Month: September 2020

‘We Don’t Need Your Civil War…’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m seeing with a great deal of alarm growing chatter on Twitter that the extreme Right believes that a Second American Civil War has already begun. This is very disturbing for a number of reasons.

But one thing we have to accept, as I’ve said before, is no matter what happens as part of the 2020 election, we’re in a new era.

And, yet, let’s go down the dark rabbit hole of a Second American Civil War. Let’s think about this seriously for a moment. It seems to me that the key thing we have to think about is there are likely to be a number of last-ditch efforts to avoid a civil war. Threats of secession, constitutional amendments and conventions and God only knows what else.

Sadly, it’s possible that they will all be for naught.

There’s a lot of talk about California leaving the Union if an actual civil war begins and the more I think about it, the more dubious that seems. MAGA-Qanon are seriously conflating what they’ve managed to get as part of their destruction of the American political system with what they think they might get by running around murdering people.

Yes, it’s very well possible that MAGA-Qanon, with the help of House Trump could strike a knockout blow against Blue States simply because they take the idea of an actual civil war far, far more seriously than most “coastal elites.” But as the opening days of the original civil war indicate, history doesn’t go in a straight line.

As such, once Blue States understood the gravity of the situation, there’s a decent chance that they won’t leave the Union, but fight for its soul. And key to winning that fight would be California staying in the Union. It’s easy to imagine a large military force from California swooping across the Great Plains and linking up with their compatriots in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

That would make the Blue States contiguous on a geographic level and then they could begin to strike east and south towards the heart of the old Confederacy.

But that’s all really very speculative at this point. It could be that while there will be significant political violence — no matter what happens in the fall — that Trump will simply use Barr to steal the whole thing in a “legal” fashion and he’ll consolidate power and that will be that.

Remember, it’s extremely likely that the Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems so Trump “wins” on election night. In fact, as of right now, that seems the most logical outcome to all of this. The Republic will die a political, not military death.

Going back to the tragedy of civil war again, if American really does implode, you have to think about the macro geopolitical consequences. Who gets the US Military? What happens if the DPRK attacks South Korea? Or Russia does a major military strike again, say, the Baltics? What are we going to do? Anything?

The whole thing is tragic and needless.

And, yet, I keep getting pings from different directions that definitely indicate something akin to a civil war might happen. MAGA-Qanon is really fucking bloodthirsty right now and in their craven quest for absolute power over the Blue States, they might get a lot more than they bargained for.

Ratfucking The Election With The Russians: The Case Against Donald Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere. But I’m pretty good at abstract thought. I’ve been ranting about how Trump is going to steal the 2020 election as part of a quid pro quo with the Russians, but why do I think that? Here’s why.

Ratfucking an Election is Trump’s Thing
Just with the 2016 election alone, Trump did two major ratfuckings — he paid off Stormy Daniels just before the election and, in more general terms, was actively working with the Russians to tip the scales in his favor.

House Trump’s Blocking of Election Protection
Both the Trump Administration and the Republics in Congress really, really don’t want any investigation into what the Russians may be up to in 2020. They do everything in their power to stop any protection at all of our election or election systems. And we keep finding evidence that the Russians are already fucking with our election systems. And, yet, Republicans are completely indifferent.

Trump Keeps Talking To Putin
Since just about when Trump realized he might lose, Trump’s been talking to Putin on the phone about every two weeks. In fact, he is doing everything in his power to talk to Putin in private in September when, I think, the G20 summit is going to be held.

Trump Has Removed 1/3 of Our Troops From Germany
No one has any good reason for why this has happened. None. Trump, just out of the blue, freaked out and demanded this to happen in September. Very strange. It’s almost as if someone told him to do it for some reason. Maybe as part of a quid pro quo? And who benefits the most from such a move? Putin.

As such, it’s easy to imagine a situation where during one of Trump’s many phone calls with Putin, Putin suggests if he really wants Russian help so bad, that he do something concrete to show a good faith effort to help them out. What better thing than move troops out of Germany? It pisses the Germans off and, yet, there is plausible deniability. The deal gets the final go-ahead when Trump meets Putin in private at the G20. They shake on it. It’s the perfect crime.

Life During Trumplandia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One way to face your fears is to think about them so thoroughly that you turn an abstract fear in to a more understandable concrete one. So, let’s think through what like in “Trumplandia” will be like once the Russians steal the 2020 Election for Trump because we pulled out 1/3 of our troops from Germany at their behest.

Well, some of this is easy and some of it is hard.

It’s easy to see that once Trump is AGAIN politically pardoned for everything he’s done while in office that he’ll take his consolidation of power to the next level — he’s going to purge the press.

