

Meanwhile, “Lisbeth Salander” is so great because “Salander” is very similar to “salamander.” You get the sense that this is a small person who is nearly impossible to kill, just like the animal her name suggests.

Anyway. The thing about character names is while one can come to love them, they’re also fairly easily to replace with some thought. So, if the worst happens, I can always go back to the drawing board and think up new names for whichever characters I feel I’ve been forced to rename.

Red October: The MAGA New Right’s Orthodoxy On COVID19 #ArrestFauci


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As best I can understand it, here’s the MAGA New Right’s media narrative on COVID19:

COVID19 was intentionally released by either the Chinese government or major pharmaceutical companies — or some combination of both — from a lab in Wuhan as part of a Deep State plot to prevent Trump from being re-elected. Along the way, Dr. Antony Fauci, despite spending his entire adult life trying to save lives, was somehow directly and personally involved in funding this research and directly benefited from it on a financial basis.

Though Trump should get endless amount of praise for his Operation Warp Speed, any form of mandate or mitigation requirement is illegal and should be proactively ignored on a personal basis by God fearing Christians. If necessary, one should take up arms to make your point. Even though there is a free, safe vaccine created by funding and organization by Trump, the average person should not take it, but rather risk getting sick and then taking any number of drugs and potions in an effort to mitigate the symptoms.

Because of the evil machinations of China, the Deep State and pharmaceutical companies, the United States should get reparations from the Chinese government equal to the amount of lost economic production that was caused by the pandemic. What’s more, Dr. Fauci should be arrested and put on trial for mass murder.

And, honestly, in all fairness, Trump should be re-instated because COVID19 was a plot to bring him down, after all. And if that doesn’t work, then Steve K. Bannon is going to work personally to ensure the administration of elections on a local level is so corrupted by his “spiritual shock troops” that it’s impossible for a Democrat to ever win any office ever again.

So, that’s what we’re up against right now with the MAGA New Right. Now, if they can actually back up any of these claims, then I’m willing to listen to them and readjust my thinking accordingly. I’m aware that this is new evidence to suggest that there was some Federal funding of the research going on at the Wuhan lab, but nothing that would indicate that Dr. Fauci was personally getting any monetary gain or that in any way he did anything that would require him being fired, forced to retire or, least of all, arrested.

Steve K. Bannon

But this lack of evidence has not stopped Steve K. Bannon from making it absolutely clear on his podcast that, at a minimum, the Chinese government owes the U.S. Government trillions in reparations, immediately.

All of this bullshit is another side that things are dark in the Untied States and only getting darker. We’re careening towards a breaking point, an existential choice — and none of the three options I think we’re going to be forced to choose from will be all that great.

And, really, the crux of the matter is we’re dealing with macro forces and we’ve gone pass the event horizon. There’s no going back. Something huge is going to happen domestically in the United States no later than around January 2025. It may be as subtle as the country peacefully transitioning into an autocracy. It could be something really dramatic like an epic civil war involving WMD. We might endup with a military junta, but that’s the lease likely of the outcomes I see before us.

Red October: A New World Order


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things have progressed to the point in the United States where it’s out of the control of the individual to do anything about it for the time being. All the conditions exist for the United States to either have a civil war, turn into an autocracy or there be a military junta established.

No amount of ranting on Twitter about how crazy the MAGA New Right seems is going to make any difference. The stage is set for something pretty dramatic to happen no later than about January 2025.

Something’s gotta give.

One of the two major parties in the United States is now radically anti-democratic and beholden to a rancid demagogy who is just as likely to force us into an avoidable civil war as he is to guide us peacefully into autocracy. If we do peacefully turn into an autocracy, it won’t be Trump, but his hand-picked successor who has the gumption to do the final consolidation of power through a Constitutional Convention. (Not that I don’t think Trump won’t start ranting about the need for that at any moment.)

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

So, at the moment, I would say we have a 50 / 50 chance of having a civil war in the United States. It would probably start in late 2024 when Blue States leave the Union after Steve K. Bannon’s administrative coup on the local level makes it clear that Democrats will never be allowed to become president again.

Steve K. Bannon

There will be a lot of talk that Republicans will let Blue States leave peacefully, but, lulz, that will never happen and we have a civil war. A very costly, blood and tragic civil war that directly causes World War 3 and the death of billions as a result of a series of limited nuclear exchanges around the globe.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Or, as I keep saying, Blue States because of a lack of vision and leadership simply don’t have it in them to challenge our descent into autocracy and we gradually become a Russia clone on a political level. This, in turn, will cause a massive outflux of center-Left people out of the country. America will grow poorer and more inward looking to the point that China’s gradual ascent across the globe will happen without anyone firing a shot.

There is, of course, the other option of some sort of military junta, but that’s the least likely of the dystopian options I have in mind. It’s possible on paper, yes, but it’s far more likely that not even the U.S. Military will survive if we have a civil war and one of the first steps in any civil war would be a general balkanization of the country into warring camps.

