by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
My hot take on a majority of MAGA New Right voters wanting to secede from the the Union is that it’s solely the result of the quirk in history we’re now living through. If either Trump had been the autocrat people voted for in 2016 or had COVID not hit and Biden not been the nominee, those very same people would be the bedrock of a United America Party.
They would be the people who were thrilled that we’d just had a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention and liberals were, at last, owned.
But neither one of those things happened. Trump could not live up to his reputation as the “You’re Fired” Guy and the stars of politics and history aligned in just the right way so deny Trump the ability to rant his way into a stolen second term.
So here we are.
What should be happening – Trump, or someone like Trump, working swiftly to consolidate autocratic power — isn’t happening. This leaves people who want Trumplandia, the MAGA New Right cocksuckers, upset that they can’t turn the United States into a Russian clone immediately.
Also, I think some of what’s going on is that usual MAGA New Right bullshit where they take some ridiculous political position just to own the libs in the mainstream media. They like seeing talking heads on TV freaking out, so they say things they don’t really mean to get that result.
But I will say that the poll in question leans credence to my view that one, the United States is an autocracy without an autocrat and two, the country is far more politically unstable than you might believe.
All that would have to happen is something unexpected to put undue pressure on our political system and some pretty dramatic, unexpected things. Another thing — I still think it’s going to be Blue States that are pushed into a corner to such an extent that they decide to leave the Union in the late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe.
So, it will be Blue States who ultimately leave the Union, not Red States. I say this because all the macro trends favor Red States and when the time comes for some sort of civil war, I will be shocked if it’s not the Red States who get the USA “brand name.”
And even then, that’s really the absolute worst case scenario.
More likely than not, we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy, without people like me an Norm Ornstein getting all that upset about the change in our basic political system.
Or, put another way, for the time being, everything is still up in the air. It could go either way — autocracy or civil war.
