by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
One common theme, it seems, when it comes to Republicans and impeachment is anger. Their minds can’t process what is happening. As such, they either shut down or start to get really, really, upset. This is rather unnerving because I’m left wondering what will happen when politics fails them. What happens when Republicans lose the vast majority of independents in the election struggle? What happens when they finally have only the 35% MAGA base to rely on for the re-election prospects?
This has not happened yet. Trump could still pull through using strictly politics and media messaging. That’s very, very possible. Republicans will be so riled up if they win that they’re likely to finally shed all pretense of believing in liberal democracy. If Trump survives impeachment in the Senate, then there’s a real chance that the general trend towards a fascist state will accelerate rapidly and the whole issue of “let the people decide” will be rather moot.
What’s more, the rot within the Republican Party is so astonishing that even Pence may simply use the damage Trump inflicted on the Constitution to turn us into a more theocratic version of American Carnage. That may be why both Barr and Pompeo have definitely been messaging the evangelical base with some of their official acts. As such, I feel we can not automatically assume that Pence will allow a free-and-fair election. He could very well simply keep Barr and Pompeo in place and do exactly what Trump would do with them.
I still think all things being equal, Trump will escape justice Senate Republicans will simply say something along the lines of “Trump is guilty, but it’s too close to the 2020 election — let the people decide.” They will believe that it’s better to win their primary in hopes of having a really weak general opponent than to vote to convict and to sign their political death warrant.
Thus, the only way I can possibly see Trump being convicted will be things that are not political. Trump snapping under the pressure of impeachment. Or there finally being widespread violence on the part of MAGA people. Either one of those would dramatically change the equation. If Republican Senators are forced not to think in political terms but in terms of national security, then they may realize they have no choice but vote to convict.
But, again, this is now a political war. And even if Trump loses that political war, the MAGA base will remain. And there’s a decent chance that a President Pence will fight a pitched battle with Kris Kobach, Tom Cotton and God only knows who else for the sweet, sweet votes of MAGA people.
So, in a sense, our best bet is Nancy Pelosi becomes president — somehow — and she serves as a caretaker president simply to make sure we have a free-and-fair election.
But who knows, I sure as hell don’t.
