Month: October 2019

Trump’s ‘This Is Fine’ Gotterdammerung Defense

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It appears as though Fascist Republicans settling on a very Putinesque defense of Trump going into the actual official impeachment process. Their messaging into this crucial moment in Trump’s administration is literally the “This is fine” meme. They want the average person to shrug at this egregious abuse of power because “everyone does it” and because Trump did not do something as explicit as the “smoking gun” of the Nixon tapes that, well, lulz.

There are a number of other related defenses involving social media that Trump-friendly people tell themselves to allow a good night sleep, as well. The chief of these being that only because of the excesses of partisan social media is what Trump even a big deal. Other presidents over the years did the same or worse and we just did not know about it or care. This plays into the Stormy Daniels playbook of scandal management quite well.

As I have repeatedly said, a sign that Trump is not, in fact, a political genius is how badly he’s bungling House Trump’s messaging of what he did. If he was smart — which he is not — he would take the L on impeachment itself and hang back for his acquittal in the Senate. All that’s required is a modicum of self-discipline. Don’t get mad. Don’t freak out. And don’t rile people up unnecessarily. Unfortunately for Trump’s allies, he is not known for have any of these traits.

On a strictly political level, House Trump’s, “This is fine,” defense, which aims to frame what Trump did as “bad” but not impeachable is a pretty safe bet. If you essentially tell people in absolute terms that in the end the interpretation of what Trump did should be done through the prism of partisan politics, then, well, Trump survives. There’s no sexxy tape of Trump saying something anything impossible to spin, so lulz. Trump’s acquitted by the Senate and free to turn around and do the exact same thing he was just aquitted for within 24 hours. He will be even more brazen with it, however, because when he inevitably gets caught AGAIN, Republicans will say, “You’re just out to get Trump. Let the people decide.”

And then Trump bribes individual Electors. Or the Russians hack directly into our election systems and change votes. Or Barr indicts Trump’s Democrat opponent in Oct. 2020. We will be nothing more than a Russian-style “managed democracy.” House Trump really will be The Thousand Year Trump and Trump’s vision of American Carnage becomes a reality.

So what could go wrong?

Trump.

While I suppose Gold Boy Jared might be able to stick some thorazine into Trump at some point, Trump is probably going to freak the fuck out at the prospect of even being impeached. He will become transactional with his Twitter offices, telling people what he wants them to do. When people start dying, Republicans will turn around and say, lulz, we can’t impeach Trump because people are starting to get hurt. While the prospect of people essentially dying to save the Dear Leader may make Fox News viewers spooge their pants, for a lot of average Americans who otherwise are raising their kids this would be very, very uncool. They are likely to grow quite alarmed and the pace of impeachment will grow faster, not slower. When the average person is shook awake at what’s happening to their otherwise peaceful nation at the hands of a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner, Trump’s fire break of public indifference is likely to evaporate.

Or if Trump goes batshit insane in a very public manner, that, too, is another non-political problem that Republicans will have to deal with. And they’ll defend it without blinking an eye. Trump shooting out a dick pic on Twitter. Or spewing racist obscenities during press conferences will get a big old lulz from Republican leaders. Or they’ll just not comment. If there’s any doubt that Republicans are old fashion fascists now, the fact that this scenario is, while worst case, is not really all that hysterical, gives a good indication of how true my assessment is.

So, as of right now, Trump is probably going to get aquitted. If you frame the facts of the case as an absolute partisan issue then there can be no other endgame. And there does seem to be some indication that Trump is finally letting the Adults handle messaging. Having said all that, there are also a lot of unknowns.

All I gotta say, is, for Trump to actually be convicted in the Senate, the bolts are going to have to start popping of American civil society in some rather unexpected and spectacular ways. We’re going to ender a surreal period in our nation’s political history when anything, anything can happen and does happen on a minute-by-minute basis.

Buckle up.

Republican Fascism & Shutting Down The Government As A Trump Gotterdammerung Impeachment Strategy

Buckle up.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The thing about Mueller’s testimony to Congress being such a dud is both sides learned the wrong lesson. House Trump got cocky. They thought they could begin the second, more sinister phase of Trumplandia without anyone doing anything about it. The Trump opposition, meanwhile, began to think Trump was simply a political force of nature that they could never defeat.

