by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
If the absolute worst happens at some point between now and, say, April of next year and the United States simply collapses into warring Blue and Red States, it would not happen in a vacuum.
For about 70 years now, the United States has been the lynchpin of a stable liberal global order. If it effectively was no longer able to maintain that order, it’s likely everything would go tits up pretty quick across the globe. A series of regional wars would likely break out after the shock of America’s abrupt collapse wore off. All those wars would be marketed as “WW3.”
So, in a sense, you can’t talk about a civil war / revolution in the United States without talking about it from a global perspective. One upside to America being indisposed for a few years would be the rise of China would be hasented rather dramatically so at least we wouldn’t all die from WW3 breaking out between the US and China. In fact, by the time America sorted out if it was a Red State or a Blue State, the world might be so different that we simply wouldn’t be able to process at it at first.
Instead of having to wait 50 years for China to become a superpower, it might happen in five years. And, remember, what’s even more troublesome is there are no assurances that China and Russia won’t actually physically meddle in our domestic affairs during any implosion.
But, if it makes you feel any better, there is a chance that our NATO allies might also help us try to sort things out. So maybe some French soldier in the United States as part of the NATO Expeditionary Force might go to Washington’s crypt at Mount Vernon and say, “Washington, nous sommes ici!”
Or, put it another way, if the absolute worst happened, the implosion of the United States would be such a massive global clusterfuck that it’s ending would be equal to 1815 and 1945 when it came to historical milestones. At 70 years, we’re kind of early for something like this to happen. Usually, it’s closer to 100 years between geopolitical events that totally scramble the existing political order.
And, let me be clear about some things. One is, as I keep saying a succession of things will have to go wrong for Trump / Barr for the United States to implode. We’re hurtling towards a peaceful transition into a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy. Essentially, it’s already here. The only issue is, because of American self-perception, Trump needs to be a bit careful stealing the 2020 election so as to not crash into the American self-perception that we’re a “free” country.
Trump is so painfully stupid and ham handed that he could, in fact, very well single-handedly destroy the country.
But, again, a lot would have to go wrong for Trump to do that. Somehow, his fucking with the postal service, a fake announcement of a COVID19 vaccine and the “preliminary summary” of the Durham Investigation AND the fucking Russians hacking into our election systems would have to not get the job done by election night.
I just don’t see that happening.
Trump is going to “win” outright on election night and that’s it. A lot of liberals will get angry on Twitter but, lulz, so what.