Then WMD gets introduced as does a race war in the Deep South and after a few years of bombing ourselves into the Stone Age, we grow tired enough that we start thinking about laying down our arms and re-uniting. Or not, it could just be that we’d be fucked from here on out and the United States will be nothing more than an much larger Afghanistan that speaks English.

I guess the point of all of this is — you have to start thinking existentially. Call it The Fourth Turning, or whatever you like. But this is it. We’re careening towards the end of the United States — and, to some extent, the end of the world — as we know it.

Get a passport. Start thinking about what you’re willing to risk your life for in the real world. No one is going to save us. We’re going to have to save ourselves.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

‘But Why 4 Novels?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, this four novel series began as one novel that was started because of my personal white hot rage against the Trump Era. This morphed into two books because the story was just too big to be told in one novel. And then something happened that I totally did not expect — Trump lost.

As such, there came a point when I realized I needed to recalibrate the project. I was on the couch, just about asleep, when I realized something: I had a huge backstory in my mind for the two novels I was working on. So big, in fact, that I could write two novel-length stories about how we got to the opening of the first book in the two-book story.

My creative past…and future?

That’s when I realized that a great way to “fix” the problem of Trump losing was to go backwards in time and tell those two “prequel” stories, then come back refreshed and with new eyes on the two modern-era books I was working on.

And that’s exactly what I’ve done.

Much to my delight, this plan has worked out quite well. I do have a lot of insecurity every once in a while about such a thing project, but the two additional prequel stories I’m working on are really strong and really compelling and so there you go.

The whole thing won’t make any sense until the whole project is finished and you can read the four novels all the way through and see my entire vision as a whole. But that comes with the territory of having a vision, I suppose. You have to have “paper” that people can read before most people are willing to accept that you know what you’re talking about.

It definitely would have helped if I had had a “muse” in my life to help guide me through this process. But, I guess, there’s just as much a chance that any woman in my life would have discouraged me from starting this whole thing to begin with. It has helped a lot, in some ways, that I have not had anyone to tell me “no.”

Red October: Dr. Tony Fauci, Lightening Rod


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here’s my theory for why Dr. Anthony Fauci is hated so much by the MAGA New Right: the chief reason is he is Trump’s peer age-wise and he has the validation of the liberal media that Trump craves so badly. And because it was difficult for Trump to fire Fauci, the more he refused to tow the MAGA line about what to do about COVID19, the more the frustration with him within MAGA New Right circles grew.

Be prepared.

So, by this point, Republicans’ hatred of Fauci is so white hot that you would think he was the literal devil. He has come to represent everything they hate in American society and nothing will stop them from trying to destroy him with everything tool they have.

Which brings up a very dark situation — the man is in his 80s, and he’s going to retire simply because he’s old sooner rather than later. And given the bloodlust the MAGA New Right has about him on a personal level, I just don’t see the process of finding his replacement going very smoothly.

In fact, in the end, either the position will go unfilled or it will stay vacant until a re-elected Trump (or similar would-be autocrat) can fill the position with a toady who will kowtow to MAGA New Right ideology.

Or, put another way, the whole fight over Fauci is going to become pretty moot one way or another a lot sooner than you might think. Either he retires and the position is left open until MAGA New Right replaces him with an idiot, or we have a civil war, the Blues States win and one of the gradual things that will happen as our war-torn country returns to normal will be replacing Fauci with someone of equal ability, experience and skill.

Anyway, in general we’re fucked. Good luck.

My Hot Take On ‘Vice Signaling’ & The Alec Baldwin Accidental Shooting Of Halyna Hutchins


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was watching Chris Hayes’ show tonight when he said something that I had thought about, but had yet to articulate — the rise of “vide signaling” within the Republican ranks.

The idea that Republicans have decided to willfully become cocksuckers for attention is something I have thought a lot about. This has come to the fore with the tragic, accidental shooting of Halyna Hutchins by Hollywood star Alec Baldwin.

Both of these tweets are prime examples of what Hayes and I have noticed. I think some of this comes from the more self-aware members of the MAGA New Right knowing that there is, at this point, literally nothing they can say on social media that won’t be attacked.

So, they decide to fuck with people and say intentionally dumb, crass, asshole things, knowing that Twitter liberals will quote-share their content, amplifying their message.

The whole situation is fucked up and there is not ready answer as to how to fix it. “Vice signaling” is yet another sign of the bolts popping of American civil society. We’re careening towards a very dark future with no obvious endgame. At the moment, I think our best scenario is we have some sort of temporary military junta lead by someone like James Mattis who helps us figure out how to fix some deep seated structural problems in our Republic without either us turning into a long-term autocracy or having us have some sort of civil war.

All one can do, on a personal level, is to figure out what one believes in and what you’re willing to risk your life and sacred honor for in the real world. Getting mad on Twitter or Facebook is easy and low risk. Get back to me when you know what you’re willing to believe when you have a gun stuck in your face in the real world.

Whatever you still believe in at that point, is what you need to start to prepare to defend now, while you have time to plan. I’m trying to do that — I got a passport — but I know myself well enough to know that I’ll endup going towards, rather than away, from danger should the occasion arise.

