August 2019 – Page 4 – The Trumplandia Report

The Electoral College Is A Fatal Flaw In The American Constitutional System

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

A recent Federal court ruling says individual Electors are free agents. So, in real terms, the only thing stopping them from voting for whomever the wish is their personal affinity for the party they represent.

Given that Electors are pretty much just average people, it is inevitable that a faithless Elector — or two — is going to put a spanner into the democratic process sooner rather than later. Given how divided America is, I don’t see this problem being fixed any time soon, no matter what happens.

So, I could see Trump losing the 2020 election only to win the Electoral College because he personally doxed them all. I could see the entire Republican Party attacking individual after the actual popular vote to such an extent that the whole thing is at least thrown into the House where Republicans probably would have a decent shot of winning.

The whole nation being divided thing makes it almost impossible to get rid of the Electoral College long after it’s proven to be a fatal flaw in our entire Constitutional system. In fact, the only way I could see any reform on the matter is if the Electoral College went rouge en masse. If someone who wasn’t from either one of the major parties won, then I think both sides would suddenly have a reason to work together to fix the issue.

Now, the one thing about the power of the Electoral College is it’s a lot like quantum physics. The actual use of the human being that make up the Electoral College to stymie the will of the people is so profound that there’s no way of knowing what would happen. Legally, we’re stuck with whomever the Electoral College picks. That’s it. Once they vote, that’s the president. The only exception is a tie, whereby it goes to the House where the states vote by delegation. Each state gets only one vote.

The average person is simply not prepared for what would happen if the Electoral College went rouge. I don’t have an easy answer for what the reaction would be. Really, the only bright spot of saying Electors are free agents is you never know when that might come in handy. The Electoral system is so bad in modern terms that there are a few scenarios one could think up whereby you might want free agent Electors. One is the idea the Russians might brazenly hack the election in 2020. If they do so in a really brazen fashion, the idea that Electors might vote for who _actually_ won once we looked into things is at least something to make you feel a little better.

But I just don’t see the 2020 election being normal. In fact, I think it is probably going to be the last proof we need that the United States is no longer a democracy. In the end, I’m afraid, no matter what the popular vote, Trump will be sworn in for a second term

A surreal combination of demographics, power and money make it nearly inevitable that until something really wild happens, we’re going to have autocratic Republican presidents for the next few decades. The America that I grew up in is gone. We’re now much like the Roman Empire in its early days when it refused to accept that it was, in fact, an empire.

Republicans are going to remake America at last. In fact, I would go so far as to say the only thing that may save us is the apolitical nature of the US Military. It may be that a junta has to step in at some point. That may, in fact, be the only thing that keeps the country together in the end. Otherwise, the country is going to split apart — peacefully or otherwise.

An Op-Ed I Wrote

I got mad about something similar — but with the opposite political views — I saw on Facebook and so this is what happened.

This is what prompted my anger.

And this is my response.

An Observation About TikTok

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The thing about TikTok is has a lot of potential, and yet it doesn’t really have much of a point for older people (which may be the point.) What if you had something like TikTok, but the ability to ping people in conversations similar to Twitter?

Now, of course, this is idea is ripe for abuse. But if you were to manage it some, I think it might take off.

Trump Loses The Country (?)

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The conditions are there for our long Trump nightmare to end. Sorta. I say this knowing full well that the election is eons away in political terms and Trump is unlikely to go peacefully, if at all.

But lets do a quick run through of why it’s at least _possible_ Trump may find the obstacles to re-election insurmountable.

People Really Want To Vote
This, if nothing else, should concern Team Trump. The Trump strategy is to so rile up the base, make them so absolute in their devotion to him, that on election day they will simply have the sheer numbers in real terms to get him over the line. This is a risky strategy because while you’re so busy thinking about the base, you ignore how angry you’re making the majority of everyone else.

It Appears The Economy Is Slowing
This is probably the most significant threat. While his base would not care if he started a nuclear war, 60% of the electorate might. And for a lot of those people who generally don’t care about politics, if a recession hits between now and November 2020, they might begin to take notice.

The Mood Of The Country Is Shifting
This is the most nebulous of metrics. The only thing I can compare it to is the how different the early Carter Administration was to the later Carter Administration. A president sets the tone of his era. As such, by the third year in office, America is a reflection of him. As I understand it, this is not going well for Trump. The very things Trump harps on — immigration and free trade — people are beginning to disagree with him on. So, if anything, that’s a sign that his “base first” strategy is not working the way he may have thought.

Now, I still believe Trump is going to win re-election with absolute certainty. The reason I say this is: populists don’t lose. Add to this Trump will be a caged animal at any hint he might lose and I just don’t see him going down without a fight so angry, so politically damaging that he may leave a historically bad taste in everyone’s minds. Here’s why I just don’t see him losing, despite signs that he might.

