Month: October 2019

How We Got Into This Trump Mess & The Fascist Dystopia Ahead

A Republic, if you can keep it.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

When the final history of the American Republic is written — and fear it will be a lot sooner than we would like — the end first came the night Richard Hatch won the first season of Survivor. Everyone was in shock. But it also marked the beginning of modern reality TV. Trump was the greatest beneficiary of that night, in hindsight.

Trump is the culmination of several macro trends in American political history. On one had you have the rise of Fox News. On the other you have how detached the average media person is from the practical lives of the average person in a flyover state. This is a side effect of income inequality caused by the Reagan Revolution. You also have the rise of social media. The massive flaw of social media is not only do the most extreme positions of any issue set the tone of debate, but it’s very, very easy for it be weaponized by an outside, hostile force.

Mix all this together and you find yourself where we are now. Fox News and income inequality in tandem caused a lot of Red State people to feel not only disenfranchised, but alienated from the media narrative that Blue State people were seeing. All of this accelerated in Obama’s second term as the lingering damage of the Great Recession began to sink in. Add to this just plain old racism being for political gain by — you guessed it, Donald Trump — and you end up in the situation we’re in.

In 2016, roughly half the electorate was primed for someone like Trump. This is when social media and the Russians kicked in.

So we find ourselves in a situation where many Red State voters actually are quite happy with the prospect of authoritarian rule. They can’t even grasp what the benefits of liberal democracy would be in the first place. And, so, here we are. It definitely appears as though there’s a good chance that impeachment in itself will be the final death blow to the American Republic. But I don’t say this as some sort of indictment of the process that may bring House Trump down politically.

What I mean, rather, is we’re finally seeing the fruits of a decades-long agenda on the part of Republicans. Even if Trump is politically vanquished, the Republican Party is now finally so radicalized that Pence could very well simply do exactly what Trump was going to do but with a more theocratic spin to it. And don’t get your hopes up if there’s a Pelosi presidency. Even that would be a delay to this process.

There are half a dozen would-be Trump successor on deck in the Republican Party ranks, from Kris Kobach to Tom Cotton to The Kooch. It’s a bit surreal to someone in LA or NYC the lengths that Republicans will to defend someone as demonstrably bonkers and corrupt as Trump. But that says more about the rot at the heart of our political system than anything else.

So, buckle up. My prediction is very soon we’ll have some sort of theocratic fascist “manage democracy”in the United States that will last at least 20 years. At some point at the moment when the youngest of the Baby Boomers begin to croke and the browning of America kicks in, there may be some sort of shift in politics. But for the foreseeable future, Trump’s American Carnage is definitely on track to become a hold hard reality.

I could imagine a few scenarios where this doesn’t happen quite the way I imagine. If Republicans really, really, REALLY overplayed their hand during the impeachment process and there was mass violence by people opposed to impeachment, then I think we might get enough of a delay in the march towards fascism for the browning of America to kick in. But that’s such a remote possibility that I just don’t see that being applicable. Even then, there’s a chance that Republicans would use the very violence THEY INCITED to do the very things I propose they want to do in the first place. So, in a sense, we’re in a no-win situation.

No one is going to save us. We’re on our own.

V-Log: Want To Start A #Podcast About #Impeachment

Please ping me on Twitter at @bumgarls if you’re interested.

Mysteries Of The Internet

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Stuff like the below in your webstats always give you pause for thought. Why would someone absolutely want to hide their URL? It’s either flattering or unnerving, I can’t figure out which. It could be flattering that someone powerful might be interested in what I’m writing. But it might be unnerving that someone powerful — read ICE — might be interesting in what I’m writing.

But, lulz, I’m a nobody. No one listens to me. And people who do generally get upset.

Page Views:1Exit Time:26 Oct 2019 18:38:52Resolution:834x1112System:Safari 13.0OS XTotal Visits:1Location: (No location info)IP Address: (5.181.234.220) Referring URL:(No referring link)Visit Page:

We Have To Be Honest With Ourselves About Impeachment

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Some people — especially liberals on Twitter — seem to think impeaching and convicting Trump would be some sort of panacea for the nation’s divisions. While I wholeheartedly support the Senate convicting Trump, the surreal defenses of Trump I’m seeing are beginning to unnerve me.

