Month: December 2020

So, Are We Going To Have A Civil War or Not, Trump?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s possible that the events surrounding the Dec 11th decision on the part of SCOTUS will be seen as a turning point in American history. In a sense, we know who America’s enemies are now.

If you were involved in the failed coup of Dec 11th, then we know should things get hot which side you’re going to be on. If we were honest with ourselves — which, to date, we haven’t been — we shouldn’t seat the 126 Congressmen who supported the failed coup.

As it stands, we STILL don’t have the political willpower to do such a thing, even though that’s definitely a debate I’d like to see — I’d like to see that question go to SCOTUS, if nothing else. It would be a way of naming and shaming the coup participants in a somewhat value free manner.

One tragic thing we have to admit to ourselves is all things being equal, we’re probably hurting ourselves long-term by not slicing this particular political boil now. So, in a strictly abstract way, I would suggest that in the name of making a more perfect Union, we need to call the secessionists bluff. Draw this issue to a tipping point and let the chips fall where they may.

We may have dodged a bullet.

Blue States have bigger economies, more population in more concentration and far better educated people. None dare call it treason — the center will not hold because it can happen here, to use a few political clichés in one sentence.

And, yet, we’re not there yet. (Which is a good thing.)

It’s very possible we’re going to punt this problem down the road and the 126 Congressmen and 19 State governments will continue to be traitors from within in. They will do everything in their power to destroy the United States because they don’t see anyone but Trump as their rightful ruler. Given that I’m a man of peace and ideas, that’s a far better option that the alternative of a hot civil war.

I will note that if Trump was, in any way, an actual political genius, he would strike NOW, while he was still president to destroy the country. He would still “legally” be president and, as such, the U.S. Military would likely follow his orders — as long as they had a thin veneer of legality to them.

Once he’s out of office, any shenanigans he did would evoke the deep historical echo of the Civil War and, as such, would fit a ready media narrative for the incoming Biden Administration –roll up your sleeves, folks, we defeated secession once, we can defeat it again.

But Trump is such a ding-dong, he’s more likely to self-own in a pretty massive fashion than think up some clever way to be in power to put down the rebellion of center-Left people caused by his own doings. Or, put another way, he’s more likely to simply go insane — or start a war with the DPRK / Iran — than he is to have any sort of clear-cut path to using his existing power to stay in control of the government.

In fact, that’s probably be my biggest mistake when gaming out ding-dong’s possible actions — he’s just an empty suit. That’s it. He’s nothing more than an avatar for the rot and rage that exists in the modern American political system. He’s a very lazy opportunist.

So, I can predict he’s going to go after Electors personally…and then he doesn’t. Or any number of different things he might do to destroy the United States…when he’s just a ding-dong. An useful idiot to the Russians. He’s a value free historical figure. At least to date.

Therefore, if American finally collapses, in a sense we will do it to ourselves. Trump will just be the guy blamed for it.

The Birth of Trumplandia — Political Events Are Spinning Out of Control In The United States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With the SCOTUS rebuff of Trump today, we’re closer to figuring out which side is going to probably secede from the Union. For a moment there, it looked like it might be Blue States.

Now, it looks like it will be Red States.

Specifically, the 19 States that joined in on the case that SCOTUS rejected today. Throw in the 126 Congressmen who supported it as well, and you have the core of a Neo-Confederate government. Though, if they were honest with themselves, they would call their new breakaway nation Trumplandia.

But we’re still not quite where we need to be to for such a thing to happen. There are a few more hoops, a few more things to go wrong for the country before we take the final plunge to disunion. One thing that has to happen is the Neo-Confederates have to put up or shut up. AND, Trump would have to adopt their cause as his own.

As it stands, he simply wants to make money and avoid going to jail in New York State. If Trump DID begin to publicly entertain the idea of a Trumplandia, then, well, that’s it. The ball is then in the United States court — it would be President Biden, not Trump would would find themselves invoking the Insurrection Act and having to decide if the Union is worth it or not. (It is.)

Help us, Lincoln….

In a way, that would be the most unexpected part of all of this — if Trump left office…only to become president of Trumplandia…then, well, wow we wow wow. That would be a rather unexpected turn of events.

But, again, he would have to embrace the idea. As it stands, he may go insane, he may start a war with the DPRK or Iran…but he has shown no signs of wanting to be the president of a rump USA. One thing that might convince him is if there was a groundswell for him to do just that.

And, remember, Trump is nothing more than a deranged ding-dong. It’s very possible he would become Trumplandia’s president in name only, with Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo being the real power behind the throne.

Some observations — while I support Biden, he’s old as hell. He doesn’t really engender a lot of faith as to his ability to handle a Second American Civil War. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, would eat Trumplandia for lunch. She’s tough as nails and would make an great wartime leader. Someone who could save the Union just like Lincoln did.