This could happen any number of different ways. But I’m going to assume it happens two different ways — “German Industrialists” do House Trump’s bidden by, say, buying up companies like Twitter while House Trump itself will lean on media companies to change their tune about House Trump….or else.

The broadcast companies — because of their government licences — are easy. The New York Times might be a bit more difficult to bring to heel, but when you have the entire power and weight of the US Government at your disposal it’s easy to imagine Rupert Murdoch finally owning the paper at last.

So, on a practical level, the first thing the average person will notice is a lot of fresh faces on TV and some pretty strange changes in tone at The New York Times and The Washington Post. I don’t think a lot of people appreciate how central the NYT is to the media ecosystem, so once it’s neutered, that will change a lot.

All the major late night talk show hosts will vanish off TV and a wave of new people will pop up who strangely avoid talking about politics altogether. In a sop to liberals, they may be women and minorities, but they will completely stop talking about politics because “it’s not popular.” It’s even possible that something weird will happen with SNL as well.

But all of this will happen in one fell swoop, so fast that there won’t be anyone to, well, report about it.

Once House Trump gets the free press out of the way, then Trump starts to rant about the need for a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” This is where some sort of doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights” will be pushed through the MAGA dominated convention and, lulz, the United States will be officially transformed into Trumplandia.

The question, of course, is how will this affect the average person?

This is a very interesting question because on one hand, given how fragile and rotting out liberal democracy obviously is, it’s easy to imagine that this transformation will happen quite smoothly. And, yet, Trump himself is such a massive moron self-own artist, that things may get all fucked up. Instead of pulling a fast one on everyone, Trump could be so ham-handed in his smash-and-grab on the United States that people get really mad.

If that’s the case, then we’ll just continue to drift into an autocratic managed democracy in fits and starts. It will be Trump’s successor — Cotton? Pompeo? Don Jr.? — who will be able to do all the ratfucking that Trump obviously is desperate to do.

But one thing I think we really need to keep an eye on in Trump’s stolen second term is how much money Trump Org is able to suck out of our economy. Our economy is significantly bigger than Russia’s so it make sense that the House Trump could become the wealthiest “royal” family in the world pretty quick. All that ill-gotten cash can be turned around to bribe anyone who might get in their way going forward.

In the long run, it’s probably First Amendment rights that Americans will notice the erosion of the most. But by the time the “final pivot” happens with MAGA-Qanon it’s going to be way, way, way too late to worry about shit like that.

People like me are going to be told to “shut up if you know what’s good for you.” That will be the final answer from any MAGA-Qanon who happen to get into a debate with people like me.

The sad thing is, they’ll finally be right.

Trump’s Quid Pro Quo With The Russians For Removing 1/3 of Our Troops From Russia & The 2020 Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve grown extremely jaded about the United State’s fate. All macro trends indicate that we are so, so very fucked. There’s just nothing at this point that can possibly stop our transformation from liberal democracy to autocratic managed democracy. It’s a done deal.

We need to start thinking about how this change will influence us on a personal level and what we can do to make your little corner of this shitshow better. Let me go into why this is now an absolute certainty.

It seems to me that it’s EXTREMELY likely that the Russians, in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany, are going to hack directly into our election systems. Now, let’s go through the different scenarios of what happens next.

We Find Out Sooner Rather Than Later
Ok, let’s say Trump “wins” the 2020 election in exactly the same fashion as he did in 2016 — he loses the popular vote by a significant margin by wins the Electoral College by a few thousand votes in some major swing states. A lot of people will be upset, but it’s happened before, so we’ll just chalk it up to “shy Trump voters” or the mysterious power of the “boat vote.”

Then, a few days or so after we’ve settled down and we brace ourselves for Trumplandia squeezing us of all of freedoms, massive news breaks — someone, somewhere has discovered absolute proof that the Russians fucked with the election in a direct fashion. Despite they’re best efforts to get away clean, they left behind evidence of some sort and there’s absolute fucking proof that they did it. What’s more, with a little digging it starts to grow apparent that there might have even been some direct co-ordination between the Trump campaign (read: Trump) and the Russians to pull this perfect crime off.

A lot of people on Twitter will get excited. They will begin to assume that of course this means Trump has lost and we can maybe have nice things again. Not so fast. The very same ratfucking that Trump used not only with the Stormy Daniels situation but with the quid pro quo with the Ukrainians will kick in, only at a far rapid rate because we have to worry about the vote being certified and Electors voting.

