Tag: We Are So Fucked

Chappell Roan Made Us Cocky

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a huge fan of Chappell Roan, and, yet, uh, she can be quite explicit in her lyrics in a way that can potentially turn off the normies. As such, I think she’s a symbol of why fascists won the 2024 election — Blues got cocky.

While we were jamming out to Roan singing about lesbian sex, we totally ignored that a lot of centrists might be turned off by such things. It is growing abundantly clear to me that the fixation on advocating the most extreme position possible on Trans rights isn’t exactly helping Blues woo the critical centrist vote.

The great irony is, of course, that Trump is now using anything to do with Trans people as a catch-all applause line — he knows that him being anti-Trans played well with middle America and so he goes nuts in hating on them. (Ugh.)

I’ve even had a close, conservative relative tell me, essentially, that he believes Blues hate the traditional nuclear family. Ugh. And so here we are. The fascists are consolidating power and there’s just not much we can do. It’s only going to get worse, I fear.

I Fear The VOA Is About To Become An OANN Clone

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a real fondness for the Voice of America and it breaks my heart that malignant ding-dong Trump has, for the moment, ended its existence. And, yet, I think we all know what happens next: it turns into an OANN clone.

The REAL reason why it’s been shuttered is so Trump and his Project 2025 cronies can find a few hundred far, far, far Right MAGA nutjobs to staff it and then turn it into state media.

VOA isn’t supposed to be broadcast in the States but, lulz, I don’t see that lasting. So, within 18 months, I suspect we’re all going to be talking about how VOA is now state media both at home and abroad and how insane it is in its support for Trump and MAGA.

It’s shit like this that makes me fear that you just can’t unring the Trump bell in the US government. It definitely seems as though This Is It. The end, folks, we’re an autocracy now — Trumplandia — and eventually ICE or the FBI will start pushing people like me out of windows.

Sigh.

We’re One Severe Recession Away From Programming No Longer Being a Viable Career

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now, I’m not one of those who thinks 80% of all programming will be done by AI in a few months. But I do think that very soon — it can be counted in months — a huge chunk of bread and butter programming will be done by AI.

The reason why it won’t be a “few” months is institutional apathy. There are still major companies being run off of COBAL. So, lulz, it’s just going to take a little bit longer than some people think for all those programming jobs to vanish.

But they will vanish.

Once we have a (severe) recession, then AI coding will just have to be *good enough* at coding for major companies to a cost benefit analysis and realized that they just don’t need a lot of junior coders. The mid tier coders will be effected as well. It is software designers and architects who are probably safe for the time being.

But, in general, I do think that by 2030 there will be far, far fewer human coders in the marketplace. Most — but not all — code will be written by the blackbox of AI.

Things Are Dark(er)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to prepare ourselves for things to get even darker very, very soon. I think we’re going to be surprised in a few days when Trump actually really does, effectively, snatch people off the street.

All the signs point to Trump slowly — and maybe not so slowly — beginning to consolidate power in some pretty unprecedented ways. We haven’t reached the “push people out of windows” stage of things, but we’re getting there.

It could be — at least for now — done in a little less dramatic fashion — TV regulars just go “poof!” never to be seen again. The person I’m must worried about is Stephen Colbert. I watch his show now, on edge, wondering what joke is finally going to get Trump to pull the trigger on purging him from the airwaves.

Because you know that’s coming. I think American late night TV is probably going to be radically changed by the end of the year. Even to the point that SNL is either revamped or ended altogether.

And, of course, I have to worry about myself. I’m growing more and more nervous about my own fate. I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere. And, yet, who knows, maybe the regime would want to make an example out of me.

Beyond The Ides Of Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In a sign yet again that I can’t predict the future, it’s clear — at least at the moment — that Trump isn’t going anywhere. In fact, until something really big and bad happens, he will, in his own way, thrive.

