Be The Power
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m not claiming this is any kind of scoop. I think this probably pretty basic vetting that’s already been done on Amy Coney Barrett the last time her name was bandied about for SCOTUS. But here’s a bit of info I’ve discovered in the Internet aether about her during her Rhodes College years.
Make of that information what you will.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’ve decided that if need be, I’m going to head north towards NYC in the event of the advent of a Second American Civil War. There are some personal and practical obstacles to me doing this, but my general intention is to head that way at some point with the other thousands of political refugees that likely would exist by that point.
One my frequent refrains is I know myself well enough to know that if you put me anywhere in the five boroughs with access to the subway, I would likely make a name for myself one way or another. I’m too much of an extrovert and too driven not to make myself noticed. I’m well aware that this makes me sound both “delusional and stupid” given that I’ve not done anything for much of the last decade and — relative to the metrics of the average New Yorker, I’m just a big old rando loser.
And, yet, there’s a case to be made that if things have grown so absolutely bad in the United States that I become a political refugee that the “old ways” would have collapsed and a person like me might have a chance to rise to the occasion of an unexpected destiny.
The only reason why I even bring this up is I thought it would be interesting to imagine what life in a near future, “revolutionary” New York City might be. I’ve only been to NYC a few times and I love it. I used to live in Seoul and the two cities are very similar. In Seoul people won’t talk to you because they can’t speak English. In NYC people won’t speak to you because they don’t give a shit. But form follows function and my reaction to that is very similar — I thrive. What’s amusing is I also know that I probably would prosper more in LA because it’s a town based on storytelling and people are more willing to give a dumbass writer like me a chance because you never can tell.
Anyway, if things have grown so absolutely dire that I — and thousands of others — have been forced out of home for political reasons — I think the biggest difference would be how militarized the city would have become. Also, some of the locations of major conservative media outlets would have been gutted by that point as well.
One interesting thing would be the fate of The New York Times. The case could be made that on an institutional level, The Old Gray Lady has been on the wrong side of history. It’s at least possible that the NYT might have been destroyed — or radically re-imagined — because of the same forces that drove FOX News, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post out of the city.
On a personal level, I wonder what I might be able to cook up if I was crashed on someone’s couch in, say, Staten Island. I’d be organizing something, that’s for sure. I learned a lot from running ROKon Magazine in Seoul and a lot of the reason why I haven’t been able to exploit that skillset is the fall of ROKon Magazine left me emotionally hobbled and I simply had no motivation for a long, long time.
Anyway, no one listens to me and no one cares. And if they do, they usually — with good reason –dismiss me as a fool. But, as the song goes, you never can tell.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Dirt don’t vote. Dirt don’t fight. But what does vote and fight is people. Looking at the United States with a clear eye, it’s pretty obvious that MAGA-Qanon is very, very, very stupid for chomping at the bit for any type of civil war. They have a lot of big states with a lot of dirt. That’s it. They have a bloodthirsty 38% of the electorate in a personality death cult scattered across the 50 States and maybe 9 solid old Confederate States they could rely upon. But even then, the African American community in those states probably wouldn’t appreciate being put under a white power jackboot.
The best I can do is they’re conflating what they’ve gotten policy wise by abusing our political system with all the “wonderful” things they think they can get if they just start murdering people in cold blood. But as I keep saying, if things grew existential, a lot of those soyboys drinking lottes at hipster coffee shops and smelling their own farts would turn into Rambo pretty quick for no other reason than they absolutely would have to.
In a sense, what people like Roger Stone and Michael Caputo are doing is the same thing with Blue States that Hitler and Tojo did about the United States in 1941 — they see their enemy through the eyes of ideology. With the Axis, it was the supposed “degenerate” nature of American culture. With MAGA-Qanon, it’s something very similar — they are ignoring basic human nature. If you stick a gun in someone’s face, they just might freak out and surprise you.
So, I guess what I’m saying is if the United States implodes and we can somehow convince California to stay and fight, then the Blue States have a pretty good shot at surprising those fuckers Stone and Caputo, just like the Greatest Generation surprised the Axis. What’s more, Stone and Caputo are such fucking misogynists, that they are totally oblivious to the untapped skills that unisex conscription by Blue States would be able to tap into.