Red October: What’s The Matter With Ohio?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something is fucking wrong with Ohio Republicans. They have a big Republican Senate primary coming up next year and two of the guys running in it have fucking lost their minds. Take, for instance, this tweet:

The above is an example of how broken our democracy is. When you’re using crass trolling of the liberal media to get attention and, by extension, the negative-polarization attention of your MAGA base, something is fucking wrong not just with you — but the party you are a part of. Then there is this bit of malicious kookiness from the other guy running in the Ohio Republican primary:

It’s talk like this that I feel re-affirms my fears that Something Big is going to happen at some point between now and about January 2025. I still don’t have a handle on what it going to be — autocracy, civil war or military junta — but the current status quo simply can not stand.

The United States is running on political fumes at the moment and something’s gotta give. I can tell something is seriously wrong because of how the people like the two guys featured above see themselves. They have made the cognitive leap into seeing anyone who doesn’t agree with them not just as political rivals, but as “the other” they have a destroy – or be destroyed zero-sum relationship with.

And all of this is happening in Ohio of all places, which is, unto itself, pretty strange in my opinion. But the key take away is we’re careening towards a dark, unsettled future — the Fourth Turning, if you will. We can no longer simply assume that norms or even traditional liberal democracy politics itself will take care of our problems in a traditional fashion.

It definitely seems as though on an institutional level, the Republican Party is now radical, anti-democratic and bloodthirsty. In fact, I would go so far as to say they are their own worst enemy in the sense that if they would just be patient, they will give everything they want.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

We will sleep peacefully into autocracy, millions of center-Left people will flee the country gradually over a generation and the United States will become a shit hole country, hiding behind Fortress America. But Republicans are so fucking bonkers and bloodthirsty, that they could very well push us into a violent civil war where the metrics that success are measured by will be dramatically different.

One thing is for sure, however — if we do have a civil war, we’re going to bomb ourselves into the stone age and it will all be so bloody, so horrific that everyone involved will regret it ever happened.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

All we can hope for, I guess, is somehow Blue States win in the end.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Dune: A Good, But Boring, Movie


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I liked the newest attempt to film the Dune novel, but I found it boring as hell. I kept waiting for something to happen. It did finally happen, but for some reason, it didn’t feel like a big enough pay off for all the time I spent rolling my eyes and checking the clock on my phone.

Dune / From the Internet

It definitely was gorgeous to look at. And there were moments when it was engaging and it felt like just another big budget scifi movie. But then there was all the other time when nothing happened. There was a lot of exposition and build up….and you just felt restless.

But, for some reason, over all it was a good movie. I just wish they had played with the source material more. I wish they had juiced the story up so it had a lot more action and lot more there there.

And, yet, having said all that, I’m looking forward to a sequel. Hopefully, it will be more interesting. There is some sense from how Dune ended that any sequel would have a lot more going on.

And Dune universe is so huge — and so much actual action goes on within in — that I look forward to a Dune cinematic universe.

Red October: Imagining America’s Brain Drain If We Slip Peacefully Into Autocracy After January 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the United States is going to slip peacefully into autocracy in broad daylight. If it’s not the complete corruption of the administration of elections by Steve Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” involved in his “administrative coup,” then it will be the nullification of any election of a Democrat by Congressional Republicans for the rest of our lives.

Now, this raises the question of what the reaction of the average person will be when this happens. Will they just shrug and roll over as the fucking fascist MAGA New Right cocksuckers consolidate power, or will I be surprised and we won’t transition peacefully into autocracy at all? Will the throttling of our 240 year old democracy simply be too brazen for that to happen?

At the moment, I just don’t know.

But let’s assume that Bannon’s plot works and we simply shrug. Then what?

Well, form follows function and once the connection between the governed and the government no longer exists, it’s only a matter of time before the media is purged, ICE is weaponized and people like me start to mysteriously die because I just won’t shut the fuck up about what a fucking cocksucker President Mike Pompeo is.

But there would be consequences to this consolidation of power. Center Left would soon begin to simply vote with their feet, leaving the United States behind. This “brain drain” would happen until it got so bad that America’s autocrat would move to make it nearly impossible for anyone to get a passport and to leave the country. Form follows function.

Before that happened, however, enough upper middle class liberals would leave the country to make a huge difference in nations across the globe. It’s easy to imagine Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Great Britain and any number of European nations taking in millions of disillusioned Americans and reaping huge economic and social rewards.

One nation that might see a huge economic and societal change as wealthy center-Left Americans scramble to leave the United States is the Philippines. It’s got great climate, has a historical connection to the United States, cheap living and the room to accommodate a few million Americans. They would all telecommute to the States and might, just might, single handedly bootstrap the nation out of its current third-world status.

I often wonder where Hollywood would re-locate under this scenario. I think it would be somewhere like Perth. From my personal experience, people from Perth are really creative and interesting and even though it’s in the middle of nowhere, it seems within the realm of possibility that the Hollywood community might re-locate to that city once the United States finally drifts into autocracy.

But all of that is very speculative. At the moment, it’s possible it could go either way, that we either have a civil war or we slip peacefully into autocracy. Only time will tell.