Month: November 2020

A Second American Civil War May Be Inevitable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything seems pretty calm right now, but for one thing — we don’t offically know who won. It’s possible that the moment we do know who won, two things will happen at the same instant — half the country will freak out with joy and half the country will freak out in rage.

Those two things happening at the same time do not make for a stable country.

And, what’s worse, it’s easy to imagine something pretty unexpected — a coordinated series of explosions across the country by far Right groups. I could even see the far Right’s first strike being a series of important assassinations of Democratic leaders. Anything they could do to push the particular situation out of the realm of politics and into simple violence.

If they did such a thing, it’s possible the next step would be two fold. One, a mob of angry New Yorkers might “take” Trump Tower (and Fox News.) Two, the political violence on the ground might grow so significant that we would see a consolidation of sides as there was a rush of domestic political refugees.

This doesn’t even begin to factor in the possibility of some sort of coup on the part of TrumpBarr. There are a wide range of options for TrumpBarr on that front. One of them being TrumpBarr uses any violence — even violence on the part of their supporters — to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.” Trump is a moronic coward, but his supporters may decide to press the issue and he will see this as an opportunity.

I’m definitely not advocating any of this, but I don’t think we appricate the absolute devotion to The Dear Leader that MAGA-Qanon people have and the passions that the election has stirred up.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong — I often am.

It’s just something to think about going forward.

The Future Of Hollywood in Autocratic America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is now an autocracy. It’s obvious that the Trumplandia infection gone septic. Because of white identity politics, about 50% of the population is so afraid of being “canceled” — or are seriously greedy fucks – that they would rather end 240 years of liberal democracy than risk giving away power to the browning of America or women with sexual agency.

But, is becoming a common refrain for me, none of this is going to happen in a vacuum. As TrumpBarr begin to strengthen their grip on America in an practical fashion — probably by weaponizing the already existing ICE infrastructure — this is going to give creative types something they thrive on: a limit. Art has to have limits so they can be toyed with, almost crossed and generally fucked with. Artists need something to make them angry and if they know speaking ill of the autocrat is a big no-no, then, of course, that’s the one thing they’re going to want to do.

I know for me, at least, that my rage against the Trump Administration has fueled the two years of hard work necessary to get me this far with the allegorical thriller I’m working on. (But it’s not Network — it’s not nearly as allegorical as maybe it should be given how aggressive ICE will become soon enough.)

It’s at least possible that once the shouting’s over and Trump’s court coup is successful, that 50% of the American population is going to need a cathartic release. As such, the entire American entertainment industry might be revolutionized. (But this in context — Hollywood may move somewhere like Perth before it’s over with if Trump puts the squeeze on studio executives.)

The point is — if nothing else, a lot of angry art might begin to grow very popular. We might, just might see the return of punk or rock music. The gritty movies like we had in the early 1970s might grow more popular. There might be extremes — the serious movies will grow darker and the funny movies more funny.

They will all have a point, though — attacking the autocrat without crossing the line so everyone gets arrested and thrown into an ICE camp.

No Fate But What We Make –‘Autocracy or The Big Ugly’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m actively tuning out of what’s going on right now with the election. If I could, I would be “The Man In The High Castle.” For various reasons, I can’t escape the events of the outside world seeping into my little writing cocoon that I’ve managed to establish overnight.

So, here’s what’s going on in my view.

I was right — autocrats never lose. The conditions that allowed Trump to win in the first place are simply too powerful. The descent into autocracy is complete. It happened right before our eyes over the last four years. We should have been tipped off about this inevitably by we could never muster up the political will to do anything about Trump, no matter how bad he got.

The bad guys have won. If you follow the idea of “form follows function,” the next thing that will happen once Trump steals the election at SCOTUS will be a swift consolidation of power. Using the threat of revoking broadcast licensing, the entire media world will be purged. And the entire intelligence infrastructure will be purged of the “deep state” as well.

As some point, very soon, Trump is going to start tweeting about how the budget deficit is too big and we ABSOLUTELY have to past a balance budget amendment. But we have to call a Constitutional Convention to do it. The same dynamic we’ve seen the last four years will happen. He’ll get his Constitutional Convention and because it will be made up of MAGA sycophants, they will go rouge and pass a “Second Bill of Rights,” which is, in fact, something akin to American Enabling Acts.