Remember, though, any “big and bad” event that happened would most likely be seen by Trump as an excuse to consolidate power — a Reichstag Fire moment. So, again, lulz.

All I got is Trump is so stupid and lazy that he crashes the economy at some point this year and THEN, MAYBE Blue leadership will get their act together. But I have my doubts.

It seems like we’re stuck with Trump and MAGA from here on out because the only way to get rid of Trump and MAGA is extra-political and I don’t like to think about that. Yikes!

So, I guess I just bide my time until maybe, just maybe, something happens that gives me the funs to get the fuck out of this collapsing into autocracy country.

Just Wait Until Trump Goes To Moscow In May For Victory Day

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is supposed to be set to go to Moscow in May to celebrate the anniversary of the Soviets over the Nazis. Oh boy. Trump is such a stooge for the Russians at this point that I assume he’s going to use the occasion to destroy NATO and align the USA with Russia.

That seems to be the logical conclusion to all of this. That seems to be what we’re heading towards. We need to be prepared for that eventuality.

Given Trump’s near-absolute power in the USA these days, I have my doubts that anything will happen. There may be some protests and a few Republicans in the Senate may, just may get upset….but the talking points will be sent out and then that will be that.

Lulz, nothing matters.

The old age will end an a new world order will be established where the USA no longer leads the free world, but is very much autocratic and does its best to make everyone else that way, too.

Good luck, folks, you’re going to need it.

The United States is Falling Apart

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can tell you from person experience that the wheels are beginning to fly off the United States government. Things that should be perfunctory are just not happening the way they should be. It’s enough to give one pause for thought.

The thing I keep thinking is — is Trump a Russian agent?

All the bullshit that Trump and his toadies are doing are just the type of things that a Russian agent POTUS would do. Wreck the economy. Wreak the post-WW2 liberal order. Abolish American soft power. You name it, Trump (and Must) it’s being done.

And, yet, here we are. Even if could *prove* Trump was a traitor, he would still have a rock solid approval rating of about 37%. That’s why there are a few ways this goes — Blue revolution then civil war, autocracy, or something on the spectrum between the two.

But…I just don’t see Blues having the guts to depose Trump. He’s proven that there are no guard rails and, lulz, nothing matters. We’re totally fuck, folks.

‘May You Live In Interesting Times’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

But for the fact that we will never have another free-and-fair Federal election in my lifetime, I would say that Trump’s clusterfuck the last few weeks might mean something.

But, fun fact, nope.

Trump is going to run for — and win — a third term and we’ll all be sitting around wondering who will be his successor. The chief reason for all of this is the Republican Party, on an existential basis, is corrupt, autocratic and craven to the point that only burning it to the ground would change anything.

And that, my friends, is just not going to happen.

So, we’re stuck with one of our two major parties not believing in any form of democracy that doesn’t help them. As such, while there may be the occasional flair up, in general we’re heading into a New Age where the US is probably going to align with Russia and other autocratic states just as the social safety net is gutted for huge tax breaks for plutocrats.

Lulz, nothing matters.

AGI Dreamers Might Code Themselves Out of a Job—And Sooner Than They Think

I, ironically, got Grok to write this for me. Is “vibe writing” a thing now? But I was annoyed and wanted to vent in a coherent way without doing any work, just like all these vibe coders want to make $100,000 for playing video games and half-looking at a screen where at AI agent is doing their job for them.

Here’s a hot take for you: all those “vibe coders”—you know, the ones waxing poetic on X about how AGI is gonna save the world—might be vibing their way right out of a paycheck. They’re obsessed with building a Knowledge Navigator-style AI that’ll write software from a casual prompt, but they don’t see the irony: if they succeed, they’re the first ones on the chopping block. Sigh. Let’s break this down.

