Tag: Ukraine

Contemplating A Russo-Ukrainian General War This Winter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Nothing has happened yet in any real terms that would lead me to believe Putin would risk everything to wage a general war this winter against Ukraine. He scares the shit out the West every once in a while, but he always, to date, blinks.

For Putin to change his mind and actually start a general war with Ukraine, some long-term calculation would have to change in his mind. He would have to believe that the West is so divided and ineffectual that should he attack Ukraine he could not only get away with it, but survive.

General War.

On paper, however, that is just not viable.

Russia’s economy is tiny. Ukraine has a pretty big population. There is a real chance that after Russia “takes Kiev in two weeks” and the current moderate government is forced to sue for peace, that there will be mass chaos and a new far, far right fascist government based on irredentism.

If a dumb dumb like me in the middle of nowhere can see how obvious is that any Russo-Ukrainian war would be nothing more than the Soviet involvement in Afghanistan but with a bigger population a strategic portion of Europe and, lulz?

What could possibility have changed that would lead him to think he could engage in a major regional war in a huge chunk of Europe and there would not be some pretty severe geopolitical consequences.

If you wanted to be tinfoil hat in your hot take, you might believe that something that Putin learned from his good buddy Trump. Or something. If Putin does, in fact, attack Ukraine, he will either have far more modest war aims than we’re being lead to believe, or he believes something has changed to the extent that he can do it and get away with it.

But there is the possibility that what we don’t know is just as Putin gets ready to attack in a general war in January 2022, Xi in China will strike Taiwan as well. Putin’s thinking would be that two regional wars at the same time (AKA, WW3).

Yet, if that’s not what’s going on, I’m at a loss as to what may be Putin’s change in reasoning.

Any Winter War Between Russia & Ukraine Would Likely Start With The Modest Aim Of A Land Bridge Between Donbass & Crimea


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, I have no idea why Putin would pick now of all times to start a war of any sort with Ukraine. But, to date, Putin has proven himself to at least be logical in how he goes about his Ukrainian land grabs. In Donbass, he took some land by force, then ran away, leaving his proxy toadies to manage the mess.

In Crimea, he slowly took it over using “Little Green Men.”

So, it seems as though at least going into things, Putin wants nothing more than to establish a land bridge between Donbass and Crimea. That’s it. It’s meant to be a very fast smash and grab operation that will happen so fast that the Ukrainians won’t even have time to come up with a response.

The Russians get a thin, long land bridge and then they just stop. If Ukraine grows unstable enough, Putin might strike towards Odessa as well just because he can and lulz.

But the key thing that Putin must be weighing is he doesn’t want to stress test the stability of the Ukrainian government. It’s far better to have the current government in power smarting over the loss of some land than a revolutionary far Right government based on irredentism.

As such, I don’t see there being a war and if there is one, it will be relatively modest and quick. It might scare the shit out of people who wake up one morning to some pretty dramatic war footage from Ukraine, but, in real terms, it will be a minor war.

Or, at, least, it will be begun with that intention. Anything could happen once the actual war started. If the Ukrainian government was overthrown by a radical fascist one, then, well, we’re going to the show.

But, hopefully, that won’t happen.

A Major Invasion of Ukraine By Russia This Winter Would Make No Sense


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While there’s a lot of talk about there being a major war between Ukraine and Russia, for the moment I’m still not buying it. It just doesn’t make any sense. Why would Putin risk everything attacking Ukraine when he could attack Ukraine with the modest war aim of establishing a land bridge between Donbass and Crimea and position himself for bigger and better things later?

Now, if you were to tell me that Russia was going to fight a major war against Ukraine in conjunction with the Chinese attacking Taiwan, then that would make a lot more sense. Then, of course, you’d be dealing with WW3.

And, just today, I saw where Russian troops in the Donbass area have been put on active status, so it’s at least possible that what I think will happen — a limited war with modest war aims — is actually going to happen. It will be a brief smash and grab operation to establish a land bridge and then it will stop just as fast as it began.