Trump will also leave NATO and form some sort of autocratic alliance with Russia, Turkey, Hungry, (rump) England and the Philippines. The entire post-world war two liberal order will come crashing down and everything will be rearranged. This will probably be sold to the American public — and reluctant Republicans — as being forced upon us because of the rise of China.

All this happens a lot quicker than you might think, especially if TrumpBarr have to fight to steal the election. The more difficult it is for them to win, or “not lose,” the more radical they will become. This is doubly so if there is any violence associated with either their coup in the courts or their final consolidation of power.

TrumpBarr will take “total control” by invoking the Insurrection Act.

Now, that’s what I think is going to happen. But there is, at least in the abstract, another possibility. I serious doubt this is going to happen because our autocratic infection has gone septic — our liberal democracy is dead and we just don’t have it in us to do what would be required to actually force #MoscowMitch to take notice.

In fact, the only thing that makes me think there is a greater than zero sum chance this other option might happen is, well, Trump is a fucking incompetent moron. Even with the help of Interior Minister Barr, it’s possible that because of the passions of the election and how the country is split pretty much 50 / 50 that, well, the suffer The Big Ugly.

So, really, the absolute worst case scenario that I’ve been ranting about for months now might come true — the United States may buckle. We may have something akin to a civil war / revolution for no other reason than Trump is now a caged rat who will do anything — even destroy the country — to prevent himself from going to prison post-election.

These two options are on something of a continuum from autocracy to The Big Ugly. In the middle would be something along the lines of an extreme 2000 outcome where the center-Left knows they got screwed over, they’re peaceful and the whole issue of what happened will get throw into the memory hole along with the Iraq War.

Or, put another way, something would have to change in a rather abrupt fashion for Trump not to “not lose” via SCOTUS. I would suggest keep an eye on Trump Tower. If passions grow so bad in the country that a mob of angry New Yorker’s take Trump Tower and gut it, then, well, the Big Ugly is here. Or be prepared for several Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City type events to happen across the country by the far Right. Something, anything that would break the seal on political violence. Something along the lines of John Brown’s attack on Harper’s Ferry.

But such events are very abstract. I’m not advocating any of that — Jesus Christ — I’m just, in an abstract fashion, giving you some sense of how you would know our inevitable march into a Russian style autocratic managed democracy might take a rather sudden left turn.

I just can’t see that happening, though. It’s over, folks. We’re an autocracy. And, in real terms, given how weak the opposition to Trump is — and how incompetent he is — it’s possible that Trump’s final consolidation will be far more gradual than I imagine. We’ll just wake up at some point in 2023 and realize we had a chance to prevent the dystopia we now live in and we blew it — in more ways than one.

Again, I’m not advocating any type of Big Ugly. That’s not my scene. I just want to finish my allegorical novel about the Trump Era and see if I can sell it. That’s all I want. Live long and prosper, folks.

The Identity Politics Critique of Pop Art is Lit


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am what I am, play my piano, sing my little Songs
— Ray Stevens

Here I am, an aspiring novelist working on some pop art. I am constantly reminded, however, of what a pain in the ass the Vox identity politics critique of pop art is. I just want to entertain people and yet in the back of my head I have to constantly worry about the Vox assholes poo-pooing anything I may produce because I’m just another CIS man who can’t write women because I’m too busy “fridging” them.

Jesus Christ.

This is how we got Trump.

I have come to believe that a lot of the criticism from likes of the very beautiful and talented Olivia Wilde and Jessica Chastain is they don’t even want men to write women — THEY want to write women. They just dress up their own creative ambition in an identity politics critique of men’s work.

This is not to say that their complaints aren’t valid — they are. But I’m making a good-faith effort to address their concerns and I fear that just because I’m a “CIS male” that it will all come to naught. There’s just nothing I can do to placate them because of who I am and what I look like.

The whole thing is a shit show — especially on Twitter — because the “thought leaders” on this subject are so fucking touchy that it’s best that you just not say anything and work on your art. The proof is in the pudding, as they say. But if you’re an anti-MAGA person like me your echo chamber is fucking full of women harping on the piss-poor portrayal of women by male authors. They’re right, it happens all the time.

All I ask is a fair shake if I try to address their complaints.

Erratic Election Night 2020 Live Blogging: Well, At Least The Novel Is A Go


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The novel I’m working on is pretty much just an excuse for me to rant about the Trump Era. So, if the Trump Era continues then I still have something to rant about and angry liberals will want to read it.