But, guess what — Trump is a self-own artist.

It’s darkly humorous how eager Maggie Haberman of The New York Times is to say in a quiet, droll tone how Trump is using his native Leadership Principle abilities to subtly influence various portions of the electorate with his political genius.

This, of course, is complete and total horseshit. Trump’s a barely functioning human being much less some sort of modern day Machiavelli. What Trump is, is very, very lucky. Someone like Trump was bound to pop up at some point between 2016 and 2024, it was just a matter of whom. And, really, I grow ever more concerned about who will be Trump’s fascist successor than I am he himself — not that he’s not an autocrat wannabe. As Benjamin Wittes of Lawfare once quipped, “Trump’s malevolence is only mitigated by his incompetence.” Or something along those lines.

The Real Trump.

In other words, Trump’s nothing more than a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner. That’s it. That’s all that’s going on. This brings us to some potential gotterdammerung impeachment strategies on the part of House Trump. I see these likely happening for no other reason than Trump is hysterical the thought of simply being impeached. When he faces a trial in the Senate, his mental state is likely to explode, not implode. We may face weeks of a demonstrable insane person running the government until the painfully slow wheels of government get around to convicting Trump — not really on the matter at hand, buth is extremely unstable mental state. (The 25th Amendment is a dead letter for the time being.)

Anyway, one of these potential gotterdammerung impeachment strategies is holding the government hostage. House could shut the government down and simply say, “You don’t get your government back until you end the impeachment process.”

This will, for about 24 hours, dominate the impeachment narrative. Maggie Haberman will coo at Trump’s political genius. The MAGA talking heads of FOX will huzzah. And, honestly, it might work given how fucked up the world is right now.

But it might not.

As it sinks in to the average person what is going on, there’s a decent chance this won’t slow impeachment down at all. It will, in fact, only heighten the sense of urgency and build pressure for conviction. This would go with my general belief that if Trump is convicted, it won’t even be because of the actual politics of what he’s accused of doing — it will be his complete and total mishandling of House Trump’s reacting to the impeachment process.

Another, more ominous, potential gotterdammerung impeachment strategy is Trump becomes transactional in his Twitter offenses. He starts to tell people what he wants them to do, in other words. He doxes the Whistleblower and “jokingly” tells people to “teach him a lesson.” Or a few carbomb’s explode in New York City with pro-Trump people claiming credit. Again, initially, things will be on House Trump’s side because generally a lot of people do not want Trump to be convicted. A lot of very powerful people — on both sides of the political spectrum — have a vested interest in Trumplandia lasting a full eight years.

But…

There’s also a good chance that once the shot wears off, the average American who to date has been pretty blase about impeachment will freak the fuck out. This is yet ANOTHER example of how Trump is not what Maggie Haberman would have you believe — Trump’s political firebreak is apathy. If people start dying in some last-gasp gotterdammerung impeachment strategy on the part of rabid Republicans, there’s a pretty good chance the average moderate American might stop thinking about raising their kids and paying their mortgage long enough to demand Trump be convicted by the Senate as soon as fucking possible.

I would say the most important thing to remember is the country can not withstand this much political turmoil without something really fucking bad happening. I simply can’t case out the endgame right now. And whatever the endgame is, we’re in a new political era. We will no longer be in the post-9/11 Era, we will be in either the American Carnage Era or the Post-Trump Era.

Ivanka Trump’s Political Future

Vice President Ivanka Trump?
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I am not prepared to believe Trump finally faces an existential threat, at least on a political level. Politically, he’s fine. The Republican Party is now the fascist Trump Party and he is likely to be acquitted on the facts before us and go about his merry way. He will bribe individual Electors, get Russia to directly hack into our election systems or he will simply get Bill Barr to indict his opponent in Oct. 2020.

But let’s daydream. What if Trump loses his mind during the process of impeachment or, say, there’s MAGA violence that makes the average person so furious with House Trump that Der Fuhrer finally meets his political match — himself. Who would President Pence pick as his Veep?