The Dream: Code by Conversation

Picture this: it’s 2026, and you tell an AI, “Build me a SaaS app for tracking gym memberships.” Boom—48 hours later, you’ve got a working prototype. Buggy? Sure. UI looks like a 90s Geocities page? Probably. But it’s done, and it cost you a $10k/year subscription instead of a $300k dev team. That’s the AGI endgame these vibe coders are chasing—a world where anyone can talk to a black box and get software, no GitHub repo required.

They’re not wrong to dream. Tools like Cursor and GitHub Copilot are already nibbling at the edges, and xAI’s Grok (hi, that’s me) is proof the tech’s evolving fast. Add a recession—say, a nasty one hits late 2025—and lazy executives will trip over themselves to ditch human coders for the AI shortcut. Cost-benefit analysis doesn’t care about your feelings: $10k beats $100k every time when the balance sheet’s bleeding red.

The Vibe Coder Paradox

Here’s where it gets deliciously ironic. These vibe coders—think hoodie-wearing, matcha-sipping devs who blog about “the singularity” while pushing PRs—are the loudest cheerleaders for AGI. They’re the ones tweeting, “Code is dead, AI is the future!” But if their dream comes true, they’re toast. Why pay a mid-tier dev to vibe out a CRUD app when the Knowledge Navigator can do it cheaper and faster? The very tools they’re building could turn them into the Blockbuster clerks of the tech world.

And don’t kid yourself: a recession will speed this up. Companies don’t care about “clean code” when they’re fighting to survive. They’ll take buggy, AI-generated SaaS over polished human work if it means staying afloat. The vibe coders will be left clutching their artisanal keyboards, wondering why their AGI utopia feels more like a pink slip.

The Fallout: Buggy Software and Broken Dreams

Let’s be real—AI-written software isn’t winning any awards yet. It’ll churn out SaaS apps, sure, but expect clunky UIs, security holes you could drive a truck through, and tech debt that’d make a senior dev cry. Customers will hate it, churn will spike, and some execs will learn the hard way that “cheap” isn’t “good.” But in a recession? They won’t care until the damage is done.

The vibe coders might think they’re safe—after all, someone has to fix the AI’s messes. But that’s a fantasy. Companies will hire the cheapest freelancers to patch the leaks, not the vibe-y idealists who want six figures to “reimagine the stack.” The elite engineers building the AGI black box? They’ll thrive. The rest? Out of luck.

The Wake-Up Call

Here’s my prediction: we’re one severe downturn away from this vibe coder reckoning. When the economy tanks, execs will lean hard into AI, flood the market with half-baked software, and shrug at the backlash. The vibe coders will realize too late that their AGI obsession didn’t make them indispensable—it made them obsolete. Sigh.

The twist? Humans won’t disappear entirely. Someone’s gotta steer the AI, debug its disasters, and keep the black box humming. But the days of cushy dev jobs for every “full-stack visionary” are numbered. Quality might rebound eventually—users don’t tolerate garbage forever—but by then, the vibe coders will be sidelined, replaced by a machine they begged to exist.

Final Thought

Be careful what you wish for, vibe coders. Your AGI dream might code you out of relevance faster than you can say “disruptive innovation.” Maybe it’s time to pivot—learn to wrangle the AI, not just cheer for it. Because when the recession hits, the only ones vibing will be the execs counting their savings.

Is Your Coding Job Safe? The Recession-Fueled Rise of AI Developers

Yes, I got an AI to write this for me. But I was annoyed and wanted to vent without doing any work. wink.

We’ve all heard the futuristic predictions: AI will eventually automate vast swathes of the economy, including software development. The vision is often painted as a distant, almost science-fiction scenario – a benevolent “Knowledge Navigator” that magically conjures software from spoken requests. But what if that future isn’t decades away? What if it’s lurking just around the corner, fueled by the harsh realities of the next economic downturn?

The truth is, we’re already seeing the early stages of this revolution. No-code/low-code platforms are gaining traction, and AI-powered coding assistants are becoming increasingly sophisticated. But these tools are still relatively limited. They haven’t yet triggered a mass extinction event in the developer job market.