So, there you go.

The only thing hampering me throwing myself into the novel tonight is, well, I’m starting to get a little drunk. But by staying true to my mantra of “Autocrats never lose” I’ve positioned myself to continue working on the novel.

Autocrats never lose.

Erratic Election Night 2020 Live Blogging — Uh Oh


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s still early in the night, but I have a bad feeling about this. Something has to change for me not to assume Trump is going to win exactly the way he won in 2016 — he wins the electoral vote but loses the popular vote.

Unless there’s a coup, I’m going to tune out if that happens. As of tomorrow morning, I’m going to plunge head first into the novel. We have another four years of the Trump Era and there will be a built-in audience of angry liberals who will want to read it.

And I have to remind you that I have long believed that the Russians would never allow an asset as valuable as Trump to leave office. AND Trump rather randomly removed 1/3 of our troops from Germany. I know it’s still early, but that remains a significant fear for me right now.

What’s more the Trump Post Office gambit appears to be working as well — 300,000 votes aren’t going to be cast in swing states and the Post Office is lulzing a court order. They know they can ignore it with impunity because it matters is they help throw the election for the autocrat.

I don’t know if I’ll blog anymore tonight. I may be too depressed. If what I’ve been saying all along happens — autocrats never lose — the novel should begin to go very, very quickly as of tomorrow morning.

Impeach Trump After He Leaves Office?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone on Twitter said you can’t impeach someone once they’re out of office. The only reason why I event brought this up was how often Republicans have tried to impeach various out-of-office Democrats over the years. So, I guess, should the Russians let Trump lose, the entire Trump Era will be value free other than a shit ton of young hack MAGA judges and a massive tax cut for plutocrats.

We have to be honest with ourselves. Even if the Russians mysteriously allow Trump to lose, even if Barr doesn’t help Trump stage a successful coup in the courts, Trump is going to escape justice.

If you thought we didn’t have the political will to do anything about Trump’s crimes, just wait until he’s out of office. Everyone could be so relieved that a civil war didn’t break out that Trump gets what he wants — the opportunity stay a free man AND be able to run again in 2024.

Of course, New York State keeps making rumblings about going after Trump once he’s no longer president, but I find that to be something of a liberal fever dream. And, really, it sets a very, very bad precedent.

And, yet, given what a Singularity of criminality Trump is, it’s possible that after Trump is out of office that we are faced with only one option: impeachment.

This is not the greatest precedent to set and it would only work if Republicans lost the Senate, but it would be a way to, at last, allow the laws of political gravity to snap back into place (in a sense.) The reason is — it’s almost value free. In real terms, if Trump was impeached and convicted after leaving office, all it would mean would be he would lose his pension and he couldn’t run for president again.

This is an extremely problematic thing to do for a number of reasons. Even though it would be almost entirely value free — and difficult to explain to the average person — if any of the dozen or so scandals Trump has managed to punt down the road in the courts blew up in a massive way after he left office there might be a serious consideration of impeaching him even out of office.

While this is just the type of liberal fever dream that Twitter liberals have wallowed in for the last four years, the biggest obstacle to such an idea may be a a matter of attention.

It just would suck up way too political energy and attention to do such a thing. And, from Nancy Pelosi’s point of view, probably rile the already polarized nation up even more.

The only reason why I even suggest this is there are some doozy scandals Trump has run the clock out on and at least one of them might be so shocking, so heinous that there finally is the political willpower to do something about it, even if Trump is out of office. I’m thinking about what Don McGahn might finally say at some point. Or the various cases connected to Trump’s many sexual assault allegations.

And, yet, we probably should just be happy we get rid of Trump, should that happen.

All Systems Go


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While there remain some huge holes in my outline, all systems are go for the novel now. The first few chapters are stabilized again and I have a much better understanding of how I’m going to address some of the major structural issues that forced me to reboot the entire thing about a month or so ago.

I hope to have a big chunk of the first draft of the novel done by Thanksgiving.

But there are a lot of known unknowns. I don’t know if, well, a civil war is going to break out in the United States any moment now. I don’t know how distracted I might be by whatever does happen between now and January 20th and I don’t know how much I’m going to have to re-work some of the novel should the Trump Era mysteriously actually come to an end.

This novel has always been my personal critique of the Trump Era and if the Trump Era is over (for the time being) then I may have to reflect on how to amp up the “just a good story” part of the novel at the expense of the “allegorical thriller about the Trump Era.”