So, for the time being, we wait.

America, 2020.

Do the 19 States have the balls to leave the Union or not? It FEELS like This Is It and we’re going to have a Second American Civil War. It really does. But there is more than enough time for things to calm down and for us to punt this particular crisis down the road.

Do you feel lucky, Trumplandia? Or are you all talk?

History Is Nothing If Not Ironic: Second American Civil War & The Coming Coup Against President Ding-Dong



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History usually takes the most ironic path possible. As such, the moment any hot war erupts between Red and Blue States, guess who gets the boot — Donald Trump.

Sure, he might have some sort of symbolic role for Red States, but if there’s an actual shooting war between Blue and Red States, I don’t see President Ding-Dong having much of an actual leadership role. I mean, hell, Mike Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ who will bring back Jesus as part of the Tribulation, that particular coup writes itself.

There are a half a dozen other would-be fascist dictators lurking in and out of American government right now that could push Trump out once things grew existential.

Or, put another way, once the civil war starts, Trump will have served his historical purpose — destroy the United States.

After that, it’s every man for himself.

Eve Of Destruction


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is it, guys. Something between now and January 20th is going to happen that brings the United States to its knees. We’ve crossed the Rubicon. No going back.

It’s just a matter of what it is.

I can’t predict the future, so there’s about a 10% chance we punt this problem down the road. But I don’t see that happening. A sizable portion of the population has a blind rage against liberals and have such absolute fidelity to the Dear Leader they would rather destroy the country they claim to love than brook the possibility of him leaving office.

So, we’re on the eve of destruction. There’s going to be a civil war / revolution in the context World War 3 happening as a number of regional conflicts explode into hot conflict — with nuclear wepons.

And any civil war in the United States is going to be horrific. Just off the top of my head, I could see 10 to 30 million die in the United States civil war because of the frequent use of WMD that would be seized by both sides. Then I would estimate close to 1 billion might die outside the United States as Pakistan – India, China – India, DPRK – ROK, China – ROC, Israel – Iran, Russia – Ukraine all go after each other at the same time.

Of note — no way Trump stays in power beyond serving the purpose of his Russian handles — we see you Gen Mike Flynn! –of starting the civil war. He’s just too big a ding-dong to lead the Red States into a civil war. Someone like Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo would stage a coup against HIM and then things grow extremely violent and radical. Pompeo, in particular might simply make Trump a figure head so he can do a rain dance every morning in hopes of bringing Jesus back. (Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and, as such, if the “Tribulation” happens, Jesus is SURE to come back, right, Mike?)

But America will be made great again, I guess? Liberals will be owned>?

Second American Civil War: Blue State War Aims & Military Victory Strategy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m not the political genius that Maggie Haberman believes Trump to be, it’s very, very, very easy for me to not only come up with Blue State civil war aims, but to lay out how they could win such a civil war.

First, Blue State war aims.

If I had any say in such things — which I never will, but work with me — I would say Blue State war aims would be a Renew American Covenant. If you work on the assumption that Lincoln renewed the American Covenant by turning the Civil War into a war of liberation, then you could say that the Blue State war aims would be to bring the liberal democracy prosperity of California to the entire United States.

Or, put another way, if you could keep California engaged with the dream of a more perfect Union, then you could get them to use their economic might and population size as the engine that would re-unite the States under a Renewed American Covenant. Unfortunately, this is something of a big “if.” California could just wash its hands of the Union and enjoy its status as a free country.

But I’m too much of a Neo-Lincolnist. I want to believe that California would serve the same purpose that states like New York and Pennsylvania did in the original civil war. So, that’s a war aim — make America great again by using California as model for what you want the Union to look like once you win any very tragic — and dumb — civil war.

Now to how Blue States would win any such civil war. If you can just keep California in the Union, they could easily blitzkrieg across the rather empty mountain and Great Plains states and link up with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. They would, in turn link up with Illinois and the Blue States of the Northeast. Then you do a pincer movement east and south. And, remember, if you’re using the Califnornia model of progressive politics, it’s easy to imagine Blue States in some way tapping into a supply of soldiers that Red States never would — women.

I would also promise African Americans in the South some sort of post-war reoperations for slavery if they simply make life hell for the Neo-Confederates of the South. That’s a pretty good bargain and would fix a lot of problems with systemic racism after any dumb, avoidable and tragic Second American Civil War.

But let me be clear — this is just a back of the envelope type situation. Of course MAGA would likely, in desperation, seize WMD in parts of the country they controlled and bomb — and gas — us all to the stone age in desperation. And they probably might simply start murdering African Americans like Nazis given any type excuse.

AND, you would have to factor in WW3 would be taking place across the globe as the United States went through a second civil war. So, the DPRK might vaporize a few cities in the United States out of spite while we were busy killing each other over “cancel culture.”

