Month: May 2021

A Hunch: A Constitutional Convention Will Be Part Of Trump’s MAGA ‘Contract With America’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ding-Dong Trump is apparently teaming up with Newt Gingrich to do his version of the very successful “Contract With America” that allowed Republicans to take the House many moons ago.

My hunch is one of the points of this contract will be a demand that we have a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balance budget amendment.” This will be nothing more than a ruse. The real point of any such convention would be to pass some sort of “Second Bill of Rights” that would enshrine things like “religious liberty” and God only knows what other type of bullshit.

I’m wrong all the time, but this seems to be a gimmie.

CNN Should Replace Chris Cuomo With Someone More Like Larry King


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Larry King was a hallmark of CNN for decades. And then he just vanished. It was kind of weird. And, even stranger, CNN has completely ignored that for a lot of long-term viewers like me, having a breezy, value free chat show on during CNN’s weekday primetime was a rather comfortable thing to see.

Chris Cuomo just doesn’t do it for me. He’s strangely off putting for some reason, nowhere near as affable as Larry King was in his prime. I struggle to think of who CNN could replace him with, however.

The first person who comes to mind is Joe Rogan. I think Rogan can be a real idiot at times, but he is affable and given his alt-Right lite credentials, I could see his presence on the network doing a lot to bridge the gap between CNN and the rabid, bonkers MAGA shitheads who hate it so much. (Yet, who am I kidding — MAGA hates CNN because it’s objective and they crave to be fed the party line. But, luz.)

I suppose someone like Jon Stewart might be able to do the type of show I’m looking for, but that just doesn’t seem very practical. Neither Stewart nor Rogan seem really all that interested in being on CNN for various reasons.

Now that I think about it, given how King was not a traditional journalist and, as such, you could even draw from an unexpected place: SNL. There are a number of SNL-connected people who would be great as a potential Larry King-like interviewer. Kenan Thompson or Tina Fey would be just the right mix of regular person and interviewer-with-an-interesting-personality to bring back the same vibe as Larry King.

But, who am I kidding. No one listens to me.

America’s Liberal Democracy Is In A Tailspin



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

American liberal democracy is dead, but for one thing — our national self-perception. It was only because of a very specific set of events that Trump did not win a second term and have four years to demand a Constitutional Convention that would turn the United States, at last, into nothing more than Trumplandia.

But the anti-democratic problems in American politics that brought us Trump continue to push us towards an autocratic managed democracy future. And this is when I find myself struggling to figure out what happens next. History would suggest that we’re going to quietly slip into autocracy and that will be that. It will just be conventional wisdom that for a Democrat to become president, Democrats will also have to control Congress. This won’t happen very often because of voter suppression and gerrymandering.

That will be it.

We will turn into an Americanized version of Putin’s Russia. And, honestly, it’s easy to imagine that as long as MAGA autocrats don’t go after freedom of speech head-on that there will be something of a truce in our politics — MAGA autocrats will weld hard power for generations to come while liberals will vent on TV and Twitter, accomplishing nothing.

And, yet, form follows function. It’s very easy to imagine President Pompeo, or President Cotton or President Hawley (the list goes on) growing greedy and demanding a Constitutional Convention that would do away with some pretty basic freedoms that Americans simply assume will always be there. And that’s when — if we haven’t had one already — we may very well have something akin to a civil war.

This is not to say that we might not have a civil war as part of MAGA’s bungling of our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy. That’s a very real possibility between now and January 2025.

But I don’t know. I just don’t know. All I do know is everyone is going to have to pick a side soon enough. It will be existential and unavoidable.

Struggling With All The UFO News Of Late


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One’s thoughts on ETs usually says a lot about your take on God. I’m not prepared to believe 100% that ETs exist because of faith, but the news that the USAF has seen a lot of UFOs the last few years definitely gives me pause for thought.

That’s some sort of evidence you can point to and say maybe the galaxy really is full of little green men — or whatever. But things are extremely muddled. How is it possible that the USAF is constantly seeing highly advanced UFOs whizzing around just off the coast and yet that’s all the evidence we have of them. Where are the reports from other parts of the world? And why have we still not had any high quality imagines of these UFOs, period?

It makes you wonder what’s going on.

Or put another way — there are a few elements of this evidence that don’t make sense. We don’t know beyond a shadow of a doubt that these UFOS are nothing more than technology that has been developed in secret by Russia or China.

So, I don’t know.

The whole thing is curious.

MAGA Has Gone Septic Within The Republican Party


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because of a quirk of personal history, I’m a lone center-Left person in my family. So, up until recently, I would often have fairly in depth conversations with my conservative relatives. I say “up until recently” because now things are just too heated whenever we attempt to have a political discussion, so we just don’t talk about politics anymore.

Which, in itself, is ominous . If we can’t have any civil discussion about politics, then our politics is beginning to fail us on a micro level, which will inevitably lead to some pretty scary things on a macro level.