One issue that needs to be address is — why would Blue States stay and fight in the first place? Why not just leave the Union and establish some sort of liberal fever dream utopia? Well, there a lot of problems with that. First, there are a lot of conservative military guys who simply would not brook leaving the Union. Why force yourself to write off Gen. Mattis out of some sort of delusional belief that Blue States could actually leave the Union without a serious beatdown by the U.S. Military. Also, think of it this way — a lot of America’s problems would be solved if the entire country was based on the implied ideology of California.
California is a big, prosperous, diverse state. It would be extremely shortsighted for them to leave the Union when they could help save the Union and unlock a massive amount of untapped potential in Red States by forcing them to undergo a Second Reconstruction.
Or, let me put it more concrete terms — not only is the end of the Union what our enemies want (Putin, Trump) but there’s no assurance that they would be able to successfully escape in the first place. It would make a lot more sense to appeal to everyone’s common sense of being American and to re-imagine that idea, rather than abandoned it altogether.
The United States has a lot — A LOT — going for it, but our politics is broken. We need a refounding. We need a New Covenant. We need a Second Republic. And the only way to do that is to get California to believe in the Union again by telling them that, in essence, it would be a takeover. California in the Second Civil War would play the part of The North in the First Civil War.
Look at it this way — abolition was a very, very radical 19th Century concept until out of sheer desperation Lincoln adopted it as a war aim. The same thing with my proposal — to your average blue collar guy in small town Alabama, basing a Second Republic on the ideals of California would be a pretty fucking radical proposal — until they absolutely had to accept it.
Let me be clear that I keep talking about this not because I want it to happen — fuck that — but that the fucking MAGA-Qanon assholes seem determined to murder people who would again like to enjoy a liberal democracy — like me!
I just want to finish my novel. And no one reads this blog, so it’s not like anyone is listening to me. And if they are, they probably think I’m both delusional and bonkers. Or, “delusional and stupid” as someone once called me.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The only reason I find Trotsky noteworthy relative to me is we’re both screw ups who sometimes manage to succeed despite ourselves. With Trotsky it was founding and organizing the Red Army so it reached the Gates of Warsaw, with me, it was a doomed magazine for ex-pats in Seoul called ROKon Magazine.
Anyway, I am good at abstract thought and strategy. So, just for fun, let’s go through what I would do if 99.9% of everyone who should be doing this kind of thing weren’t interested and it was up to me save the Union.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I have yet to determine the Right’s logic for wanting a Second American Civil War. It just makes no sense. They don’t have any war aims. They have no agenda. They just want to kill liberals for some reason.
At least with the FIRST American Civil War, there was not only an ideology (slave power) but an agenda — leaving the Union and setting up the CSA. But if you were to ask Roger Stone what, exactly, he wanted by Trump taking “total control” of the country — and thus risking some sort of civil war — I don’t think he could honestly tell you.
What makes all of this even more surreal is, in all honesty, Roger Stone et al are getting everything, EVERYTHING, they want via a combination of favorable demographic-economics and the rather ineffectual nature of the non-MAGA portion of the American political system. Why shart murdering people in cold blood when the reason you might do so can be achieved without bloodshed by simply waiting.
The point is, as I keep ranting about, once politics finally stops being seen as any form of a solution to the nation’s problems, then the Blue States are in a far better position than MAGA-Qanon might think. MAGA-Qanon (apparently?) thinks they strike some sort of knock-out blow early on in any type of actual civil war and lulz, fuck you liberal.
While the prospect of doing this might make Roger Stone spooge his pants, in fact this is not based in reality. California has a huge population and a huge economy. If they absolutely had to, they could probably call up 500,000 men (and women) and blitzkrieg across the States of Nevada, Utah, Wyoming and Iowa on their way to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Those last three Blue States could probably call up a significant number of men (and women) as well and meet a New Model Army from the Bear State Republic somewhere in the middle.
Of course, none of this would be happening in a vacuum — I have no idea what the U.S. Military would be doing in all of this. But if there was some sort of civil war, it could turn into a revolution pretty quick if even the U.S. Military buckled because the brass supported Biden and the enlisted supported Trump.