That, at least, would be the war aim when the war started. Once you start a war, any number of things can happen to change its direction.

‘Smash & Grab:’ The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War of 2021 – 2022 & Ukrainian Irredentism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea of any major war between Russia and Ukraine is very, very stupid for Russia. They would be able to take the land, but they wouldn’t be able to keep it long-term.

That’s why I’ve proposed that any war that Russia began against Ukraine this winter would be very limited and tactical in nature. If I was going to make any predictions about the prospective Russo-Ukrainian Winter War of 2021 – 2022, I would suggest the biggest battle would be the one associated with Mariupol. It’s the biggest Ukrainian city between Donbass in the east and Crimea in the southwest.

So, in my opinion, once Putin secured Mariupol, he would re-evaluate his options. If he were to strike from both Crimea and Donbass and take Mariupol from both directions, I think he would stop altogether. Then, about five years from now, he would begin to move troops towards Odessa. That would be his next target.

The reason why he would do the above plan instead of a far broader attack, he knows that if he took “Kyiv in two weeks” as he has boasted before, that he would be sowing the seeds of his own defeat long term. The rump state of Ukraine would be thrown into chaos and it’s very possible that a far, far right fascist state would be established based on irredentism.

Irredentism is, in short, the political movement of “give us back our land.” As such, if Russians took Kyiv, they would be setting up a very 1980s Afghanistan but in Europe with a far biggest population situation. Everyone from the French to the Swedes would throw military supplies and “advisors” at the Ukraine as the new front line began to take shape.

There’s just no reason that I can think of that Putin would throw his forces into a major regional war against Ukraine when he knows as well as anyone that he would likely significantly destabilize his own country to the point of revolution.

The only thing that might save Putin’s ass in this situation is if China also attacked Taiwan this winter in a big way. Then you would, in effect, have WW3 and a whole different dynamic at play.

As such, I think maps like the below are just FUD on the Russians’ part.

I still don’t even know if it’s all that likely there’s going to be any war between Russia and Ukraine this winter. But is something to contemplate.

The State Of Play Between Russia and Ukraine As Of Nov. 15, 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still don’t think Russia is going to do anything in regards to Ukraine. I think this is just another one of Putin’s occasional demands for attention. And, winter is coming, so it would make a lot more sense for Putin to wait until March -April to attack if he was going to do so.

And, yet, it definitely seems as though it’s at least possible that Russia really is going to strike in some way pretty soon.

All I can say is, if I am surprised and Putin attacks, it’s very unlikely to be a general war. Not only is Russia’s economy very small — about the size of Italy’s I think — but the moment Russia took a huge chunk of Ukraine between Odessa in the southwest and Donbas in the northeast of Ukraine, the fever of irridentism would strike the hearts of Ukrainians.

In other words, all hell would break loose.

Not only would a wave of nationalism rush over Ukraine, but NATO would begin to throw a huge amount of weapons and training at Ukraine. It would be a huge fucking proxy war that Russia simply could not win. And, in the end, the very existence of Putin’s autocratic regime would be put in danger.

Now, on paper, one way that Putin could get both a huge chunk of Ukraine and be able to keep it would be to start such a war in the context of China attacking Taiwan at the same time. It would be far more difficult for the West to help Ukraine if it was also struggling to help Taiwan at the same time.

And, if you really wanted to get dystopian, it’s easy to imagine Xi in China to nudge the DPRK to attack the South Koreans in a big way while all of this was going on in an effort to wear down and overextend Western governments.

All of this would, of course, be marketed at World War 3 and before you know it, India and Pakistan would nuke each other, as would Israel and Iran. I’m of the opinion that any such “Great Reset” would probably happen around the same time the United States has a civil war around 2024 – 2025 because Bannon’s administrative coup works and Blue States grow so enraged that they leave the Union.

Lulz, nothing matters.