This is a far more complicated question than you may at first imagine. Pence wants to use the MAGA base to win two full terms on his own. So, it’s unlikely he would pick someone like Nikki Haley because she’s, well, not a Trump. That leaves Ivanka and Don Jr. The reason why I doubt it would be Don Jr. despite his popularity with the MAGA base is he’s such an outlandish hothead that he would likely use his position as veep to challenge Pence for the 2020 Republican nomination.

That leaves Ivanka.

It’s likely Ivanka would be nominated and confirmed by the Senate at lightning speed the moment Trump was somehow finally physically dragged out of the Oval Office. Pence would see Ivanka as the “safe” member of House Trump that would help him on a number of different levels. Ivanka as his veep would reassure MAGA as to his fidelity to House Trump. He would get to name the first woman — and Jewish — veep in American history.

Really, given how little the veep position really does, Ivanka is pretty much perfect for the job. You could pace out any number of different nightmare scenarios involving unintended consequences to this move, but that’s pushing it. Ivanka is an example of someone who thinks that the are “owed” something simply because of their connection to someone who paved the way. She’s in a curious political position because her bonkers brother is far more appealing to the MAGA base, while she herself is at least superficially someone who might for a heartbeat bring the nation together. The moment it sank in how bad she was on a practical level, the usual political divide we inhabit would kick in again.

Put another way — not even Ivanka could coast to the Republican nomination in any traditional manner. Her only real shot at ever becoming president would be if Pence somehow magically found enough shame to resign in disgrace. I just don’t see that happening. Pence at this point is more likely to do exactly what Trump would do only with a theocratic bent to it.

But I do suggest you keep an eye on Ivanka. If there was some sort of last-ditch effort at having a compacted resignation on Trump’s part (this will never happen) then maybe Ivanka-as-veep might be a bargaining chip desperate Republicans might use to coax a reluctant Trump out of office. Or, maybe they might use her as veep on a more basic level — to simply get Trump physically out of the Oval Office should he miraculously be convicted by the Senate.

Folks, We Have To Take Impeachment More Seriously

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As it stands, Republicans’ arguments against impeachment are essentially, “Lalalalalala I can’t hear you!” Because they can’t get any political gain from it, they see it as by definition illegitimate. That’s why they attack the process, no matter what. Because the facts don’t help them, they want to message the base that the entire thing shouldn’t be happening in the first place.

There’s a serious danger that should Republicans feel they’ve exhausted all political options that they will lulz the entire concept of liberal democracy and go full throated fascist on the nation. One of the central tenants of fascism is violence or the threat of violence to further political goals. So I feel it’s well within the realm of the possible for Republicans — specifically Trump through his Twitter feed — to become transactional. They will embrace the idea of violence so they can turn around and say, “We have to stop the impeachment process, people are starting to get hurt.”

They will, of course, wilfully ignore that they were the ones who incited the violence to begin with. All I can say is we have to take this into consideration going forward. We have to stop trying to deny that impeachment is happening. We have to start accepting that Trump did this to himself — and us — and we have to see the process through. This is a political war and there’s no avoiding the damage to our political system at this point. All impeachment is doing in real terms is accelerating some trends have been happening for some time.

Really, the issue now is, will Republicans stage a putsch of some sort if they get desperate enough. Will they collectively — at least in the House — decide they would rather martyr themselves in a last-gasp effort to save the political future of The Dear Leader than risk him being convicted. I draw no joy from this prospect. But given how hysterical Republicans are growing, it definitely seems there’s a greater-than-zero chance this might actually happen.

Or, put another way, we have to accept that on a strictly political level Trump is likely to be acquitted no matter what he is proven to have done. In real terms, it would be a non-political event that may bring House Trump down in the end. He goes bonkers. Or there’s some sort of impeachment-related violence the causes a brief–but powerful– radicalization of otherwise moderate independants.

I honestly have no idea what is going to happen. I just know no matter what the endgame, we’re going to be in a new political era.

