There’s a pretty good chance that there will be a political Fourth Turning at the same time we have something akin to a Petite Singularity. Nothing is for certain, but there is a pretty good chance that just as the USA buckles we will see AI take off in an unexpected way.
I have been messing with AI a lot of late and I’ve been stunned at how good an unexpected it is at times. It’s *possible* that the first use of LLMs in androids will be in some sort of dystopian American Civil War / Revolution that happens in conjunction with a global WW3.
Oh boy!
Or not. What do I know.
I do know that the CONDITIONS are there for some pretty fucked up shit to happen starting in a few months. I just don’t see how we make it through the 2024 election in any form of peaceful existance.
I still am not convinced that the worst is going to happen to the United States. There is still enough time for something to happen that will cause us to muddle through the 2024 presidential silly season unharmed. And, yet, I continue to worry that we’re totally and completely fucked.
Here are some events to look for starting in late 2024, early 2025.
The Taking of Trump Tower / Conservative Media One sign that the country is on the cusp of a civil war / revolution is Trump Tower may be stormed by angry New Yorkers. Also in danger would be the headquarters of the major conservative media outlets in the city. There might even be talk of there being a Free State / City being created in New York City. Political Rivals Being “Disappeared” by Tyrant Trump If Trump is elected again, one sign he’s going to hard tyrant route will be him arresting his political rivals on trumped up charged. This, in turn, will cause many, many liberals to flee the country in general because they have the means, motive and opportunity to do so. They will probably first go to Canada, then flee all over the globe, changing the make up of global culture as they do. Mass Migration As I mentioned, there is a good chance that if Trump goes nuts and becomes The Red King that many, many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will flee the country. Meanwhile, depending on how exactly things work out, if there is a National Divorce instead of Trump becoming a Tyrant King, there will be a lot of bouncing around the country as Reds leave Blue States and Blues leave Red States. If you see press reports of that kind of stuff happening — you need to grab your bugout bag. Secessionist Conventions If there is some sort of National Divorce — started by either Blues or Reds — keep a look out for Secessionist Conventions to being called up. If Blues leave the Union, I suspect California will be the first to go, while if it’s Reds, it will be Texas. One thing that will be interesting to see — if it’s Reds who leave the Union, how many of the deranged MAGA people in Congress actually leave their cushy jobs in Washington D.C. to join a rebel government?
World War Three If the United States collapses into chaos, the WW3 is probably going to happen. The entire post WW2 liberal order will collapse and any number of simmering hotspots around the globe will flare up, to the point that at least 1 billion people might die if nuclear weapons are used. And those 1 billion people will die specifically because of Donald Trump.
I make a lot of dark, dystopian predictions on this blog about the future. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t *know* what will happen. But I am…uneasy about our future. All the *conditions* are there for some sort of collapse of the United States for various reasons.
As such, my big concern if THAT happens is the DPRK will take advantage of the situation and start lobbing H-bombs in our direction. It will be a lot more difficult for Blues to win over Reds if, say, LA and NYC have been vaporized.
So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I am very, very concerned that the future could be a far, far darker than we’re willing to accept at the moment.
It could be that about 1 billion people will die directly because of ding-dong Trump. Buckle up.
It definitely seems as though we’re in for a significant “vibe shift” caused by technology in the very, very near future. This fact has gotten me thinking about how there might be some unintended political consequences to something akin to a Petite Singularity.
I came to this realization walking around Wal-Mart today. Imagine if instead of struggling to find a human to tell me what I needed to know, the place was crawling with one of those androids that Elon Musk is working on. Put Grok or ChatGTP in them and download the entire floorplans and the stock of the store and they could replace the humans that work at the store.
This might happen at an affordable level by 2030 — if we don’t blow the world up first.
But imagine if there was a sudden tipping point on the android / AI front and a lot of DDD jobs that undocumented people usually fill were done by androids. That might turn off the tap of people coming across the border simply because androids would be doing the jobs they would otherwise be paid to do.
Everything is so dumb
Also, isn’t it at least POSSIBLE that that, unto itself, might unfuck up our politics when it comes to MAGA and abortion? And if Incels can fuck a sex bot instead being idiots thinking women have a responsibility to fuck t hem, then…maybe a lot of the culture war fueled by feminism and a low birth rate….might just vanish?
So, there might be some upside to the rise of coming AI android overlords. Of course, this solution will, in turn cause the rise of an AI / android rights movement that I’m sure MAGA will love to oppose.
And remember, we still have the possibility of absolute chaos at home and abroad starting from right about now until sometime in 2025. It could be that just like how WW2 paused the development of TV that the coming Second American Civil War / WW3 will do the same thing with the Petite Singularity.
It could be that after about 1 billion people die across the globe — specifically and directly because of the actions of MAGA and Trump — and all that is sorted out that it won’t be until about 2030 that all the cool technological goodies that we’re being promised today will actually be rolled out.
The stand off between the Feds and Texas and the stand off between the US and Iran share one thing in common: they both risk uncontrollable escalation that might lead to some pretty insane things happening.
With the Fed – Texas situation, this is exactly the type of situation that members of the American Far Right have longed for for decades. It doesn’t help, of course, that the Russians are using social media to egg the situation on. One false move or misjudgment by either side and there could be, at least, a severe insurrection, and potentially a secession crisis.
