by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Let me get some things out of the way. First, I’m not British and I’m not in the UK so I feel my ability to express my opinion is limited. Or, if nothing else, I encourage you to actively ignore my views and simply read this for infotainment, if nothing else. Also, very, very few people read this blog so I feel like I’m simply talking to myself. But I can, if nothing else, simply try to give my value-free opinions on things going on in Great Britain right now.
The rise of Trump has taught Americans, or at least me, that in the modern age the bad guys always win. So, in a sense, I’m not expecting anything unexpected to happen in the next week. I think Boris Johnson’s government will “win” one way or another. No Deal Brexit will happen on Oct. 31st and that will be that. The Anglophonic portion of the Western World will lurch closer to a dystopia and we’ll all shrug and go back to enjoying our sucky world.
But the argument could be made the conditions are there for something pretty extraordinary to happen in the UK this week. We could find a situation where the Government and Parliament play a game of chicken to see who blinks first. If all else fails, Parliament might appeal to the populace to help them and then things get really interesting, really fast. I’m not advocating that, just observing that it’s possible. And I don’t even know enough in real terms to know if what I’m suggesting is even possible. I’m not claiming to know that. I like to run scenarios and this is just another scenario to entertain.
The reason why I don’t think this would happen is as far as I can tell, the leadership of Parliament just doesn’t have it in them to stand up to the Government in the way they would need to to be successful. It would take a lot — a lot — of courage to think outside the box to the extent necessary to pull of this scenario. And as of right now, neither side is radical enough. I think the Government from its actions definitely has decided to take whatever measures necessary to get its way. And I think both Parliament and the populace have not been pushed to the point that they’re willing to take the concrete measures to combat the Government’s moves. So, barring something truly extraordinary, the Government “wins” and that’s that. Everyone waits until post No Deal Brexit to see what happens.
I mean, what Parliament & the populace would have to do is so jaw dropping as to be outside the bounds of what most people would believe possible. Parliament would have to, effectively, declare war on the Government by not standing down as the Queen as ordered them to do. There’s a short distance from that form of open rebellion against the existing Constitutional order to a Revolutionary Government seizing London and declaring a republic. If that Revolutionary Government were to revoke Article 50 then, well, a civil war likely erupts. That doesn’t even begin to address the issue of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Or, hell, even Wales. This scenario would be, in a sense a sequel to 10 Days That Shook The World.
But like I said, I just don’t see the leadership existing. And I don’t want this to happen. I don’t want anyone to get hurt, full stop. I’m not British, so I think for everyone involved a political resolution is best for the UK. The States and the UK have long had a “special relationship” and so maybe post Brexit that will help,or something.
Though, in passing, the question of what would happen to the Queen in this scenario does arise. I have a hunch she would flee to Canada. That would be a bit surreal, but she would still have a large Commonwealth to “rule.” And, really, the strange thing about Brexit is how it is — at least from the States — appears to be an existential crisis for the Crown.
Anyway. I’m a nobody. Don’t listen to me.