The Entire System Protects A Presidential Incumbent.
While there used to be an ebb and flow to presidential history, that is not the case anymore. Since Bill Clinton, if you are elected, you stay in office for 8 years. So, while Trump is historically bad at his job, I just don’t see him losing. While Republicans will spooge their pants, I would suggest they temper that sentiment. Second terms are historically bad for presidents. Given what a bad president Trump is, there’s a real chance that having escaped impeachment his first term, he may not be so lucky in his second. Also, it takes time for leaders to bubble up in the opposition. So by the time Trump’s six years in, there’s a real chance he may finally have met his match. I think it should be Jon Stewart, but that’s just me.

Trump Cheats
I think this is the most dangerous aspect of all of this. Trump is such a fucking drama queen that he will do anything — anything — to stay in office. He is so selfish that he will be willing to bring the entire country down with him if need be. Some of the crazy things I could see him doing are start a war, any war. Go full Nazi. I could see him suspending the election itself should there be a major terrorist attack at any point within three months of it. And, really, the absolute worst of scenario is Trump goes after individual Electors themselves in an attempt to bully them into being faithless. Really, all he needs is just enough of them to be faithless to throw the election into the House.

The Russians & Plutocrats
This is the wildcard. I don’t see either the Russians or the plutocrats who love those sweet, sweet tax cuts allowing Trump to lose. Period. Both of these parties have way too much of a vested interest in Trump to let him be forced out of off. Now if it becomes pretty obvious that Trump lost the election and yet he mysteriously wins the election, we’re in uncharted territory. It would tear the country apart in a way not seen since the Civil War. And, since possession is 9/10th of the law, even if by the time the Electoral College is set to vote it’s been established that the Russians hacked the election — again — I just don’t see Republicans caring. Trump will stay president and after a few months of people being upset we’ll go back to being unhappy. We’ll be told that all the proof of Russian hacking is “fake news” and, besides, the economy is doing well. (Until it isn’t, of course.) There’s always a small chance that if it is absolutely proven that the election was hacked that Electors might go rogue. That, in itself, of course, would cause chaos. Which, of course, is what the Russians want in the first place.

So, Trump’s going to win re-election. All I can say is vote. Vote. Organize. Participate politically as best you can. I do think that if Trump wins re-election that he’s such a horrible person and president that he’s likely to be impeached exclusively for things he did while in office in his second term.

In 2024, of course, the issue will be Trump’s “legacy.” I really have no hope that we’ll ever get rid of Republican presidents for the next 20 years. It won’t be until the youngest of the Baby Boomers begin to die off that things will change. At about the same point the browning of America will kick in and things will begin to change. For the time being, however, we’re screwed.

So I Wrote An Op-Ed (Some Potential Scenarios)

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I have a friend who is the editor of a small town newspaper. We’re Facebook friends, and someone posted on his wall this MAGA editorial bemoaning the evils of liberalism or some bullshit.

I got mad and wrote a point-for-point response to this editorial and sent it to him to get published. It’s set to be published in a few days and I find myself thinking about different possible outcomes to this.

Nothing Happens.
In this scenario nothing happens. The op-ed raises a few eye brows among the newspaper’s conservative readership, but other than that it’s not even a blimp.

It Goes Viral
The conditions are there for it to go viral for one of two reasons.

It Goes Viral Among Conservatives
It’s possible that it will so enrage the conservative audience of the newspaper, that they share on social media. In this scenario, it garners a mention on FOX & Friends.

It Goes Viral Among Liberals
Ideally, this op-ed would do what I wanted it to do — be a direct answer to the very op-ed that made me mad in the first place.

Which one of these do I expect to happen? That’s a very good question. As of right now, I honestly don’t know. But should it actually get published, I’ll know one way or another in just over 24 hours.

My Personal Theory About The Mooch’s Change Of Heart On Trump & Trump’s Second Term

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It seems to me that The Mooch’s defection to The Resistance (somewhat) has more to do with a cold hard political calculation than anything else. I still believe that Trump is going to coast to a second term. And The Mooch acting the way he is more of a signal about Trump’s second term than any strength of opposition of Trump in the Republican Party.

Trump’s second term is going to be hell. The passions against Trump will grow ever higher and The Mooch senses he can have a lot more power as a one of a few #NeverTrumpers than he can as just another FOX News talking head. So, in a sense, The Mooch is positioning himself for long term growth.

I think in the end Trump is going to be seen as a transitional character. It won’t be Trump that turns us into the dystopian nightmare we all fear, it will be a younger, more focused successor. I do think, however, that Trump has replaced Reagan in the pantheon of Republican demigods.

I still am of the opinion that we’re going to wait until the youngest of the Baby Boomers drop dead in about 20 years for any hope politically. By that point hopefully the browning of America will be strong enough on an electoral level that things will sort themselves out.

Of course, we could just have a civil war.

But anyone who is spooging their pants at the notion of a second Trump Administration needs to hold their horses a little bit. Second terms are notorious for being far worse than first terms. So there’s a real chance that Trump could do something so catastrophic politically that he may face a real impeachment threat.

Or put another way — around 2023 things are going to start to get lit.

The Plan

By Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Things are moving faster again with the novel. At the same time, however, I find lingering frustration. Something happened recently that left a bad taste in my mouth. I suddenly find myself interested in writing a screenplay. As such, I’m probably going to buy FinalDraft sometime in September. I also hope to buy a few screenwriting books as well.

