by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m not an expert. But I can read. And here’s what I know to be true:
South Korea, Italy and Iran all saw exponential growth in cases of COVID19 after their first cases were registered. They knew this because they had socialize medicine and could test people pretty fast. When they did, they had a metric to use — the number of people they knew were infected.
Let’s turn to the United States.
We have four recorded cases in the last 24 hours and nothing, in real terms, is changing. And we have only a limited ability to test people. In fact, even though the testing front is getting much better, it’s still going to take some time to test people and get the result back. And, in real terms, we’re not changing our behavior on the ground. So, it seems possible that when we do finally get around to testing that we may be in for something of a Pearl Harbor moment when we realize it’s too late — we have cases in all 50 states.
That, in turn, would likely lead to a massive panic. And, soon enough, it’s possible we may reach our Jan. 1942 moment — the whole country buckles and it looks as though the Apocalypse has, at last, arrived. Then leaders will pop here and there on the State and local level and things will begin to get better pretty quick. People will still get sick and a lot more people than need be will die, but, in the end, we’ll manage to get through it all.
But, of course, there’s no assurance the “good guys” will win. There could be massive political violence, revolution, counter-revolution and civil war. What came up from the ashes of that situation would be anyone’s guess. And that doesn’t even factor in the possibility of a limited nuclear exchange between the United States and the DPRK along the way.
And, yet, let’s try to think of where the serious, major outbreaks might happen in the United States in the coming days. Here are my guesses and the reason.
Nevada (Lunar New Year, Caucuses)
NYC (Midtown tourists)
Florida (Superbowl)
LA (Lots of awards)
Iowa (Caucuses)
South Carolina (Primary)
Washington, DC (Impeachment trial, lots of foreign visitors)
There are probably others, but once we have our Pearl Harbor moment, the above are the places we might see massive numbers of people get sick and, sadly, die. I don’t want this. I would much rather suffer through Trump’s Fourth Reich than have something that horrific happen.
And, maybe, I’m wrong. Maybe jumping to conclusions. I do that a lot. Hopefully, I’m wrong and I can, at last, go back to developing my novel.