Anyway, the point is — other than me, my family is made up of bedrock conservatives. It definitely seems as though we’ve passed the event horizon when it comes to MAGA finally consuming the entire mainstream conservative movement. For instance, I brought up how the Trump Administration at one point had a meeting where they weighed being a cruel as possible to people trying to get into the country. My conservative relative — who does not consider himself MAGA — was totally cool with this pre-meditated cruelty. And he’s a Christian, headed to heaven, while I’m on a highway to hell.

This is anecdotal evidence that indicates that Twitter liberals, who go back and forth between bemoaning MAGA and laughing at it, need to get woke. It is a pretty dumb misconception on the part of non-MAGA people that it’s a movement made up of ignorant, stupid people who are part of a personality cult.

A more accurate description of MAGA at this point would be traditional conservatives who are dismayed at how rapidly America’s views on race, gender, religion, abortion — you named it — have changed in just a few years. Or, if you really want to get simplistic about it — the election of Obama in 2008 scared the shit out of them. They suddenly realized that America is browning and white people will be in the minority — everything else is just rationalization.

As such, the dead hand of history is pushing us towards a massive crisis between now and January 2025. Everyone is going to have to pick a side. Everyone is going to an existential gut check about what they’re willing to risk in the real world because of what they believe in.

And remember, if the United States buckles, then so does the entire post WW2 framework that has kept the peace for the last 70s or so years. WW3 will likely happen and there will be something akin to a Great Reset that will determine the fate of mankind for centuries to come.

I know that sounds dark and hysterical, but I’m just looking at reality right now and making an educated guess as to where things are headed. I could be wrong. I often am.

The United States Is Careening Towards A Dark Decision: Second Civil War Or Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep vacillating wildly between thinking it’s obvious that we’re simply going to give up on democracy and thinking we’re obviously — when forced into a corner — going to have a civil war.

To this day, I still can figure out which course of action we’re most likely to pick.

I say this because the last 30 or so years have been a steady progression towards autocracy. At each opportunity to avoid taking the next subtle step towards a manage democracy, we’ve zoomed past any possible speed bumps without blinking an eye. So, with that in mind, it seems logical that when MAGA Republicans make their last power grab and nullify in Congress the election of any Democrat that we’ll just shrug and that will be that. Autocracy will be established in the United States and the dynamic of form follows function will kick and and I get pushed out a window by ICE.

And, yet, there’s a big difference between lulzing the slow decline of our democracy and having to confront that we’ve officially crossed into autocracy and Republicans have finally consolidated power for generations to come. So, it also makes a lot of sense that once fey Millennial hipsters realize that MAGA is officially their new overloads that they will freak out on an existential level and we’ll have a civil war.

But one thing is clear — there are a lot of red lights flashing on modern America. I ponder almost every day why MAGA has such hatred within it and I still can’t figure it out. Or, put another way, I can’t figure out why otherwise sane, educated people support MAGA, even it’s “cruelty is the point” mantra of governance style.

If you look back at what happend in 2020, it’s kind of astonishing how close we came to losing our democracy for good. The combination of Trump being extremely lazy and stupid, Biden being very centrist and Trump’s bungled handling of the pandemic was something I could not have easily predicted in late 2019.

I kept thinking around election time 2020 how epically lazy and stupid Trump was for not pulling some pretty basic autocratic plays. But he was all talk. The frightening thing about Trump is, of course, that that “talk” is what his followers voted for. That’s what they wanted in 2016 and 2020: the “you’re fired” guy from The Apprentice.

As such, I wouldn’t get too excited if somehow we magically found the sliver bullet necessary to end Trump’s malignant political career. Trump was simply a vessel for our democracy’s destruction — he had no leadership skills. Once he’s out of the way, there are a dozen young would-be MAGA Republican autocrats waiting in the wings to finish the job Trump started.

‘Taking The L’ On Abortion In The Near Term


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. We’re one SCOTUS ruling away from not just the end of Roe V. Wade, but potentially a complete outlawing of abortion in America — next up, contraception itself.

The political implications of this could be eye raising. The United States, at least in my opinion, is pretty politically unstable right now. If you enraged a sizable portion of the American female population, that’s not exactly going to help. In fact, if you really wanted to get dark about it, if SCOTUS does as I fear, we might look back at the decision as something of a modern Dred Scott.

I say this because outlawing abortion across the entire United States would be a pretty significant shot across the bow of Blue States. Though, I will note the thing that MAGA fucktards are oblivious to is how popular giving women the failsafe of abortion is across a wide swath of women — a lot of conservative women, on a personal level, secretly support abortion for themselves.

Anyway, outlawing abortion altogether would cause an unprecedented amount of political turbulence in the United States. MAGA Republicans will have, at last, “caught the car” and for a few days (hours?) crow that, at last, all conceptions must be brought to term no matter fucking what.

Then, of course, after Blue State women recover from the shock of this dipshit decision…the pendulum will begin to move back in the other direction. The issue is, does it take 50 years to do it again?

The Struggle Is Real: Figuring Out The First Half Of The Second Act (Yet Again)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that I’ve gotten the first act of my novel’s first draft where I want it, I now find myself in the first half of the second act. Now, I have to interject at this moment that I keep thinking I’ve stabilized the novel and I’m about to wrap up the first draft sooner rather than later — then I abruptly run into a structural problem and have to throw everything up in the air and get delayed greatly. But I feel pretty good about this particular version of the story.