I know I’ve come with a great concept. I can’t help it’s taken me this long to actually get to the point where I can write it in a way that meets my personal expectations.

Trump Has His Own Fate — & The Fate Of The Nation — In His Hands


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the end of the American Civil War, Gen. Robert E. Lee was given the option of carrying on a guerilla war after Richmond fell. Thankfully, for all of us, he declined.

Well, it definitely seems as though we aren’t going to be so lucky with Trump should he lose. (I still think either the Russians or Barr will make all of this moot and Trump, like all autocrats, will “not lose.”) It’s possible that Trump’s ultimate legacy is he pressed the issue — he went out of his way to incite violence.

So, while under most normal circumstances, we would all be really tense but in the end we would look back and laugh at how hysterical we were, it’s very possible that Trump’s “final piviot” will be the destruction of the United States out of a combination of spite and self-preservation.

There are a number of ways this might happen. One, the most obvious, is he declares victory as early as possible, which is a signal to his supporters to fuck shit up. Or, after sulking a few days, his insanity and his criminality finally fuse in a rather dramatic fashion and he goes out in something of a blaze of glory. He actually becomes transactional in his efforts to destroy the country.

He could fire the head of the FBI and name Rudy specifically so people like Obama and Biden (and the entire “Deep State”) are frogwalked in a very public fashion. This, in itself, might be enough to cause a civil war. Or, put another way, Trump could lose in a landslide and start a civil war all on his own because he doesn’t want to go to prison.

It could get so bad that even Republicans begin to grow alarmed, and the whole Big Lie at the center of MAGA’s takeover of the Republican Party is exposed.

And, of course, if that doesn’t work, Trump flies AF1 to Moscow right before Jan. 20th and spills all our secrets to the Russians.

Last Minute Election Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a strictly political level, it seems as though Biden is in a very good position to have something of a landslide tomorrow. And, yet, there is my lingering fear that Trump didn’t remove 1/3 of our troops from Germany for no reason. He may have done it for the specific reason that he wants government sponsored Russian hackers to change votes in his favor.

I’m not optimistic.

If this doesn’t happen, then I will be completely flabbergasted. It will be inexplicable. Everything about both Trump’s native personality and his relationship to the Russians would indicate he didn’t just randomly decide to pull such a dick move on the Germans so close to the election.

One thing to remember is two things are careening towards each other — a political landslide for Biden and TrumpBarr’s total unwillingness to leave power without extracting a pound flesh. That’s a recipe for The Big Ugly because if Trump loses the Mandate of Heaven in a self-evident fashion and, yet, weirdly wins a second term, it’s very likely things are going to get bumpy pretty quick.

And that, in itself, may be the point. It may be that Trump really would rather destroy the United States than leave office — something I’ve been ranting about since he was elected.

What’s more, even if Trump is demonstrably trounced on Election Night, it’s very possible that’s just the beginning. TrumpBarr may go to ridiculous lengths to fight any Biden victory, even if they lose in a landslide. That, in turn, will, well, cause a massive shitshow, the likes of which we’ve not seen since 1860.

Among the things I fear are, massive violence that happens after Trump declares victory even though it’s self-evident he’s going to lose. TrumpBarr fucking with the certification of Electors — no matter what — so state legislatures name MAGA Electors instead of Biden Electors.

And, speaking of Electors, what House Trump wants is make things so muddled that SCOTUS rules that the MAGA legislatures of a significant number of battle ground states can name the Electors, no matter what. Or, put another way, Electors and their selection is the absolute weakness link in the Constitution. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where TrumpBarr win through violence and general ratfucking.

That, too, is a situation where there might be a civil war or revolution — The Big Ugly. So, in a sense, it’s possible that Election Night will be just the beginning of a very long, very painful episode in American political history that involves far more deaths than any of us could possibly imagine right now.

Or not.

What’s more, if, after a month or so Trump miraculously loses in the courts, we will then enter the “salt the earth on the way out” phase of things. Trump will pardon hundreds of his cronies — including Jared’s dad — and maybe even himself!

And, in the end, after he’s destroyed as much of the government as possible and ruined the Executive branch for a generation, Trump could very well leave the country around, say, January 10th and land in Moscow. He then quits and spends all his time with Russian hookers and telling Putin all of our secrets.

Prove me wrong, folks.