The Cognitive Dissidence That Is Republican Impeachment Messaging

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

One common theme, it seems, when it comes to Republicans and impeachment is anger. Their minds can’t process what is happening. As such, they either shut down or start to get really, really, upset. This is rather unnerving because I’m left wondering what will happen when politics fails them. What happens when Republicans lose the vast majority of independents in the election struggle? What happens when they finally have only the 35% MAGA base to rely on for the re-election prospects?

This has not happened yet. Trump could still pull through using strictly politics and media messaging. That’s very, very possible. Republicans will be so riled up if they win that they’re likely to finally shed all pretense of believing in liberal democracy. If Trump survives impeachment in the Senate, then there’s a real chance that the general trend towards a fascist state will accelerate rapidly and the whole issue of “let the people decide” will be rather moot.

What’s more, the rot within the Republican Party is so astonishing that even Pence may simply use the damage Trump inflicted on the Constitution to turn us into a more theocratic version of American Carnage. That may be why both Barr and Pompeo have definitely been messaging the evangelical base with some of their official acts. As such, I feel we can not automatically assume that Pence will allow a free-and-fair election. He could very well simply keep Barr and Pompeo in place and do exactly what Trump would do with them.

I still think all things being equal, Trump will escape justice Senate Republicans will simply say something along the lines of “Trump is guilty, but it’s too close to the 2020 election — let the people decide.” They will believe that it’s better to win their primary in hopes of having a really weak general opponent than to vote to convict and to sign their political death warrant.

Thus, the only way I can possibly see Trump being convicted will be things that are not political. Trump snapping under the pressure of impeachment. Or there finally being widespread violence on the part of MAGA people. Either one of those would dramatically change the equation. If Republican Senators are forced not to think in political terms but in terms of national security, then they may realize they have no choice but vote to convict.

But, again, this is now a political war. And even if Trump loses that political war, the MAGA base will remain. And there’s a decent chance that a President Pence will fight a pitched battle with Kris Kobach, Tom Cotton and God only knows who else for the sweet, sweet votes of MAGA people.

So, in a sense, our best bet is Nancy Pelosi becomes president — somehow — and she serves as a caretaker president simply to make sure we have a free-and-fair election.

But who knows, I sure as hell don’t.

Midpoint Musings

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m at the midpoint of the first draft. This is the point where the tempo of the plot picks up considerably. I am actively not looking to see what my word count is. I don’t want that clouding my mind as I tell the story the first time. I am, however, pleased with the number of pages I have so far. I’m well on my way to wrapping up the first draft somewhere about 240 pages.

If you take into consider that a hardback novel’s dimensions are significantly smaller than that your typical printer paper, then that suggests I’m on my way to a novel that in paperback will be about 600 pages. Really, the goal is simply not to get too close to 200,000 words. If I can get into that sweet spot of about, say, 175,000 words then I’m going to be very happy.

The structure of the novel doesn’t fit the “rules.” My midpoint is actually probably maybe 20% past the actual midpoint. But I’m past the point where I have to lock myself into those artificial constraints. The amount of time the second half of the novel covers isn’t as much as the first part, so that’s another issue to take into consideration.

But the second half of the novel is definitely very action packed. Some pretty spectator things happen. I’m not too worried people won’t buy into the premise because, well, have you looked on Twitter today? So I’m trying to give myself a minor amount of time to clear my mind before I map out the specifics of the rest of the novel. Those six months of development I did really, really made writing the first draft much, much easier. I’m more worried about burning myself out at this point than anything else.

Anyway. Stay tuned.

V-Log: Idle, Incoherent Rambling About #Writing A #Novel

Some thoughts.

‘Disco Sucks, II — Electric Trump Boogaloo’

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme. I’m not saying that Trump being jeered will be anywhere near as historically significant as the Disco Sucks riot of 1979, but…it makes for great TV. It’s memorable and easy to understand. It may fade very quickly, or it may linger in the popular imagination.

Why Hugh Hewitt Being A Trump Sycophant Is Such A Bad Sign

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The thing about impeachment is it’s not going to be the panacea for the nation’s troubles that “woke” blue check thought leaders on Twitter would have us believe. A prime example of this is Hugh Hewitt.