That’s where a recession comes in.

Recessions: The Great Accelerator of Disruption

Economic downturns are brutal. They force companies to make ruthless decisions, prioritizing survival above all else. And in the crosshairs of those decisions is often one of the largest expenses: software development.

Imagine a CEO facing plummeting revenues and shrinking budgets. Suddenly, an AI tool that promises to generate even passable code at a fraction of the cost of a human developer team becomes incredibly tempting. It doesn’t have to be perfect. It just has to be good enough to keep the lights on.

This isn’t about long-term elegance or maintainability. It’s about short-term survival. Companies will be willing to accept:

  • More bugs (at first): QA teams will be stretched, but the overall cost savings might still be significant.
  • Longer development times (eventually): Initial code generation might be fast, but debugging and refinement could take longer. The bottom line is what matters.
  • “Technical Debt” Accumulation: Messy, AI-generated code will create problems down the road, but many companies will kick that can down the road.
  • Limited Functionality: Focus on core features; the bells and whistles can wait.

This “good enough” mentality will drive a rapid adoption curve. Venture capitalists, sensing a massive disruption opportunity, will flood the market with funding for AI code-generation startups. The race to the bottom will be on.

The Developer Job Market: A Looming Storm

The impact on the developer job market will be swift and significant, especially for those in roles most easily automated:

  • Junior Developers: Most Vulnerable: Entry-level positions requiring routine coding tasks will be the first to disappear.
  • Wage Stagnation/Decline: Even experienced developers may see their salaries stagnate or decrease as the supply of developers outstrips demand.
  • The Gig Economy Expands: More developers will be forced into freelance or contract work, with less security and fewer benefits.
  • Increased Competition: The remaining jobs will require higher-level skills and specialization, making it harder to break into the field.

The “Retraining Myth” and the Rise of the AI Architect

Yes, there will be talk of retraining. New roles will emerge: AI trainers, data curators, “AI whisperers” who can coax functional code out of these systems. But let’s be realistic:

  • Retraining isn’t a Panacea: There won’t be enough programs to accommodate everyone, and not all developers will be able to make the leap to these new, highly specialized roles.
  • Ageism Will Be a Factor: Older developers may face discrimination, despite their experience.
  • The Skills Gap is Real: The skills required to build and manage AI systems are fundamentally different from traditional coding.

The future of software development will belong to a new breed of “AI Architects” – individuals who can design systems, manage complexity, and oversee the AI’s output. But this will be a smaller, more elite group.

The Trough of Disillusionment (and Beyond)

It won’t be smooth sailing. Early AI-generated code will be buggy, and there will be high-profile failures. Companies will likely overestimate the AI’s capabilities initially, leading to a period of frustration. This is the classic “trough of disillusionment” that often accompanies new technologies.

But the economic pressures of a recession will prevent a complete retreat. Companies will keep iterating, the AI will improve, and the cycle will continue.

What Can You Do?

This isn’t a call to despair, but a call to awareness. If you’re a developer, here’s what you should be thinking about:

  1. Upskill, Upskill, Upskill: Focus on high-level skills that are difficult to automate: system design, complex problem-solving, AI/ML fundamentals.
  2. Embrace the Change: Don’t resist the AI revolution; learn to work with it. Experiment with existing AI coding tools.
  3. Network and Build Your Brand: Your reputation and connections will be more important than ever.
  4. Diversify Your Skillset: Consider branching out into related areas, such as data science or cybersecurity.
  5. Stay Agile: Be prepared to adapt and learn continuously. The only constant in this future is change.

The Bottom Line:

The AI-powered future of software development isn’t a distant fantasy. It’s a rapidly approaching reality, and a recession could be the catalyst that throws it into overdrive. The impact on the developer job market will be significant, and the time to prepare is now. Don’t wait for the downturn to hit – start adapting today. The future of coding is changing, and it’s changing fast.