Running The Russia – Ukraine Winter War Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, a few things. One, I’m not an expert on this situation, just someone who has been interested in the area my entire life. Also, I just don’t think Putin is going to start any type of major war against Ukraine. It just would not make any sense. But, I love to run scenarios, so let’s run this one and see what we end up with.

From what I can tell, at the moment, the Russian build up around the Ukrainian theatre of operations is exclusively in and around the Donbas area. This would lead me to believe that the Russians are thinking about a quick smash and grab operation that would connect their holding in Donbas to the Crimea that they also control.

That’s it. That’s all Putin wants going into things.

Any additional territory that he was able to secure would be icing on the cake. I could see that happening if, say, something happened so the Ukrainian central government unexpectedly collapsed. Then, maybe Putin might drive towards Odessa as well.

But, in general, otherwise, the actual land that Putin wants to take from Ukraine would be modest. Yes, it would be a big deal — a huge deal — if he attempted to take any additional land by force, but I also we’re talking about a war that was started to be brief and sharp. Putin gets his land bridge and then he just stops.

The territory he would be small enough that he could control it long term and he could use it establish the long term idea of Novorossiya. Putin is a really smart guy. Unless he can see some long-term benefit, he will probably stop at a land bridge and ignore Odessa.

His plan would be that in another five years or so, he starts to keep towards Odessa. He does another smash-and-grab attack to get Odessa and so forth and so on for the next few decades. That, at least, to me, seems Putin’s long term goal at the moment.

The brief, bloody attack on Ukraine by Russian forces would scare the shit out of people all over the world because they would think WW3 was about to begin, but, in real terms, the actual war would be so short that it would quickly fade from memory.

Another reason why I just can’t imagine Putin doing anything too big with Ukraine is there are a lot of nations around Russia full of people chomping at the bit to aid the Ukrainians in any fight against the Russians. And NATO would begin to funnel a massive amount of arms and supplies to the Ukrainians if the war lasted too long or got too big.

Hopefully, however, all of this is just a scenario.

My Hot Take On Russia’s Ukrainian War Aims This Winter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still don’t believe Putin is going to make a major land grab in Ukraine. Until something changes, for the time being Putin is all talk. This is yet another one of his occasional efforts to remind us what a massive cocksucker he is.

And, yet, if he were to attack Ukraine, I think his ultimate war aims would be rather modest. All he would want to do is connect Donbas to Crimea. That’s it. If he was feeling esspecially frisky, he might go for Odessa as well, simply because it would make sense for him to take it while he was at it.

Putin would want to take just enough of Ukraine to connect what he already controls, without causing the collapse of the Ukrainian government. If mass chaos struck Ukraine, there’s a really good chance there would be a far Right coup of some sort and some serious irredentism would take hold of the rump state of Ukraine.

If that happened, that would not be a war that Putin, with a very small economy, could win long-term.

Novorossiya: My Hot Take On Current Ukraine – Russia Situation


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Please note: I’m not an expert! I just have a long-time interest in this situation.

Something is going on — again — between the Ukrainians and the Russians. But, what? There has been a years-long “frozen conflict” in eastern Ukraine, to the point where it’s not somewhere one thinks anything is ever going to happen.

For the time being, the Russians like the status quo and, given how small their economy is, even if they were able to take Kiev and and try to establish some sort to Novorossiya, the Russians would not be able to keep it for very long. The one way they might make their Novorossiya dreams come true is swiftly take Kiev, have the Ukrainians sue for peace and then gobble up the land they want strictly through pollical means.

But even that somewhat ideal situation for Russia would be problematic. Eastern Ukraine’s political and ethnic makeup is far from uniform and there would be a lot of nationalists Ukrainians in Eastern Ukraine that would take up arms even if the Russians were able to conslodate power in the region as part of a peace deal.

What’s more, Ukraine signing off that much land to the Russians would enrage nationalists in the rump state and it’s very possible to imagine a far-Right government deciding to do everything in its power to take the lost land back. Which would put Russia in exactly the position was trying to avoid in the first place.