But I am really pulling that out of my butt. There are simply too many different conditions and factors I can’t even begin to interpret. I just think maybe all the Blue Check Liberal hand wringing about political violence is not thinking big enough. It’s very possible that it won’t be lone MAGA-Qanon people blowing shit up, but organize state forces that absolutely are forced to do something about the implosion of the country.
Anyway.
Subscribe to my Soundcloud. (Wink)
It’s all very puzzling.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m sure Eon Productions is scanning the Web for posts like this, so let me throw my 2 cents in — Henry Cavill should be James Bond.
I’m well aware that Tom Hardy has allegedly been chosen for the role, but that’s just a rumor at this point. He’s a great pick, but when I think of the modern James Bond, I think of Cavill.
But there are a few obvious problems with Cavill. One, he’s a little too young. Bond is a bit older and grizzled. Also, he doesn’t have the hyper-masculine looks of Hardy, which seems to be what the producers of the modern Bond films are looking for.
And, yet, given Cavill’s stand-out role in Mission: Impossible — Fallout, I think he’s perfect. He’s a big guy and if the producers of the modern Bond films continue to have Christopher Nolan envy, then I think he’s just the guy for the role.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Any mention of Hitler is loaded. And, yet, why is that? The answer, of course, is how many people directly died because of him. But there was a time, in the early days of his rule, when he was seen as very much a Trumpian figure. It was only after the deaths began to mount that he attained his modern status as the human personification of evil.
While I’m sure there are a dozen historians quietly working on their Hitler-Trump dual biographies right now, the comparisons between Hitler and Trump are now growing alarmingly similar. But before we go any further, we have to remember that Trump, at least for the moment, is nothing more than criminally incompetent autocrat. It could be that for a variety of reasons, he’ll linger in the Germany 1933-1934 era and that will be that. Or put another way, he may simply hope to be something akin to Russia’s Putin, but not attain the more direct, vicious and malvalent control that Hitler got.
But the profound thing the rise of Trump potentially gives us is direct insight into the rise of Hitler. Now that we can safely make a direct comparison between Hitler and Trump (at least relative to Hitler’s rise to power and his early years), we’re close to understanding how, exactly, Hitler came to be. It definitely seems as though — if we take Trump a guide — that someone like Hitler was going to rise to power. Both men are extremely lazy and they don’t really do anything other than establish a “permission structure” for evil to grow and flourish. So, in a sense, we might get the age old question of was “a Hitler” inevitable, or was he just a particular quirk of history because of his special skillset.
Seems to me it’s the former. Hitler was inevitable because of macro historical trends, and, yet, he was something of a one-shot. He filled a historical and political need, but someone else wasn’t going to do exactly the same thing if something happened to him early enough in his rule. So, in a sense, had Hitler died at just the right moment, it’s possible that WW2 might not have happened. Germany would probably been something a lot more like Franco’s Spain given the available replacements to Hitler in the existing Nazi power structure.
And, really, the issue at this point is does Trump, after he steals the 2020 election, see it as his 1933 election and pass some sort of enabling acts as quickly as possible after his own Reichstag Fire. I’m thinking yes — probably in the form of a major domestic terrorism event. He’ll demand a Constitutional Convention and that will be that.
Yet, again, would Trump at that point go the Putin route, or would he lurch towards something a more Nazi? This is such a complicated question for a number of reasons. One is, why? He has made no secret of his obsession with and fidelity to Putin. That type of control — not Nazi ideological control — definitely seems is personal agenda for the United States as this point.
So, to that extent, one would be on safe ground to call me hysterical for claiming Trump is an American Hitler.
And, yet.
There are a few things that give one pause for thought. It’s possible that Trumplandia will, in itself, be a thing that historians compare other events to in the future. If Trump did go the Nazi route, the more direct political movement MAGA would go the direction of is the Khmer Rouge. Instead of trying to take over the world like Hitler and the Nazis, Trump and MAGA would implode the United States.
Everything exists — right now — for Trump to begin rounding up “liberals” and begin putting them in the already-existing ICE camp infrastructure. The American center-Left (read: everyone not MAGA) is so weak, so ineffectual, that Trump again the “total control” that Roger Stone suggests he make a grab for.