All I gotta say is — don’t have a civil war.

Of Deep State Radio’s ‘From Stab In The Back To Stop The Steal’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I listened to some of my favorite podcast, Deep State Radio today and they proposed that essentially the “Stop The Steal” movement is a precursor a Germany post-World War 1 “Stab in the Back” type movement in the United States.

I totally agree with that assessment but for one thing — they’re assuming we’re going to make it through the next few weeks without the whole country imploding. If we manage to punt this crisis down the road a few years, that’s probably our best case scenario.

This crisis is going to go septic now, not later. As one of the people on Deep State Radio said, we’re one Trump tweet away from significant political violence in the United States. And, as I’ve written before, Trump is playing a very dangerous expectations game right now. So much so as to be seditious unto itself.

As such, it seems to me that Americans collectively have crossed the Rubicon. There’s going to be a second American Civil War very, very soon. Like NOW. If it doesn’t happen it will be amazing. It’s like America is holding its breath to see if it will be a rouge SCOTUS ruling, a transactional Trump tweet, a massive truckbomb in NYC or LA or some major political figured murdered in cold blood that does the trick.

It definitely seems as though the Republican Party has been consumed by its most extreme elements. And, yet, I don’t even understand what their war aims are. There doesn’t seem to be any particular point to MAGA wanting a civil war other than…they want to keep Trump president? And as I keep saying, such a dumb (in real terms) war aim only gets you so far.

Blue States have bigger economies, bigger populations and better educated people. So, in a sense, what MAGA SHOULD want is simply the opportunity to leave the Union peacefully. A simple division of the country between Blue and Red. And, yet, that doesn’t seem to be their war aim right now. Replace “whities” with “liberals” in this SNL sketch and that seems to be the MAGA civil war aim going into it.

They have no war aim because they haven’t really given it much thought — it’s just a violent political grunt.

So, at this point, we only escape a shooting war in the United States if we’re lucky. All the conditions are there for an rapid escalation to the point where states begin to secede no matter what happens. And then the issue rests with California — will they stay and fight to re-unite the country or will the bounce and simply enjoy their new status as an independent country.

Then you start to wonder about Texas and Florida. And the exact status of New York City. If there was significant Balkanization in the United States, I could see NYC becoming a Free State of some sort.

New York City, 2020

Remember, I can come up with all the liberal-progressive Turner Diaries I want, in the end there would be no narrative or value to such a thing. It could be in the end it won’t be an “alls well that ends well” story like the Civil War, but, well, just the Turner Diaries or The Hunger Games or The Handmaid’s Tale.

The key thing to remember, of course, is this clusterfuck wouldn’t happen in a vacuum — World War 3 would happen if the United States imploded. So, that’s something to think about going forward.

Tik-Tok Is Extremely Brazen About Reading My Mind Using Digital Telepathy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Tik-Tok is going to get Big Tech in trouble. Let me give you an example.

Recently, I came out of the shower and looked on the floor. I saw how wet the floor was and thought about how I didn’t want to get my feet wet.

I did not tell anyone this. I didn’t write a blog post, text any one, nothing. The concept’s sole existence was in my mind.

Within moments, I looked at my Tik-Tok For You Page and, surprise, what video do I see, but one about to keep your bathroom floor from getting wet when you take a shower.

This type of thing happens so often with Tik-Tok that they have to be reading my — and millions of other people’s — mind.

If Tik-Tok has this technology, then Facebook and Google do, too. (Facebook has a patent on such technology, by the way.) And it’s possible that was why Tik-Tok was so bent out of shape about giving its algorithm to any new American owner — they were worried their extremely good, extremely intrusive Digital Telepathy technology would fall into the hands of the Americans.

So, I suspect China’s government is using Tik-Tok to read American minds.

Real Talk About A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is probably how The Guns of August felt in 1914. Europe was nearly giddy at the prospect of war. So, too, are a lot of people — apparently a lot of them in the South — so giddy at the abstract concept of a Second American Civil War that they are completely oblivious to what they’re proposing.

I keep getting pings from the Usual Suspect of former CSA states — South Carolina and Alabama — from people obviously excited at the idea of a civil war or some sort of right-wing revolution. It’s surreal and disturbing that anyone would WANT America to buckle into civil war.

For Right Wing people to hate liberal so much that they would be willing to actually destroy the country they claim to love so much in their bloodlust against them….dumb and extremely callous.

But here we are.

So, what’s going on is while we all fear that SCOTUS could rule in Trump’s favor with this dumb and dangerous Texas case, the actual case itself is something of a place holder. What’s really going on is we’re all nervous Something Bad is going to happen that forces the issue of civil war / revolution.