Rudy pops out of his crypt. He rants about how it’s all fake news. He goes on CNN and acts like he’s about to have a stroke. He admits Trump did it. But he rants about how it’s all legal and no laws have been broken. He could even admit that it was illegal by the end of the interview. But, remember, not only will all of this be a political issue, but the clock will be ticking as to certifying the vote and the voting of the Electoral College.

To make a long story short — because of the dynamics of the months between election night and January 20th, Trump is absolutely going to win. Absolutely. So we could literally know that Trump essentially was a traitor and by the time it was all over with 38% of the electorate would be booking their vacations in Russia they’ll be so happy it all happened.

And spare me any notion that there might be protests or a civil war. I just don’t see it. Even if there were massive protests for weeks on end, a lot of people would just be upset about the few riots that might be associated with this. Or the whole thing would be ignored. Only if there was some sort of General Strike might that catch the eye of the fucking craven cocksucker Republicans enough for something, anything to be done about this treason.

I’m not exactly thrilled at the idea of an actual civil war. I guess if the above scenario happened an actual fighting civil war might happen, but the end game on that is so up to debate that I can’t even begin to map out what might happen.

We Find Out Later
In this scenario, it’s not November to January when we find out, it’s a few years into Trump’s second term. Though, given that Trump is going to consolidate power in his second term, if we don’t find out before Trump purges the media, then, lulz.

But let’s suppose we find out before Trump nationalizes The New York Times and forces WarnerMedia to merge CNN with OANN. All the same things I just described above will happen, only Trump MIGHT get impeached again. But, sadly, the same thing will happen as the first impeachment — nothing.

Remember, Trump is an autocrat — if a very incompetent one — so all he cares about is power. Nothing else matters.

As such, our slide into an autocrat managed democracy is a done deal. America has fallen. We’re nothing more than a vassal state of Russia at this point, we just don’t realize it yet.

Get out of the country while you still can.

Mulling The Possibility Of A Reproductive Rights ‘Dred Scott’ Decision


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two macro trends in the conservative movement make you say, “Hmmm.” One is how absolutely bloodthirsty MAGA-Qanon is becoming. They are so wrapped up in “owning the libs” that they are chomping at the bit to do away with politics altogether and just run around murdering people they don’t like.

The other macro trend is how absolute conservatives are in their desire to to something of a counter-revolution against the culture wars of the last few decades by stacking the Federal bench with as many young hack MAGA judges as they can possibly appoint while they have the power to do so.

This is an example of why I hate extremism.

Being so wrapped up in winning the culture wars after a number of social issues are already settled in the public eye might make conservative spooge their pants, but on a political front it might not be the best option for them. They are so consumed by their own Right wing echo chamber, that they are completely oblivious to the fact that if, say, not only is Roe V Wade overturned, but any form of contraception is effectively outlawed, that there might be significant backlash among a pretty big swath of voters, specifically — women.

Now, yes, I know we’re an autocratic managed democracy now and House Trump has destroyed American democracy under its jackboot. I know that lulz, nothing matters and I’m going to die in an ICE death camp soon enough. But there is a very real possibility that women across the political spectrum would be politically energized if there was something akin to a reproductive rights Dred Scott decision.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But it is a long-term thing to keep in the back of your mind going forward.

We Are So Fucked


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A series of macro trends are all coming to a head very, very rapidly. In the United States, we all assume we will muddle through major political problems or simply punt them down the road until they’re moot.

But the election of 2020 is a unique political event. We already live in an autocratic managed democracy and Trump’s “victory” in 2020 will simply be the final nail in the coffin of an already dead republic. We’re going to drift in fits and starts, as we have for some time now, into an era of something along the lines of a semi-monarchical fascist state.

There are a few wild cards, of course.

One is Qanon.

It’s very easy to see that particular batshit insane element of the clusterfuck that is modern life growing so potent that some surreal — and extreme — things happen so rapidly that not until way, way, WAY too many people are dead in American Killing Fields do we finally do anything about it. It sounds hysterical now, but Qanon serves a very important purpose for a lot of dark forces at work in American culture and, so, lulz.

Autocrats never lose, so, really, the only minor hiccup in our immediate political future is when Trump “wins” and is extremely dumb and hamhanded about it all, what will be the reaction of the 38% of the electorate that is not in a personality death cult? We they get woke and take to the streets or will they simply shrug and resign themselves to being “Good Germans?”

But, in general, darkness has fallen over the United States. The bad guys have won. Either we’re an autocratic managed democracy like Russia or, because of Qanon, we turn into something a lot more like Nazi Germany than we’re will to admit to ourselves.