The reason I say this is how else was all of this going to end? The absolute fidelity of the MAGA-Qanon base and the complete complicity of the entire Republican Party as a result give Trump such power that he may — simply because he’s a moron — stumble into a Pol Pot type situation without even really meaning to. It’s not like Trump has any ideology at all other than how own personal aggrandizement and increase of wealth. It just so happens that the venn diagram of what he wants on a personal level and what his base wants is identical and, as such, he really doesn’t have to do anything but just be himself.
Do I really think Trump is going to ultimately be seen not as an American Hitler but as more an American Pol Pot? I honestly don’t know. He definitely has that option before him. I think he just wants to be an American Putin. And, yet, Putin doesn’t have Red Hats at his beck and call. Putin has a lot of power, yes, but he also has a lot of self-control. He uses the levers of state to do his bidding. While it’s extremely easy to see MAGA Red Hats turning into American Brown Shirts then American Khmer Rouge. What I mean by that is, it’s easy to imagine MAGA-Qanon Red Hats radicalizing once Trump consolidates power after stealing the 2020 election. Trump tells the authorities to stand down and he just sit back and watches the Red Hats do his bidding. It would give him plausible deniability. The whole thing might get out of his control, but he’s so devoid of empathy I doubt he would really care all that much.
At this point, let’s do a direct comparison of Trump and Hitler. First, both Hitler and Trump are very, very lazy. On a personal level, both men don’t drink. (Or at least say they don’t.) Hitler only got married late in life, while Trump has been married three times. Hitler had a very specific ideology, while Trump is completely devoid of an ideology. Hitler was reasonably sane, while Trump’s mental acuity definitely seems to be wanining.
I could very much see a situation where Trump’s downfall ultimately comes from himself. He grows so extreme — or allows the MAGA-Qanon Red Hats to grow so extreme — that a lot of center-Right-but-not-MAGA people (the bedrock of America) freak out. They get radicalized enough to bring House Trump down. Of course, this would suck massively on a macro political history scale.
The majority of Americans, by nature, are extremely docile and politically apathetic. So, Trump could very well found House Trump and let the country drift, over the next 20 years or so, towards being — at least on a political level — an American interpretation of Putin’s Russia. This seems a very real possibility.
And, in the near term, the issue is how difficult is it for Trump to steal the 2020 election? The more difficult it is, the more likely what his family might attain gradually over 20 years, he — and Barr — will try to grab over about three months. This would be so shocking to the average American that instead of consolidating power peacefully, the United States would implode into civil war, revolution or something akin to both at the same time.
This sounds crazy, but, then major historical events when you live through them are nothing more than a shocking series of random events to the average person. It’s not until long after the fact that historians, in an attempt to explain what happened to successor generations given those events value and an a narrative so as to make them easier to explain and understand.
But I continue to believe because of the Durham Investigation, the false promise of a COVID19 vaccine and Trump’s likely quid pro quo with the Russians (he removes 1/3 of our troops from Germany, they hack directly into our election systems), that all of this is going to be a dud. We’ll know election night that Trump has “won.” We’ll continue to drift into a more Putin’s Russian and less Hitler’s Germany and that will be that.
I absolutely believe that.
I guess I’m just a little nervous that Trump is such a fucking self-own artist that even with that easy-“win” he will somehow manage to fuck us all over because the MAGA-Qanon Red Hats see his victory as a green light to establish a white ethno-state NOW and not gradually over the next generation.
That’s when it’s at least possible that the American Ancien Regime will be washed away and a New Order will be established. What that looks like is anyone’s guess. It could be a Second American Republic or it could be Gileade. Which one it is, we decide.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Hollywood is completely devoid of new ideas. Why not at least reboot interesting concepts instead of, say, “Car 54, Where Are You?” Accordingly, one of the best Australian movies of the last 50 years is “Picnic At Hanging Rock.” It has a mysterious, ethereal quality to it. Given what it deals with — the mysterious disappearance of a bunch of young Commonwealth girls, it seems a perfect fit for Margot Robbie to do something with in conjunction with Millie Bobby Brown.
