by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
The Iran-contra scandal hit me at just the right time growing up. It was the first big political event of my life and I read as much as I could about it. The thing about Ronald Reagan at the time of Iran-contra was there were two problems. One problem was that as the son of an alcoholic, Reagan hated conflict with a passion. The other problem was he was really old and his mental faculties were deteriorating. The first problem is what allowed Iran-contra to happen in the first place. The second only made the first issue worse.
At the time, there was impeachment talk. And there was talk about Reagan being too feeble mentally to continue being president. But in the end, the economy was too strong, he was too popular and he said he was sorry on TV. So, he was able to coast through his second term.
Now, contrast that with what we have going on with Trump. While the economy is doing well, Trump is nonetheless very unpopular. What’s more I feel the now-infamous “choppertalk” press conference recently where he said he was “the chosen one” and looked up at the sun is going to mark a new era in the Trump Administration.
I say this because it was appears to be something of a tipping point. The way people think of Trump’s mental state has changed a little bit. For a long time, we’ve been told to take Trump’s craziness “seriously but not literally.” His crazy comments the other day were a first in the sense that it’s difficult to defend them, no matter how hard you try. That Trump would use an anti-Semitic trope against America’s Jews is just weird. It’s difficult to say he is playing 8 dimensional chess on this one. I’ve seen at least one talking head on cable news try, but I don’t know how successful they were.
Now, I say the following with the some caveats. One is, authoritarian populists don’t lose. So, even if Trump becomes completely catatonic, Pence and Ivanka will carry him around Weekend At Bernie’s style for next six years if need be. In other words, in the event Trump finally loses his mind, we’re stuck with him. Because Trump is an avatar for white identity politics, he could effectively be in a straightjacket and you still could not get 67 Senators to convict him. And given how disorganized the Resistance is, I don’t see Trump losing in a general election, either.
So, what I see happening is various degrees of a Regency. Either it will be common knowledge that a handful of people are running the executive for Trump, or it will be done in secret for as long as possible. They’ll just wait out the clock and until it’s seen as a moot point.
Anyway, given our history with Reagan, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Trump would effectively be mentally incapacitated and nothing will happen.
Lulz?