The crazy-ass part of all of this is Trump won’t even take the L on impeachment and wait for his acquittal by the Senate. While a lot of observers far, far smarter than Trump think his impeachment but not conviction is a net win for him, he, himself, obviously does not see things this way. Remember, two big things are happening at the same time. Trump himself is growing hysterical about the idea of simply being impeached. At the same time, smarter people like Moscow Mitch are more concerned with simply having Trump stay in power.

Put these two things together and you have a situation where Republicans don’t care if the trial in the Senate is not seen as valid. They would rather have the entire nation sour on the Republicans in the short term with the idea that by the time the election in 2020 rolls around passions will have cooled and they can go about their business. Throw in Trump going full autocrat by that point and their decision to acquit is an easy one.

And yet.

I keep saying there is a very real chance that it won’t even be the politics of impeachment that gets Trump — it will be Trump’s reaction to the process. So, let me say yet again — in the end it may be Trump snapping in a very, very public manner that is his downfall, not the actual politics of impeachment. We’re reaching the point where Republicans are so detached from reality in their defense of Trump that they are giving him a political pardon for anything he does from here on out. There is simply nothing he could possibly do that they would not dismiss.

Things get weird when Trump starts doing things at some point where are so absolutely indefensible on moral grounds and his grasp of reality is so tenuous as to be alarming that Republicans may find themselves in a pickle. Their natural instinct will be to absolutely defend the absolutely indefensible. It’s just when Trump’s Twitter offenses become transactional, well, I don’t know.

It’s at least possible the idea of absolutely losing the general even if they absolutely win their primary becomes something that keeps them up at night. But, lulz, who am I kidding.

Trump’s probably going to nuke us all into a hellscape and MAGA people will be happy because they think it will get us closure to the Rapture. I wish I was joking.

Nearly At The Midpoint Of The First Draft

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Well, I’m almost at the midpoint of the first draft of the novel. I have no idea how many words it is because, it’s the first draft and I don’t want to limit myself when it comes to telling the story.

But as of moment I’m feeling fairly confident. I can’t promise you my writing is all that great, but the story is really cool. I’m already sketching how some pretty significant tactical changes for the second draft. I have a whole lot of work to do, no matter what.

For the time being, my audience is myself. I just want to tell a great story that I enjoy. Everyone else can fuck off for right now. But that is going to change once I start writing the second draft. I’m going to care a lot more about word count once that starts. The point right now is to entertain yourself as the writer. The point is to finish the first draft.

You can’t edit a blank page, as they say.

Anyway. Let’s rock.

Scenes From A Bar — Anecdotal Evidence House Trump Has A Messaging Problem

Thank you, next.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m reluctant to give too much weight to anecdotal evidence that supports my personal political agenda. Confirmation bias is a real problem in The Age Of Trump. But no one really reads this blog in real terms, so I’ll indulge myself a minor flight of fancy.

Let me set the scene — I was getting wasted at this “secret” bar near my current abode when I found myself talking to a Judge Jeanine Pirro devotee. She was hard core. She was a little older than me but she was definitely the type of person Maggie Haberman would fall over herself to talk to– a middle-aged female Trump supporter. In fact, I said that to her. I made it very clear that there were people at The New York Times who would just love, love, love to talk to her about why she continued to support Trump.

Anyway, things went well — for a while. Once we established that NO ONE was above the law, things quickly went haywire. She wanted to talk about “Crooked Hillary.” Once I agreed with her that I thought that in 2016 the case could be made that Clinton could have been indicted things quickly went haywire. She would not admit that if I agreed to Clinton falling under the rule of law that Trump, too, had to fall under the same rules.

She just could not process the truth bombs I began to drop on her. The moment I mentioned “Individual #1” she started to shut down. Once it dawned on her that I had a rhetorical counter attack for each of her talking points she just locked up.

