by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Since someone searched for that and found this blog, I will write about it. One thing is clear — Republicans have been such a steady flow of bullshit that they are primed and ready for a secession crisis should it ever occur.
But there would need to be a catalyst, something to spark MAGA state legistatures to begin to call secession conventions. I just don’t believe Republicans have it in them to rise up and start murdering liberals en mass. They’re all talk — or frustration. Trump is a coward and a joke when it comes such shit and even if he went transactional for some reason, he’s such a pantywaist that he would hide behind the “it’s not my fault” defense. He wouldn’t own any secession and run with it. (At least, not at first, unless it got some traction.)
Yet, as a I keep writing, there are a wide array of potential secession scenarios facing us. Most of them don’t really apply to 2021 but rather the 2024-2025 timeframe. In a sense, if there was a secession crisis now it would be a win for the forces of democracy because The Good Guys would control the military and it would be pretty clear for their to be a media narrative for the broader public as to what should happen.
It’s when you have the very murky situation surrounding a potential Congressional certification fight that all hell could break loose because it would be difficult for their to be any sort of clear understanding of who was in the right. (Which would be the whole point of MAGA balking at certifying a Biden win in the first place.)
The only secession crisis I can think up that would happen in 2021 would have something to do with Cyber Ninjas in Arizona “proving” that Trump “won” the state and that sets of a series of events whereby Trump goes transactional and MAGA states start to leave the Union immediately.
So, in general, unless something really unexpected happens, we should be ok until late 2024 and early 2025. Then, we’ll either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy.
