by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Let me begin by saying I’m simply a casual observer of these things and no expert. Just have a reasonably educated opinion on the situation developing in Belarus.
On one hand, Belarus is a small country that should a tipping point come — like, say, a fixed election — would be a prime candidate for a successful revolution like what we saw all across Eastern Europe in 1989. In fact, Belarus is something of an anomaly in that it never even pretended to embrace liberal democracy after the fall of Communism there.
But there’s also a huge but you have to include whenever you discuss the fate of Belarus — but Putin’s Russia.
If events in Belarus grow too unstable, it is very reasonable to assume that Russia will strike rather quickly. They would say they were “invited in” then, well, never leave. Putin would do what he’s wanted to do for 25 years — annex Belarus outright.
Given that the United States is pretty much under Putin’s thumb in the guise of our traitor “president” Donald Trump, if ever Putin was going to absorb Belarus, now would be the time to do it. The United States won’t say a word.
There is a little bit of a risk, however, that if things grow too unstable in Belarus that the whole powder-keg in neighboring Ukraine might blow up in a way that Putin couldn’t control and he might grow way too tempted to sow the seeds of his own destruction by starting a general war in eastern Ukraine.
But that’s kind of stretching it at this point.
And maybe nothing will come of the protests in Minks. It’s going to be a long night, no matter what.