Soon enough, she bounced. She just left the bar.

And, so, I would say THAT is the source of the current Republican panic we see in Washington. While I generally believe the Republican Party is a criminal and fascistic organization at its core, when the common folk who support Trump don’t have a ready answer to criticism of Trump that’s a pretty big problem.

I have no doubt that Republicans are willing to ultimately defend the absolutely indefensible. They are completely unmoored from the norms of liberal democracy. “Democracy” exists only as a means to an end — that being more power for them. They are ready to ride the MAGA pony down to a Singularity of corruption, abuse of power and tyranny. In the end it won’t be politics that fells Trump, it will be Trump himself.

I still think Trump’s going to mentally explode. We’re going to have an actual mad man president for a few weeks, maybe more as we sort the situation out.

In other words, whatever your worst case scenario is at this point, that’s pretty much what’s going to happen. Buckle up.

‘We Have Seen The Enemy & They Are Us’ — The Dark Truth About Impeachment

The End.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I love running informal scenarios in my mind. All the scenarios I have come up with in regards to impeachment lead to one thing — the America we once knew is over.

I say this because even if we somehow magically rid ourselves of Trump politically — likely because he goes bonkers — we will earn ourselves only a brief respite from an inevitable descent into autocracy. The MAGA base will remain and half a dozen would-be younger, more passionate and organized successors to Trump will be waiting in the wings. And that doesn’t even begin to address all those young hack MAGA judges who will do everything in their power to make sure Trump’s vision of American Carnage is finally a reality.

What’s more, I coming to believe that the Republican Party will embrace impeachment-related violence. Hell, they may even do it themselves. Their partisan devotion to Trump is now absolute that the decision for 20 Republican Senators to vote for acquittal is now a very simple political equation. They feel the MAGA will support them as long as they vote to acquit. Republican Senators will believe time is on their side and independances will have forgotten their vote for acquittal whenever they have to run in a general again.

And, really, the only reason I think Trump has any chance of possibly losing in the Senate is his mental state will explode. He will have a very, very public meltdown as impeachment proceeds and there may come a point where his behavior grows so fucking alarming that Republicans will feel absolutely forced at last to The Pence Pivot. Even then, Moscow Mitch might feel as though he’s finally gotten as many young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench so, lulz.

In other words, we can delay the inevitable by a few months or years, but when half the electorate is MAGA friendly to such an extent that they don’t really care about facts then, well, I don’t know what to tell you. There’s going to come a point far sooner than any of us realize when leaving the country might be one’s best course of action if you’re center-left.

The Worst Of Times, The Best Of Times — Two Impeachment Endgames

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I love running scenarios in my mind. In fact, I’m kind of obsessed with it. When it comes to impeachment, however, as of right now it’s impossible for me to come up with an endgame. Both possible outcomes have such factual reasons for one to believe they will happen that I’m not going to try to pin down one. Here are both scenarios. You can figure out for yourself which one is more likely at this point.

The Thousand Year Trump

Jan. 20, 2025

Though it was an unusually warm January day, Donald Trump was, as usual, grumpy. Kim Jung Un had walked with him down Pennsylvania Ave in a spirit of world peace. Press Secretary Hugh Hewitt gushed on Fox News that Trump’s friendship with Kim assured “a thousand years” of peace and prosperity across the globe. Trump had finally bested all his opponents — even the Constitution — and was now about to begin his third term. Much of his the mid-part of this second administration had been consumed with a snap Constitutional Convention he had managed to force the convening of under the pretext of a Balanced Budget Amendment.

Of course that was a ruse. The Convention went rouge and radically transformed the Constitution into a Federalist Society wet dream. Among the many “improvements” was his personal ability to run for as many terms as he liked. Trump had weighed not running for a third term because of his age, but his ego, as always, won out. He did decide to name Ivanka his Veep and Don Jr., Sec. of State.