Hewitt has gone full Baghdad Bob on us. He’s all in with Trump to an obscene level. Hewitt is so willing to excuse anything Trump has done that obviously merits not only impeachment but conviction that it’s a little surreal. The true tragedy of impeachment is that Republicans like Hewitt are willing to destroy everything, EVERYTHING, for a corrupt fascist moron like Trump.

I long ago realized that just because someone can passionately articulate an opinion, doesn’t mean they’re right. In fact, that pretty much describes most of the thought leaders of the Right at this point. They are running on fumes, but they are getting really fucking high snorting thought fumes. In all honesty, I wish Hewitt would drop the facade. The distance between Hewitt and an old school fascist at this point is pretty minor.

The reason why this is significant is a lot of people within the center-Left spectrum believe that since we have Trump dead-to-rights that we can defeat him on the merits. They think that there is some connection between facts and politics. While this is still the case for Democrats, for Republicans, alas, that’s just not the case. Republicans are so wrapped up in conspiracy theories because it gives them a framework to articulate opinions that are pretty much justification for an illiberal democracy like that found in Russia.

And, honestly, this is going to be the case going forward no matter if Trump is removed from office or not. Republicans will stop at nothing to turn America into Trumplandia. They crave power for power’s sake and they crave obtaining as much cash as possible in as short amount of time. This is not changing, no matter Trump’s fate. We may be able to delay the dystopian nightmare, but we won’t be able to stop it. I say this even more so knowing that our best bet of removing Trump from office isn’t even what he actually did to merit it in the first place — it’s the possibility that he will finally fucking snap and go completely fucking insane on us in a very public fashion.

Though I would, in passing, point out that the obvious endgame of the rhetoric that Hewitt spouts is real, honest to God, death and destruction. There’s at least a small chance that they will get so worked up over impeachment that they really, really, REALLY overplay their hand and sign their own political death warrant…at least long enough for the browning of America to kick in just as the youngest of the Baby Boomers finally croke. But I don’t want anyone to get hurt. I’m content to see how far politics can get us in our goal of ridding us of the MAGA mence.

Or, put another way, Hewitt ain’t going nowhere. Even if we push Trump out of office, Hewitt and his ilk have crossed the Rubicon. They will welcome the dystopia when it finally arrives.

Lulz?

Thoughts On The Future Of Zoey Deutch’s Career

Hollywood ‘It Girl’ Zoey Deutch / Imagine courtesy of Google Images

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I saw Zoey Deutch in Zombieland 2 the other day and was really impressed with her acting chops. A star is born, if you will. But let’s speculate on her possible career track.

The person she current most resembles is Isla Fisher. Fisher stole every scene she was in when she appeared in The Wedding Crashers and that pretty much has been the basis of her career to date. But, really, Fisher hasn’t done much since that movie. She’s appeared in the occasional romcom now and then, but she’s apparently been more busy being Mrs. Sacha Baron Cohen than having any serious movie career. So, in a sense, that’s definitely a possibly for Deutch. She could land her a powerful Hollywood man, pop out some kids and otherwise coast.

I’d like to think she might aim higher. In fact, to cement her career, I would recommend a Wedding Crashers type movie. That would be ideal for Deutch. Something a bit raunchy that would give take her to the next level. Ideally, she would befriend Phoebe Waller-Bridge and the two would do a film together with Waller-Bridge writing the screenplay. While I know the more “woke” amongst us poo-poo the manic pixie dream girl trope, if Deutch could wease her way into the next Charlie Kaufman joint, she could really light the screen on fire. I think they’re talk of a new Back To The Future movie, maybe she could shoe-horn herself into that movie given her mother’s connection to the franchise. Or maybe Ghostbusters 3?

Anyway, if she REALLY wanted to aim high, she might look for a YA franchise in development to helm. She might go the Jennifer Lawrence route if she managed to pull that off. Hollywood can be so dumb when casting talented young actresses. Too often they want to them to simply be one-dimensional romantic support for some young up-and-coming actor, or even worse, the love interest for some dusty old dude. I guess a lot what happens next with her career depends on luck and her agent.

Who knows. We’ll probably be a fascist dystopia before too long, anyway.