Or, put another way — MAGA wants to murder liberals for political reasons and they just haven’t summoned up the courage to put their thoughts into practice. It definitely FEELS as though This Is IT. Something Bad is going to happen between now and, say, no later than April 2021 that causes the country to implode, divide and get extremely violent.

America, 2020.

The issue for me is, given that MAGA apparently has no war aims going into any such hypothetical civil war other than “murder liberals” and you have the setup for Red States to lose any civil war or revolution they might be looking forward to. Yes, MAGA would have first-mover advantage and a lot more leadership (for no other reason than the entire Republican Party is on board with destroying the country), but if a civil war actually happened, things would likely move very, very fast.

Blue State leaders would begin to rise the occasion pretty quick. I’m a big believer that the average person has it within them to rise the occasion should it happen — but they need the opportunity. (Trump is the exception that proves the rule.)

So, it would not take too many months of MAGA running around blowing shit up and killing people before a pretty huge swatch of non-MAGA people (many of them conservative) would begin to plot a counter attack. And that, in itself, is something we would have to get used to — no one under about 80 remembers World War 2 when there would battles won and lost, but ultimate the war itself was won.

As such, the first year or so of a Second American Civil War would be extremely chaotic and bloody as things began to sort themselves out. (Remember the moment any Second American Civil War starts, World War 3 starts, too, and it’s very easy to imagine the DPRK nuking a United States distracted by its own implosion.)

But, gradually, the economic, population and educational advantages of Blue States would show themselves and Red States would be thrown on the backfoot. Things would grow very radical for both sides and I could see Red States doing some pretty massive atrocities against, say, African American in the South — or even Jews for that matter.

Or, put another way, as things grew worse for the Neo-CSA, its government might grow more radical and Nazi-like. A race war might erupt in the South — especially if, say, Blue States told African Americans that if they rose up they would get Reparations for slavery after Blue States won the civil war.

The thing any shithead cocksucker who is excited about a Second American Civil War needs to be told is — it would be a massive, historic and global tragedy that would result in the deaths of potentially 100s of millions via various limited nuclear exchanges both domestic and internationally. It would be a tragedy that we would only give value and a narrative after the fact.

Think about that.

It Just FEELS Like We’re On The Cusp of A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is on the brink. It just feels like we’ve reached the end of a macro cycle. That this is it. No more punting severe political problems down the road. No more talk. No more finger pointing about the culture wars.

We’re about to have a war war.

I honestly can’t give you any metric as to why this is the case. But it’s as if everyone suddenly realized that this Union can’t be saved. The Far Right has completely consumed the Republican Party and now it’s just a waiting game for SCOTUS to throw the election to Trump. Or an Elector to get murdered. Or something, anything, that pushes us past the point of no return.

It could be even that even after we all think we’ve dodged a bullet, something happens out of the blue — like a war between Iran and Israel or the DPRK and ROK — that pushes us into civil war because Trump is actively and I mean ACTIVELY being seditious.

He seems to think him saying in power using any means necessary and, as such, destroying the United States is somehow in his, personal, best interest. Why that might be the case is rather curious. Sounds like he’s a useful stooge to the Russians to me.

But what do I know, I’m not Maggie Haberman.

My Personal Second American Civil War Plans — Head To NYC As A Political Refugee


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have repeatedly said in the past that if the End ever comes I’ll either be the first person to die or the guy who brings back civilization. So, if a Second American Civil War happens, I’m my vision is I pack up my few belongings and head north to NYC.

But first, some context.

This is really a delusional idea — for the moment — because of what it would require. When I lived in South Korea, I did really well there because every day was an adventure and everything is extremely chaotic. But for things to get so bad in the United States that I would have an infrastructure to get me to some sort of Revolutionary NYC, then, well, things would have to gotten very bad indeed.

I guess me talking about such — at the moment — delusional things is me simply giving myself some solace that I have A Plan, if need be. But I do know that I manage to get to NYC under the conditions of this dystopian hellscape, I would probably do quite well for myself. I’m really good at abstract thought and I’m a pretty good organizer.

If nothing else, it would be pretty cool (in a sense) to live in the Manhattan Commune, or whatever the Revolutionary Government there would be called. The idea such a thing would even ever exist is, in itself, rather dubious. But it just makes sense that of all the potential places for a Commune, NYC , LA and Boston would be it.

Or to put things another way — I’m not going to sit on my hands if America goes tits up. I’m going to use whatever talents I might have to try to make people’s lives better again.

And, really, there’s a good chance SCOTUS is going to punt this particular problem down the road and it might be as late as 2024 — or never — that such a End of The World situation even happens.

But it definitely feels as though America is one Oklahoma City-style explosion in NYC or LA, or an assassination away from the whole country collapsing and people dying for their politics. I hope I’m wrong. I really do.