In the past, my biggest problem has been thinking up plots. I have plenty — plenty — of great ideas for movies. But I’ve always struggled with plots. But using the skillset I’ve developed from working on the novel, I believe I have a better chance at writing a successful (relative to me) screenplay. Or two. Or three.

I’ve vowed to myself that whenever I finish a screenplay, I’ll give myself permission to head to LA for a few days to poke around. But I won’t do so without a least one screenplay I can show people. While I’m quite pleased writing a novel and that’s my main creative project right now, I want to at least attempt to write a screenplay as well.

The issue is I have numerous ideas for movies because they lend themselves to something visual, something seen on the big screen. Add to this that I natively have a very extroverted personality, I believe if I put in the hard work of writing a screenplay or two, I might have at least a slim chance of being able to find someone in LA willing to take a look at it.

But, of course, I realize this is being extremely naive. Given my age, where I’m from and pretty much everything else about me, the possibility I would actually manage to pull this dream of is, in real terms, slim to none. But, if nothing else, it gives me something productive to do with my spare time as I work on the novel.

‘Hobbs & Shaw,’ A Political Review

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

When I was living in South Korea, I once found myself near the DMZ at a English Camp designed to give a young Korean the experience of living in an English speaking nation. While I was there, I saw in a waiting room a video of a kid’s show. What was notable about the cartoon was the name of the villain — Darwin.

This little bit of creatist propaganda has lingered with me over the years. That the show’s writer thought they could get young, impressionable minds to associate Darwin and by extension evolution with villany was both extremely annoying and impressive.

Before I begin, I would also like to note the “explanation” of Top Gun in the movie Sleep With Me.

Anyway, let’s get the point — the deeper political meaning in the otherwise summer popcorn movie Hobbs & Shaw. It has taken me a few days, but I feel as though there is a lot more going on with this movie than initially meets the eye. There’s a lot of sly politics in the movie that is so open to interpretation that it might leave one scratching their heads.

Let’s talk about the general plot. — spoilers ahead.

The plot, as much as there is one, is about a nebulous “deep state” type of company that wants to use its Snowflake programmable virus to kill off the weak and do a very Thanos-type restructuring of society. Two guys who ostensibly hate each other — The Rock (Hobbs) and Jason Statham (Shaw) join forces to defeat the bad guys and save the day. From what I saw of the movie, the only reason why I don’t think this movie’s politics is quite what you might this is comes from the people involved.

Given the fan service the movie does to The Rock’s WWE fandom, I’m led to believe the producers of this movie see its market as center-Right. At the same time, given how liberal-progressive Hollywood is, I am reluctant to believe that there aren’t air quotes around the movie’s superficial politics. I don’t know The Rock’s politics, but I struggle to believe he’s anything more than closer to center-Left than center-Right

Let’s break down some of the plot to see what’s going on.

The McGuffin is a woman — the sister of the Shaw character (22 years younger than he is, natch)– who has shot the virus into her bloodstream. If you REALLY wanted to get deep about the politics of this movie, you could say that it’s supposed to be, in a sense, about the “special relationship” between the United State in post-Brexit, post-Trump geopolitical world. I only say this because The Rock obviously represents America and Statham the UK. They are alone in the world and have to work together to save the day. (That a Russian helps save the day is an interesting twist to all of this.)

Anyway, there are some other things I noticed. That the programmable super virus is called “Snowflake” can be interpreted two ways. Either we’re meant to think of that obviously the Bad Guys are evil liberals (snowflakes) or we’re meant to laugh that the thing that could end the world is a bunch of snowflakes.

The reasoning that the villain gives for ending the world a very conservative-interpretation-of-the-liberal-worldview. Hollywood these days they find themselves having to square the circle. They want to appease a center-Right audience (to make money) but they also have to do so in a way that allows them not to hate themselves. That’s why, I feel, the politics of this movie are extremely muddled, but obviously there.

And, yet, I simply am not prepared to accept that this is Brad Bird Hollywood conservatism. For starters, Bird’s work is much more nuanced than this movie and has a stronger idology. This movie, meanwhile, seems to want it both ways. It wants to appease its center-Right audience, while at the same time looking slant eye at center-Left people in the audience in a way that suggests, “Can you believe what we have to do to appease the Right?”

I liked this movie because it did want it set out to do — entertain you in a cool theatre for a few hours on a hot summer day. I find it interesting, however, that the corrosive politics of the Trump Era has even seeped into what might otherwise be just a dumb summer movie.

Anyway, I probably will never know how close to the truth I am on this subject. I would like to believe I have dug up something interesting, however. There’s no way they would name the super virus “Snowflake” without there being an ulterior motive.

Shelton Bumgarner, a writer living in Virginia, is working on his first novel. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com.

I Have An Idea

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

While I’m deep into working on a novel, I have an idea, a notion, a conceit for a screenplay that’s interesting.

I have the general universe — and twist ending — down pat. What I don’t have is much of a plot. But I do have another plot lying around and I may use it to flesh out the plot of this idea.

But it really doesn’t matter right now. I have a novel to work on.

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