I honestly can’t game out which end of that spectrum is more likely. All I know is we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked for a long time. My current guess is about 40 years, given current demographic trends. Throw in global climate change, a limited nuclear war with the DPRK and the possibility of a Singularity and, well, things don’t look so great right now.

Again, if you can, get out of the country.

‘A House Divided’ — Unionism In The Age Of MAGA-Qanon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m by nature of a Lincoln Unionist. As such, I grow alarmed at the very idea that the Biden camp might, in desperation, encourage “Cascadia” (CA, OR, WA) to threaten to secede as part of a negotiating tactic once it becomes clear that Trump & Barr are going to ratfuck their way post-election to a “win.”

There are a number of reasons why this is, on the face of it, a dumb idea. The theory behind Biden doing this is they can get some much-needed Constitutional reforms (even though in the end House Trump would say in power.) Given how absolutely untrustworthy House Trump is, any notion that you could get concessions out of them that they might actually honor is ridiculous.

I, of course, don’t want any violence at all. But if the absolute worst happened, it makes a lot more sense for Blue States to stand and fight than to leave the Union. Now, to be clear, all of this is almost impossible for me to game out. I simply have no idea how, exactly, an actual “civil war” in the United States would work out.

But, as I’ve said, the first tip off we will have that this is Serious, is there will be significant political consolidation in Red and Blue States. This will happen in the form of places like Fox News, WSJ and NY Post literally being driven out of the city by angry Blue mobs. Meanwhile, it’s likely that within Red States all those fucking MAGA-Qanon fascists are going to begin to actively hunt down and murder liberals, hoping to drive liberals out of their states altogether. This is likely to happen very, very quickly as the two sides begin to figure out their war aims.

I think, in a sense, the scenario that suggests that Biden might even seriously contemplate such a “nuclear option” is really an expression of similar desperate attempts to keep the Union together during the 1860 – 1861 period. Even though on paper “Cascadia” could bounce out of the Union and do well, all attempt such attempt would do is give the US Military cover to put down the rebellion, just like they did the first one.

So, it seems as though a far better course of action would be to stay in the Union and attempt to court people like James Mattis (and others) who maybe are conservative but not MAGA so at least you would have their military training to tap into. No need to alienate them by attempting to leave the Union altogether

Also, remember, MAGA-Qanon, while very passionate and bloodthirsty, is only 38% of the electorate. No need to destroy the Union for that. Far better to for the majority of people who AREN’T completely insane to get their shit together and figure out how to re-unite the nation they all love.

But, I don’t know. It’s very obvious Interior Minister Barr is going to drop whatever legal nukes he has to for Trump to stay in office. So, unless the American people REALLY shock me, I think this is all moot. We’re just going to quietly slip into an autocratic managed democracy and that will be that.

Things Are Moving Really Fast With The #Novel


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After about two years of development, things are finally being to lurch forward dramatically with the actual writing of a serious first draft. In large part, this is due to how well I know the general plot of the story as well as a crucial suggestion by a “script consultant” who I paid to help me out a few months ago.

I really hope to have a finished first draft no later than Thanksgiving and hopefully by Election Day. I would prefer it be Election Day because I’m notorious for being completely immobilized when major clusterfucks happen in the Trump Era.

One of the interesting things about writing an allegorical thriller about the Trump Era is I just don’t know what the world will look like when I try to query it. Biden being president would put a significantly different spin on its context than Trump still being president. But I keep thinking about how Apocalypse Now was produced AFTER the Vietnam War was over, so it makes sense that people might want to read something like my novel to help them make sense of what just happened.

But only time will tell.

I really, really need to keep writing as fast as I can. This novel has no literary aspirations. It’s just meant to be a fun read that in hindsight you might realize has some deeper meaning to it.

What We Can Learn From The 1st American Civil War As We Lurch Towards The 2nd (Maybe)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I generally think anyone — regardless of political stripe — is being a bloodthirsty moron to be giddy at the prospect of a “Second American Civil War.” War is hell. It sucks. I don’t want it.

But it definitely seems as though should Trump not win election outright on Election Night even though the Russians lived up to their end of the bargain after Trump pulled 1/3 of our troops out of Germany, that the more difficult it is for him to “win” the more thuggish and ham-handed he will become. As such, Barr’s post-election ratfucking can only go so far.

There might come a point when the Blue States and Red States are actually at each other’s throats on a military level.

The beginning of the ACW1 indicates that after the shock wears off, the dynamics of history are not something anyone can easily predict. The thing that idiot MAGA-Qanon people are so delusional about is they seem to think that just because they have Ben Shapiro and Charlie Kirk on their side that somehow they’re going to win outright the moment such political violence begins to happen.