It would be a perfect chance for Miss Brown, Ms. Robbie and a bunch of other Commonwealth actors to gnaw on the scenery for about two hours. It’s a much beloved movie Down Under and so it seems a logical choice for Ms. Robbie.
But what do I know.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
On the occasion corresponding to this four years ago, all thoughts were anxiously directed to an impending civil-war. All dreaded it — all sought to avert it. While the inaugural address was being delivered from this place, devoted altogether to saving the Union without war, insurgent agents were in the city seeking to destroy it without war — seeking to dissole the Union, and divide effects, by negotiation. Both parties deprecated war; but one of them would make war rather than let the nation survive; and the other would accept war rather than let it perish. And the war came. — Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address.
I’m reading a lot about the Civil War now (for obvious reasons.) The thing that is clear to me is while it may seem as though a second civil war is inevitable now, it’s also very possible that it’s all going to be a big dud.
Trump, with Barr’s help, will consolidate power after he steals the 2020 election and we’ll just slip into autocracy with our eyes wide open. It’s possible that the center-Left in the United States is simply too weak, divided and concerned with identity politics to actually unite and do the hard work in the real fucking world to do something about Trump.
That’s a very real possibility.
And, yet. It’s also possible an actual civil war or even revolution may take place in the United States very, very soon. As such, it will probably open with a 9/11-level domestic terrorism event. John Brown’s raid on Harpers Ferry was the first real-world indication that the shit was about to hit the fan, that the country was, in fact, coming apart. Any modern equivalent of this would set off a cascading series of events which would buckle the United States into warring Blue and Red camps. Fox News would be raided by angry New Yorkers and MSNBC / CNN would be kicked off the cable in Red States. A multitude of people would feel unsafe because of their political views and there would be a massive migration that would consolidate the politics of Blue and Red States.
But what would be the actual event that caused all of that?
I’m thinking right now that if things go that bad, it would be a series of coordinated assassinations across the country on the part of MAGA-Qanon fucktards. They would think that by doing so they could “help” Trump consolidate power, but all it would do would enrage Blue State citizens off enough that they would begin to plot a significant reaction of their own. Another possibility is some crazy Qanon Representative might gun down a lot of Democrats in the House at some point when it became clear that we were in for dueling presidents.
All of this would be far more chaotic than my description might make you think. But I do think that we all need to have some sort of “bugout protocol” in place in case the long-feared Second American Civil War actually happens.
Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Everything is so dumb.
That I even have to say that all things considered it makes a lot more sense for California to stay and fight than try to leave the Union is so, so, very stupid. I say this because our historical amnesia hit the point where everyone has forgotten that about 700,000 Americans died the last time states tried to leave the Union?
Don’t answer that.
Anyway, let me at least make the case for California staying in the Union instead of attempting to leave when Trump inevitably rather abruptly and brazenly steals the 2020 election.
The key issue is what California is — a massive state with a massive economy and a largely homogeneous polity. In other words, the very things that Calexit people point to as a reason for it to “leave” the Union, I point to as a reason why it has to stay and fight.
I just don’t see the liberal fever dream of a Blue State Republic happening. More likely than not, California would have to take the lead on responding to some sort of tyrannical power grab by Trump and work together with other major Blue States to renew the Union’s covevant.
As I’ve said before, if you look at the realpolitik of the geography of the United States, the Blue State play book writes itself. You use California as your dreadnaught. You blitzkrieg across the Great Plains from California and meet up with your Blue State brethren in the Midwest.
Then you bribe African Americans in the South with the promise of reprations for slavery and, ta-da, you break the back of MAGA-Qanon and re-unite the country. You have go through a Radical Reconstruction phase that would address systemic racism and misogyny and you cruise into something of a second Gilded Age that bursts forth from the foundation of a Second American Covenant.
All of that is very dumb, in a sense, because I have no idea if that plan would work. But it is something to believe in rather than simply California leaving the Union and expected to get away with it without suffering a great deal.
And, really, wouldn’t California want to remake the United States in its image rather than go through extended “Troubles” that would likely involve IT going through something akin to a Reconstruction? There is strength in numbers, after all.
You must be logged in to post a comment.