by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
This is a deep dive into the Trump Era and the likelihood it may end sooner rather than later and in a manner that saves the American Republic. I’m generally not too sanguine at this point. Something truly out of the ordinary will have to happen for me to have any hope.
I just don’t see that happening. Darkness has fallen. The process of whereby the Constitution is effectively destroyed in well on its way. I won’t say it’s too late, but someone, somewhere is going to have to get outside their comfort zone.
Having said all that, if nobody is willing risk what they have to save the Union, then, well, we get what were deserve. Let’s go through how we got to this point to begin with. Trump has survived a lot of political disasters, so he has every reason to believe he can do it again.
Access Hollywood Tape
Trump initially did not take the tape seriously. It wasn’t until he finally realized it was an existential crisis that he did something out of the ordinary — he apologized. That helped turn the tide and he achieved his goal — survive long enough to keep the nomination and be on the ballet on election day.
The Election
Trump was facing a historically poor candidate. He also benefited greatly from the excitement of the “Trump Train.” This was when a lot — a lot — of people simply tuned out anything they didn’t like about Trump. Also, remember, the second Comey Letter that said the FBI was considering reopening the Hillary emails case. That, according to Nate Silver, was a crucial factor on Election Day itself. Add to this the various forms of mind fucking the Russians were doing and Trump’s “victory” had something of an assist
The Mueller Investigation
This was more than just the actual investigation itself. This was really Trump’s first two years when he had a Republican House. That really was the firebreak he needed to learn how to begin to use the levers of power. this gave Trump the ability to do some pretty heinous things without any pushback from Congress. Trump was and is criminally incompetent. In some respects, after it became obvious that the Republican House — and specifically Paul Ryan — were completely abdicating their Constitutional role for partisan gain, Trump had free reign to do whatever he wanted. As a result, a lot of liberals began to ascribe Mueller with near-demigod like qualities that he, alas, did not in fact possess.
The Mueller Report
Trump survived this because of Bill Barr’s excellent media messaging. He released the summary, it wasn’t sexxy enough and the air drained from the situation nearly entirely. He then released a redacted report and it was so long and didn’t have something sexxy like an indictemnt of Don Jr in it, so people shrugged and went back to enjoying the “humming economy.”
Having said all that, how could Trump escape this current situation? How will we know he isn’t?
From a strategic standpoint, while the Ukrainian situation as of now is going to leave a mark politically no matter what, the real risk is more Trump’s reaction to the situation. Trump’s slowly losing his mind from the stress and so the real risk is not that he’ll be convicted in the Senate on the merits of the case, but that by that point he will be a ranting insane person who has sent the nation a dick pic or tweeted out the n-word to Obama.
I say this because, remember, all Trump has to do is survive a Senate vote. That’s it. That’s all he has to do. It doesn’t matter what he has to do to get there. Once he’s in the clear, he can go full tyrant. He fucks with the 2020 election in a pretty brazen manner. Nothing will be off the table. He will proactively work with the Russians. He will dox or bribe individual Electors post-election should he somehow magically lose despite cheating.
If that’s the only metric you have, then, again, I would worry about about Trump going bonkers than the actual case against him. Remember, Rudy, Barr and Pompeo are now actively looking for evidence that would subvert the Mueller report’s origins so Trump has the political cover to pardon Manafort and maybe Flynn. The judicious release of their “findings” would likely change the political narrative long enough for the wind to leave the impeachment drive. That no one has resigned or really gotten in all that much trouble indicates that the Trump Administration at last, finally doesn’t give a shit about anything but power. They have such little shame that they are completely unmoored from any facade of caring about the democratic conventions of liberal democracy.
Things have gotten so bad for a number of reasons. One is Trump’s twitter feed. I suspect a big calculous in the minds of most of Trump’s sycophants is they simply don’t want to cross him and end up on the wrong side of a tweet. That Pompeo — who has long-term political dreams — would admit that “I was on the call” when it is provable that he lied on national TV about this matter shows you what I’m talking about. In normal times, that would end his career. But for the time, he’s faced no political consequences. So, he’s assuming Trump will survive and, too, shall he. The other issue is the MAGA base is so absolute in their support of Trump that a lot of otherwise “normal” people are not acting in the best interests of the United States. Any discernible patriotism or principle they might have previously be assumed to have is not applicable.
The only minor hint of an existential threat to Trump right now is the complete inability of the Republicans to come up with any form of effective, fact based messaging. They’re doing a piss-poor job right now. It’s getting so bad that many of them are hanging all their hopes on finding out who Orange Crush is and then kavanaughing him. They will make narrative about any personal foibles he might have, not the facts of the case. That they might get the poor guy murdered doesn’t really seem to bother them right now.
Another small, but significant risk for Trump and the Republicans is in their effort to intimidate their opposition and whip up the base, they could very well radicalize a huge swath of the otherwise moderate middle. Americans find the term “radical” very ominous. Radicalism is simply not in their political worldview. But the conditions are there for something pretty astonishing to happen. It’s unlikely, but the case could be made that all the talk of “coup” and “treason” could light a fire under a lot of people who are already apoplectic over Trump’s policies in general. Trump has lost women and minorities. He’s running the country almost exclusively for the interests of angry racist misogynistic men. That’s why he and Republicans can come off as completely bonkers to the average person who didn’t vote for him — their signaling to the base in a code that they understand.