Meanwhile, WW3 could break out if ANOTHER regional war broke out, this time in the Middle East. And such additional destabilizing event on the globe might push the DPRK over the edge and the next thing you know, the nukes are whizzing around.
As I’ve written before, one way to re-elect Joe Biden would be a Black Swan event like WW3 or a Secession Crisis. Hopefully, of course, none of this is going to happen and we can fight Trump politically on the merits.
Even though, of course, if he loses, he might start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison.
One of the reasons why Trump lost in 2020 was something none of us could have predicted in the years leading up to the event — a pandemic. The pandemic — combined with how dumb and lazy Trump is — was enough to jiggle the political dynamic to produce a Trump loss.
As such, we may find ourselves with another such “black swan” event — something akin to WW3.
We already have one major regional war in Europe and a minor one in the Middle East — if the US struck Tehran because of today’s death of three solders by a Iranian proxy group, then, well, all bets are off. Because if, say, Iran used one of the three a-bombs it apparently has access to on, say, Israel, then, yikes, that would so destabilize the globe that soon enough the DPRK and China would probably start lashing out as well.
There would be a rally round the flag affect and, there you go, Biden is re-elected. Of course, if, say, the simmering conflict between Pakistan – India — China also got hot….things might grow rather awkward.
It could be that rather than the US having a civil war / revolution or turning into an America First autocracy, the whole globe just collapses into chaos and…saves American democracy.
It feels like the entire Anglophone world is in the shitter these days. Of the major English speaking nations, three out of the five are in some sort of long-term political crisis.
I suppose you could blather on about the “Fourth Turning” happening, but that’s just astrology for dudes who like World War 2.
It’s all something of a mystery. It’s entirely possible to imagine the US having a Civil War, Great Britain collapsing and Canada pretty much becoming a failed state all within a few months of each other.
But, for the moment, it seems as though it’s the USA we have to worry about. If things got really bad here, then both Canada and Great Britain would not be far behind.
And that doesn’t even begin to address how if the USA goes tits up about 1 billion people would die because something akin to WW3 would break out. The nukes would be whizzing around like crazy.
At the moment, malignant ding-dong Trump has an air of invincibility and inevitability about around him. He’s going to win and we either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we have a revolution then civil war.
But I can’t predict the future and there is always a chance that some sort of “Black Swan” event could happen that would give us an off ramp just like the pandemic did in 2020. Of all the possible Black Swan events that might happen, something that might be marketed as WW3 is definitely among them at the moment.
If, say, Iran and Pakistan nuked each other. Or if the DPRK went at it with the ROK that would be enough for the American press to say, “Buckle up, America, WW3 has started.”
That, in turn, would cause a rally-round-the flag movement (at least at first) and that would help Biden. A lot would depend on WHEN WW3 happened. The later it happened, the more it would help Biden and potentially allow us to avoid a dystopian hellscape.
It seems as though within 18 months, we may very well literally live in the world of the movie “Her,” with the world of “Ex Machina” not being far behind. The issue, of course, is are we ready for both a political crisis and a technological “Petite Singularity” happening at about the same time.
It also makes me wonder if it’s inevitable for MAGA to transition into a neo-Luddite movement. It would make a lot of sense for this to happen because a lot of the people who would be the most disrupted by a sudden lurch into the future would be, well, MAGA people.
I also think that 2024 will be the first presidential cycle whereby a Universal Basic Income becomes a serious policy issue. Of course, to get it, we’re probably going to have to have a 30% VAT and tax the economic activity of non-human actors.
I can’t predict the future. I don’t know what is going to happen. But I am both concerned and intrigued. A part of me believes that much like a WW3 paused a lot of consumer technological development, so, too, will the Fourth Turning / WW3. We may be so busy bombing ourselves into oblivion that we just don’t have the mental energy to do anything with AI.
But once we sort out what post WW3 world order will be, the, yeah, I could see us zooming towards some pretty cool, pretty exotic technological developments.
One of my favorite novels growing up was Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising. The biggest problem I had with it — even as a young man — was the scenario totally glossed over what the domestic reaction to WW3 would be. With that in mind, let’s imagine that the wars going on at the moment fused together and became WW3.
The nation that connects Ukraine and Israel is Russia. If what’s going on between Israel and Hamas escalates, it would be Russia that could potentially link the two wars.
It would go something like this. Hezbollah strikes Israel from the north at the direction of Iran. Things grow so bad that Israel feels an existential threat and the nuke the capital of Hezbollah’s patron, Iran. Once Teheran is rubble, the 75-year old taboo against using nukes would end and Russia might feel emboldened to nuke Ukraine.
Once this happens, it is easy to imagine China going after Taiwan and the DPRK going after the ROK. Throw in India and Pakistan nuking each other while central Africa goes at it and you have WW3.
It makes you wonder if WW3 would be enough to unite the extremely divided United States. I have my doubts. The problems with the United States at the moment are macro and existential. I don’t even think a world war could unite America at this point.
We are very, very fucked.
It’s really just a matter of what bad thing happens.
Anyway, I don’t know if the American press would be able to handle an actual WW3. It would be a very interesting situation, however. Once the initial freak out faded, I think America would probably go back to the same old Blue-Vs-Red political war that we’ve been experiencing for some time now.
One issue would be if the Draft came back or not. That would be something that would catch the attention of the average person to the point that WW3 wouldn’t just be “over there.”
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