Trump allowed himself a moment of rare introspection. DHS Sec. Stephen Miller was now “disappearing” vocal critics of the House Trump on a regular basis. Miller was building ICE camps so fast it was growing difficult to hide the pictures from the People’s Assembly. The residents of some of the more populous military districts were unhappy, but they were always unhappy. He smirked at the notion of “blue states” and how quaint it seemed now.

Trump had finally crushed The New York Times when Peter Thiel offered Pinch an sum so enormous that he felt forced to sell. Though a lot of the more liberal reporters had left The Times, its new executive editor Maggie Haberman assured that he would get the coverage from the paper that he had so long craved.

The United States was now great. About half the wall had been built to the tune of a $1 trillian. The massive public works had helped ease the nation’s pain during the Second Great Recession. Trump was also pleased that the new Internet PIN was being rolled out. The Kurdish terrorist attacks in LA had helped push that measure through quite nicely.

Trump was at last a man in full. He had absolute power in the United States. He had founded a political dynasty that would last a thousand years. Occasionally Trump would, just to troll FOX News, shoot out a dick pic or tweet the n-word. He needed to do something big soon, Obama’s treason trial was about to be broadcast and he hated the idea of Obama being the center of attention, even it was entertaining to see him in the dock.

Trump was alone at last in the Oval when the door opened. He smiled broadly — Putin would finally get to sit at the Resolute Desk. Trump loved it when a plan came together.

A Dream….Not Delayed

Election Night, 2020

President Nancy Pelosi sighed deeply. She felt she had finally fulfilled her Constitutional duty. She had just finished a brief congratulatory phone call with President-Elect Warren. The two women giggle like school girls as the magnitude of the event sank in.

But the cost had been incredible.

In the end, had not been politics that fell Trump, but Trump himself. Though his mental condition had shown signs of decline before his official impeachment, his problems accelerated after the House passed the measure. Trump, in short, snapped. His tweeting went from objectionable to transational. He began to rant about the size of his genitals. He repeatedly told MAGA to hunt down and murder The Squad.

Republicans had, at first, simply either ignored the situation or said Trump was “joking.” This grew more difficult when members of the Freedom Caucus staged a putsch of sorts by rioting on the House floor and picking off Democrats they did not like with hand guns they had smuggled into the Capitol. The death toll was too large for her to bear to remember.

Though Republicans had attempted to message this tragedy as a sign that the cost of impeachment was too great and it must be stopped immediately, this is not how the nation viewed it.After the National Memorial service for the fallen House Democrats, the pace of impeachment accelerated rapidly.

In the end, it wasn’t even close. Trump was convicted by the Senate. He then held up in the Oval Office for close to three weeks. He was finally physically dragged from the White House under cover of night. Trump’s mental condition had deteratied by that point that he was hospitalized to an effort to stabilize him. Pence was president briefly until the outrage over the attempted Republican putsch in the House grew to powerful even for him.

But that was almost a year ago. President Pelosi had done her best to heal the nation. Her caretaker administration was a who’s who of people who had found themselves in opposition to House Trump. American politics was in total chaos for much of the presidential cycle with both sides struggling with how to deal with the sudden return of liberal democratic norms.

She sighed again.

The Union was again strong. The Republic safe, for now.

Zoey Deutch — A Star Is Born

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Zoey Deutch’s character in Zombieland 2 made a big impression on me. Something about it initially came off as annoying but the more I thought about it, the more I realized it was a star turn. This feeling only began to sink in more when I realized she was Lea Thompson’s daughter!

Holy shit!

Then I thought back to the scene where she hooks up with Jesse Eisenberg’s character. Something about it seemed like a homage. Then I realized that she had to be giving a subtle hat-tip to her mom’s scene in Back To The Future where she creeps on Michael J. Fox and talks about where “Calvin’s” pants are — on her hope chest.

I’m growing impressed with New Hollywood. Both Deutch and Margret Qualley are bringing the heat. I just wish someone would cast Eva Victor in something. She’s got star quality as well and she’s being underused doing Twitter videos.

Anyway. For once Hollywood isn’t letting me down.