So there’s a risk that we might see the rise — briefly — of a radical center. I would call it a Radical Resistance, but that’s just me. If a Radical Resistance did emerge, then that would be one metric that might indicate Trump wasn’t going to survive. Indications that this is happening would be things like Jon Stewart joining Twitter and getting overtly political. Bush and Obama releasing a joint statement condemning Trump’s behavior. If stuff like that started to happen, that would be the “system” finally beginning to work in a sense. The bolts of society would begin to pop off and people would realize we were, in fact, finally in the Constitutional crisis we’ve all been talking about for about three years.
Things continue to be very fluid, so everything could change in a heartbeat. If this turns out to be some enormous mindfuck to purge the Federal government then, well, that’s that. It’s over. The end. If it’s not, then Trump faces the biggest risk to his political career — and maybe even his freedom of movement — that he’s ever faced. He’s already done significant political damage to himself by freaking out over the prospect of impeachment. He can always cheat himself to “victory” once he survives a Senate vote, but he has to get to that point first.
There are some very interesting things going on. I simply have no way of really understanding their context or potential consequences.
It seems as though the current Big Lie is that Schiff somehow was in cahoots Orange Crush. This is demonstrably inaccurate, at least from what I can tell right now. This is also mixed in with the suggestion that Orange Crush has some sort of nefarious “agenda.” While this is likely to be extremely effective with the mouth breathing MAGA base, it works solely to “own the moment” on Twitter and deflect from the fact that White House, itself, released documentation confirming what was in the complaint.
Also, not one, but TWO major presidential scandals were caused by people who weren’t exactly without an agenda. Mark Felt was Deep Throat because he was mad he got passed over to head the FBI. Linda Tripp and Lucianne Goldberg literally conspired with Matt Drudge to setup Bill Clinton and he still got impeached.
Another thing why is Trump so obsessed with being provided the cover needed to pardon Paul Manafort? And maybe even Mike Flynn. That House Trump continue to look for an excuse to pardon Manafort all in broad daylight as Washington burns to the ground is definitely a novel approach to this situation. I guess they both have no shame and believe that if they “prove” Manafort is “innocent” then all the “light treason” Trump has admitted to the last few days will magically go away. In a sense, I guess, they’re not far off. Either they successfully change the narrative altogether or the base is content with what they report to such an extent that it’s officially impossible to convict Trump in the Senate even if he completely loses all touch with reality.
Why clearing Manafort would be such an absolute obsession with Trump is very puzzling. Manafort is one of several direct links to Putin that might have some sort of leverage over Trump. It’s definitely very, very suspicious that House Trump would be willing to risk everything to give a political cover to pardoning Manafort. What gives? What’s going on?
To that extent, I just don’t see House Trump taking all this as an existential threat. In a sense, they’re using the, “Ok, then fucking convict me” approach to impeachment without any bravado or strategic messaging. Their actions simply don’t indicate that they are taking any of this seriously, probably because they know as long as they can keep Trump in office, they’re fine. Once Trump gets ANOTHER political pardon, he can pardon them, Manafort and Flynn for their crimes and they can move on. Trump actively and brazenly corrupts the 2020 election and the Thousand Year Trump becomes a reality.
Really, the only potential downside to this strategy is, again Donald J. Trump. Trump’s not handling impeachment very well, to say the least, and if he finally tweets out a dick pick or the n-word to Obama, then, well, maybe they have a lot bigger problem than they ever imagined.
Right now, I’m just not very sanguine for our prospects. The corruption and rot is simply too extensive. Someone will screw up. Or the “bad optics” of a major event will end the impeachment process. Or Barr will finally release his bullshit report and the MAGA base will finally have a response to what’s going on that lets them go to sleep at night. .
For America NOT to slide into a Russian-style “managed democracy” people with a vested interest in staying out of the frey will have to risk everything on principle. If that happens, then you’ll know things really are different for Trump. The system would be, at last, to work. Courage is the willingness to risk life and limb for your “scared honor.” You can’t be craven. You can use any type of traditional metric other than you have a soul and are a patriot. That type of thinking has been completely absent in the age of Trump and I have no reason to believe that will change. Jon Stewart — the one person who could be a leader in the move to end the Trump nightmare — has been completely silent. David Letterman giving a major address on a late night show would also help the push to punish Trump in a big way. Both Stewart and Letterman are great orators and might crystallize what a lot of people are feeling in a cogent manner.
So, as I’ve said before, right now, the fate of the nation rests on Trump going crazing and being a self-own artist. The stakes could not be any greater. This is the biggest political crisis in the nation’s history since the days immediately following the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. I recommend you read the speeches of Lincoln and Churchill. Look into your soul and see how much you love the liberal democracy that is your birthright as an American. Are you really prepared to take the political risks necessary to keep it?
Shelton Bumgarner is writing his first novel. He encourages you to contact him at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com if you’re not insane. But if you do want to hate on him, it proves he’s poppin.