So, it’s very possible that the frozen conflict between Ukraine and Russia might heat up some, but something pretty big would have to go wrong for both sides before we were talking about any sort of general war.

But, having said all that, I am often wrong.

What Is Russia Up To In Ukraine? (April 15, 2021)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Russia’s president-for-life Putin has repeatedly over the years moved troops in and around eastern Ukraine as if he was at least thinking about doing some sort of major land grab. In that respect, Russia is a lot like the DPRK — there comes a point where you pretty much dismiss talk of this or that possible military move because it’s just that: talk.

Apparently, at the moment, the Russians have about 40,000 troops within striking distance of Ukraine. But I’m also under the impression that there are no indications that the support staff and equipment needed to do any type of attack has been mobilized.

So, again, it seems very possible that this is just smoke and mirrors on Putin’s park to keep everyone — especially Ukraine — off balance and nervous. At the moment, I’m just not prepared to be all that concerned about what’s going on. Not until something unexpected, something out of the ordinary actually happens between Russia and Ukraine am I prepared to believe this time will be any different that previous, similar situations.

And remember, Russia has a very small economy — about the size of Italy, I think. So it would make a lot of sense for any attack against Ukraine to simply be a series of tactical attacks meant to shore up Russia’s control of Crimea. Even though Russia could, in fact, take Kiev “in two weeks” as Putin boasts, if he was able to bring Ukraine to its knees, it would very much be a pyrrhic victory. After the shock of Russia taking much of eastern Ukraine wore off, the rump state of Ukraine would be flooded with support from the West and then we have a reply of what happened with the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, only with a far larger population involved.

I therefore think that while what is happening between Russia and Ukraine is unnerving, for the time being we can simply consider it more of the same. But only time will tell.

MAGA & The Crisis In Ukraine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s a testament to how fucked up the American political system is right now that a powerful portion of electorate sees Putin’s autocratic managed-democracy as something to look up to.

Let me be clear from the beginning — I’m not expert on what’s going on in Ukraine with the Russians but I know enough to have an educated opinion. It definitely seems as though there’s a greater-than-zero-sum chance that the Russians might make some sort of power grab in the coming days. As such, it makes you wonder what the reaction of MAGA would be to such an event.

A lot depends on if any conflict between Ukraine and Russia is big enough to puncture the America’s inward looking media narrative bubble. If it’s simply a short, swift tactical attack then, lulz, it may be the focus of news junkies but in general Blue and Red will continue to be too busy plotting how we’re going to murder each other in cold blood for political reasons in four years to worry about it.

But, God forbid, it’s not just a tactical land grab but a significant war then there’s a possibility that much like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 1970s the event will come to dominate the American news cycle. And we really haven’t had such a conflict in the era of social media so it’s possible that both sides would flood Americans Facebook and Twitter feeds with gore and violence in an effort to swing public opinion.

That’s where MAGA gets involved.

It’s easy to imagine a scenario where MAGA gives full-throated support to the Russians to the point that, much like the COVID19 pandemic what you think about what should be done will be seen through the prism of your political affiliation.

The traditional Cold War dynamic might be turned upside down with MAGA Republicans siding with the Russians and everyone else siding with Ukraine. Though, to be fair, the dynamic would be a bit more complicated than that — a lot would rest on what Trump’s hot take on the situation was. A lot Establishment Republicans — especially in the Senate — would freak the fuck out if Russia attacked Ukraine in a major way and difference between MAGA Republicans and traditional conservative Republicans might be quite glaring.

And, remember, the last time Ukraine was part of public debate in the United States is was as part of Trump’s first impeachment trial. So there may be some lingering hostility towards Ukraine on the part of some Republicans that might not otherwise be there.

And, yet, I have my doubts that anything will come up Russia’s current shenanigans on the Ukrainian border. They do shit like this all the time and it’s possible after a few days this will recede from our attention like all the other times Putin has done similar things.