by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
When should you panic when it comes to my dystopian predictions about the “Fourth Turning” being the existential choice of civil war or autocracy?
Second American Civil War
In some ways, this one is pretty obvious — there would be a catalyst that started the process of a states doing something akin to secession that would spark an event that we would refer to as “the Second American Civil War.” So, in a sense, you would know something was happening.
But at the same time, here are some metrics that would re-enforce the idea that the “Fourth Turning” of a civil war is about to happen. One is, Red people in Blue States and Blue people in Red states would begin to flee to states with politics that fit their personal views. This would be extremely dramatic. There are about 335 million Americans and if there was panic domestic political refugee movements it would be astonishing in scope.
Just as this happened, it’s likely New York City would be a massive flash point because a lot of conservative media is physically located there. So, if the United States really was about to buckle into some sort of Trumplandia and rump USA shooting war, it’s very possible that the offices of Fox News and the WSJ would be physically attacked by an angry mob of New Yorkers. Trump Tower, too, could be stormed and gutted.
If you start seeing shit like that — we’re going to have a civil war.
Also, if you start to see radicalization on the part of, say, the talking heads of Today or Good Morning America or NPR — we’re really fucked. Those guys are the last bastions of “everyone stay calm.” If they freak out, then buckle up, we’re fucked.
Another thing that would happen about this time is severe violence on a state government level. There would be coups and counter-coups in states like Oregon, Virginia and Michigan.
One other thing — the draft would come back in a rather abrupt fashion.
Autocracy
The time to panic with autocracy in the United States is when the media is purged. This will happen in a way that the crumbling Establishment goes out of its way to minimize and rationalize.
Then, gradually, in fits and starts any form of protesting will be crushed and, yes, people will begin to mysteriously get pushed out of widows.
Form follows function.