What’s more likely to happen is after some desperate last-ditch efforts to prevent it all, there will be significant consolidation in the respective parts of the country. Once it sinks in to the average American that they have to pick a side, no matter what, then some pretty fucking surreal things may happen. People you wouldn’t expect finally jump ship from the MAGA-Qanon personality cult might actually do it.

Or, put another way, the opening days of any civil war are going to be full of confusion. Both sides are going to wait for the other to make the first move. Lincoln, of course, was a genius at this and forced the South to officially start the war when he attempt to re-enforce Fort Sumter. The specifics will be completely different because, well, Trump is a high-functioning moron who will thrash about on Twitter as everything finally collapses.

One crucial issue is what the goals of each side would be as the civil war began. A lot of people think the Blue States would simply want to bounce, but I have some serious doubts. It makes a lot more sense that any civil war would be a pitched battle for the soul of the country.

Another interesting thing is Trump has a solid 38% of the electorate. That’s it. About 38% of the electorate is bloodthirsty enough, enough in the personality death cult that they would lunge at the opportunity to make “Q’s” dream of a liberal free America a reality.

But there are a shit-ton of Americans who simply want to live a peaceful life in a free country. And, as such, it’s reasonable to believe that Blue States (once they get their shit together and start taking things seriously) have a lot going for them.

One issue is, while I can generally game out things to Election Day, after that, I lose any ability to predict what might happen. So, yeah, we have postal service ratfucking. We have the bullshit Durham Investigation. We have Russians hacking direction into our election systems. All those things are a given.

But if somehow all those things fail to throw the election to House Trump, I honestly don’t know what is going to happen. It’s all up in the air. Remember, when you’re actually living through history, there’s no narrative or value. We GIVE it a narrative and value after the fact. We do so in hindsight so we — and future generations — can grasp what happened and why.

I will note that the first few years of ACW1 were years in which it was very touch and go for the Union. It wasn’t until Lincoln decided to make the war a war of liberation that the dynamic of the war changed significantly. So, I would tell Neo-Confederates whose political thought is nothing more than a “South Will Rise Again” grunt that history — especially in times of existential crisis — doesn’t go in a straight line.

But what do I know. The dystopian hellscape is already here. I just want to finish my novel.

Thinking The Unthinkable: Second American Civil War Prep


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ugh. The idea of America having any sort of major political violence is a gut punch. It’s just something I don’t want. Though, obviously, a lot of good old boys in the heart of Dixie are frantically searching the Internet about this revanchist fever dream — that’s why I have a little bit of an uptick in visits to this otherwise anonymous site.

I’m very content to keep working on my novel even as the country I love implodes. But there are a few things that make me uneasy about my own, personal fate, should the worst happen.

One is where I live. I live in Virginia, which should the absolute worst happen, is probably going to implode. Not only are there major historical sites in the state connected to the first American Civil War, but the Right is already screaming at the top of their lungs about how horrible it is to live in a state with a functioning democracy. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where should the absolute worst happen nationally, that Virginia is among the states where the first actual bloodshed occurs.

Another issue is, well, me. I’m not someone to sit idly by as the country collapses. Though he’s not some sort of personal hero or anything — I’m well aware of what a bloodthirsty tyrant he was — the person I can identify with as bolts pop off the Republic and water begins to rush in, is Trotsky. Something about how, as I understand it, he was hanging out in Vienna drinking coffee when the Revolution started seems like something that would happen to me. I also find it interesting that when he was in a power struggle with Stalin, he just choked. He just didn’t show up to really, really important meetings.

Regardless, I think I’m being extremely delusional. What’s more likely to happen is I’ll either be shot dead in the opening days of any political violence or I’ll try to help save the Union, but for various reasons I’ll just be what I am now — a nobody.

But I did learn something interesting from a parts of a YouTube talk by Jared Yates Sexton. He pretty much said we need to start treating an impending Second American Civil War the way we did the days before COVID19 struck the United States in a major way. That’s definitely something to take to heart. We don’t really think about when your country implodes that you might not be able to find food, have reliable communication or even electricity.

That, in itself, is rather deep.

And, really, I have serious doubts that there will be a civil war for the simple reason that autocrats always win. We’re just going to slink into an autocratic managed democracy and gradually, on a political level, become identical to Russia.

Honestly, it seems to me that the only reason we should be concerned about a civil war of any sort is the cold, hard fact that Trump is a fucking self-own artist. He’s a moron. That the fate of the Union rests on Trump self-owning doesn’t give me a lot of self-confidence.

In general, I think things are going to stay peaceful. The Russians will hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany and that will be that. It will all be something of a dud.