Having said all that, I’m afraid I’m going to have to rework the entire thing in a rather dramatic fashion. The reason is, this is the part of the story you pick up the book for. This is called the “Fun and Games” part of the story. It’s supposed to be meaty and fun and interesting.

And, right now, not a lot is going on in this part of the novel.

So, I’m going to throw a lot of it out and the brood for a few days. I may go on a little writer’s retreat somewhere and just stare at the hotel ceiling room. Whenever I’m momentarily stuck with this novel, that does the trick.

The overall premise of the novel is very strong. It’s just I keep having to recalibrate aspects of the specifics of it as I go along. I have very high expectations for myself and, as such, sometimes I hit a brick wall of simply having no idea what to do.

But this is kind of the fun part of all of this. I like the ebb and flow of development. I will admit, however, that I really need to read a lot more. I’m so obsessed with the novel — which has completely consumed my life — that I’ve lost sight of the old adage: if you have time to write you have to time to read.

I just need to stimulate my creativity by looking at things in a different way. So, I’m going to give myself some slack until, say, the beginning of next month in a few days before I get too stressed out about where the novel is going at the moment.

What Is To Be Done?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to take the threat of autocratic rule by MAGA more seriously. Not only is the United States far less stable politically than one might think, there are an array of potential events that could added unexpected stress on an already fragile system.

Though I just don’t see Trump ever facing any accountability at all for any reason, even if we do manage to indict him for some reason, that will only lead to some sort of siege by MAGA people who refuse to let him get arraigned. Or something. America is a powder keg right now and we’re oblivious to how close we are to tipping into significant political violence.

Or not. I could be totally wrong about all of this. I’m often wrong, though I did get COVID19 right (to some extent.) I guess a lot of my hysterical, dystopian scenarios come from reading Twitter liberals being oblivious online and trying to do what they won’t do — take the rancid, seditious actions of the Republicans seriously then trying to figure out the implications.

So, it’s very possible to imagine that it’s Trump’s indictment that pushes us over the edge. Trump refuses to give himself up and before you know it, we all stare at our TV sets for days and days as we watch FBI agents try to coax Trump out of his house.

The issue is, the bolts are popping off of America’s politics in ways not seen since the late 1850s. As such, we face a similar situation in 2024 as we did in 1860 — do we let the modern Slave Power of MAGA run the country or do we break an egg to fix that particular problem? That sounds rather hysterical, but I’m growing — in an abstract way — to at least entertain the idea that we should at least fight for our democracy rather than let it go out with a whimper by acceding to modern Slave Power’s demands that we become an autocratic white Christian ethno state.

Fuck that.

But that is an absolute worst case option. I don’t want that. And, yet, a growing element of the Far Right has embraced political violence and autocracy enough that we have to take it seriously. If they’re itching to destroy America, maybe the so-called “Resistance” should pull its thumb out of its ass and prepare for that possible eventuality.

But, again, it’s possible that what will happen is when Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley become POTUS, there will be something of a stalemate. We’ll be an autocracy, but for the time being American self-perception will be too strong for anything too radical to happen. Though, all signs do point to some sort of Right Wing sponsored Constitutional Convention happening within the next decade. Which will fucking suck.

I’m at a loss as to what’s going to happen to America between now and January 2025. But we have to be prepared for some pretty dark possibilities.

Call The Cyber Ninjas Recount Of Arizona What It Is: Sedition


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has occurred to me that we’re so wrapped up in the MAGA-Trump Big Lie about the 2020 election that we’re missing something far more basic about what’s going on in Arizona: it’s sedition.

Arizona Republicans are actively working to “prove” that Trump “won” the 2020 election even though this has been proven to be complete bullshit over and over and over and over and over again. There comes a point when any such recount is, by definition, done with a bad faith agenda.

You can’t keep demanding a recount simply because you don’t like the result of the election. If you keep doing so, it becomes clear that your goal isn’t to find out the “truth,” it’s to give ding-dong Trump and his raving racist MAGA followers an excuse to destabilize the government.

Now, let me pause for a moment to say I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. So, maybe I’m just being hysterical again. After all, Trump is very lazy and, by some metrics, while his power over the Republican continues to be absolute, his influence elsewhere is waning.

So, I dunno. A lot depends on things that I can’t predict and Trump can’t control. It’s easy to imagine that my dystopian scenario of a nullification crisis leading to a secession crisis is just more of my usual “Trump derangement disorder.”

It’s just I can’t help the nagging feeling that the United States is careening towards a rather dramatic and stark choice. Either we have something akin to a secession crisis now, or we have it in 2024-2025. Either our democracy dies with the whimper of a transition to MAGA autocratic managed democracy or we have a civil war and some sort of opportunity to maybe revive our democracy. (But that is really assuming the absolute best possible endgame.)

I guess, in general, the issue is there is an existential rot at the core of our political system and the question for me is do we somehow magically continue to muddle our way through this or does the obvious happen.

Only time will tell.