As I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. So there’s every reason to believe that Trump will lose later this year and we’ll punt our problems down the road another four years.
And, yet.
I like to make my abstract fears concrete, so, I worry. I worry a lot. Specifically, I worry about what is going to happen if Trump wins and then goes “fully tyrant” in 2025. Will there be any reaction at all if Trump is literally snatching his opponents off the street in broad daylight?
That, specifically, is the thing I just can’t game out. It could be that nothing happens and it could be that Trump will be so ham-handed in his autocracy that he single-handedly causes those rarest of American political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” to pop out.
Radical Moderates only appear in times of great crisis — like the Civil War, The Great Depression or WW2. And usually they don’t last long. The calm down and go back to being just regular old centrists.
I just don’t know. I have no idea what to tell you about events going forward.
I make a lot of dark, dystopian predictions on this blog about the future. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t *know* what will happen. But I am…uneasy about our future. All the *conditions* are there for some sort of collapse of the United States for various reasons.
As such, my big concern if THAT happens is the DPRK will take advantage of the situation and start lobbing H-bombs in our direction. It will be a lot more difficult for Blues to win over Reds if, say, LA and NYC have been vaporized.
So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I am very, very concerned that the future could be a far, far darker than we’re willing to accept at the moment.
It could be that about 1 billion people will die directly because of ding-dong Trump. Buckle up.
We’re doomed. We’re fucking doomed. The Republican Party is now a fascist one with one agenda and one agenda only — to establish the United States as an autocratic, MAGA-themed white Christian ethnostate.
The key thing to remember is that we can only punt this particular problem down the road so much. Even if we “vote harder” and beat Trump at the polls, the Republican Party is so fascist and radicalized that it’s inevitable that the pressure to transform the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate will remain.
So, if it’s not 2025 that we turn into an Christian autocracy, it will be 2029.
As such, there is a part of me — not a very big part — that feels like throwing down the gauntlet NOW so at least if we are going to have a big political / military fight over the choice of autocracy or freedom at least ding-dong Trump will be in charge of the fucking fascists, not someone with any sense about them.
But I only think that when I get really fucking frustrated with the chipper do-gooders who think that if we only “vote harder” that that will fix everything. But it won’t. There’s a good chance that even if the “vote harder” strategy works that Trump will demand a National Divorce to avoid prison time.
Or, put another way — the issue is, that barring some sort of Black Swan event pretty soon, late 2024, early 2025 could see some of the most dramatic events in American — if not human — history. I can’t predict the future. Who knows.
Ok, here’s what’s going on with Trump and that core 38% of the electorate who continue support him, no matter what. It’s no so much Trump the person as it is Trump the “idea.” Trump’s base of support comes from conservative white Christians who feel put upon by the “excesses” of the center-Left.
They don’t consider themselves racists or bigots, but relative the “woke” center-Left, they feel like they’re being portrayed that way. As such, they are angry over being put upon by the rise of a browner America and women with economic agency.
As such, they want the “good old days” of white Christians being “on top” to return. Since they can’t get that, they cling to a fighter like Trump, even though he is demonstrably bonkers, racist and stupid.
So, at this point, it really doesn’t matter what Trump does. He’s still 60,000 voters in 5 swing states away from being POTUS again. We’ve kind of given up. On a macro basis the American Republic is on its last legs. Or we have a civil war /revolution of some sort starting in late 2024, early 2025 and after bombing or ourselves into oblivion the “good guys” win and we gradually return to hyperpower status, though in the context of a New World Order after a Third World War.
I can’t predict the future, but that definitely seems like one option.
Or, put another way, the rise of someone as fucking stupid as Trump definitely indicates that America is at a crossroads. Either we establish a Third American Republic, or, that’s it. That’s all she wrote — we turn into a Russian-style illiberal democracy probably with some form of AI being involved for good measure.
Which direction will we take?
I honestly don’t know.
But back to Trump.
All the liberals who continue to be aghast at Trump’s popularity are really missing the point.They are very, very out of touch. A lot of white Christians — a few of whom I’m related to — mean well, but just can’t grapple with the rapid social changes of the “woke” cultural left.
So, they fell pushed into the arms of fascists. There are no easy answers to this particular situation. While we may still punt our problems down the road, in general, we’re very, very fucked.
Welp, I think America is going to default. Or, more specifically, I think we’re going to default, Biden is going to be forced to invoke the 14th Amendment and it gets throw into the lap of the hack MAGA judges who want to destroy America so we become an autocratic white Christian ethnostate.
Then, in turn, once all that is figured out, MAGA House Republicans will strike — they will impeach Biden for “abuse of power” and that’s what we’ll be focused on for the next few months while we suffer through a severe global recession o a par with the Great Recession.
Now, obviously, having such a horrific economic situation ahead of us definitely would focus the mind of pols in Washington. But I think because MAGA Republicans are so tyrannical and politically bloodthirsty that they will lulz everything because a default will help them transition the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate.
So, there you go.
We’re fucked.
Or not.
I suppose it’s possible we’ll somehow muddle through yet again, but I have my doubts.
Here are, in no particular order, the political consequences of the United States defaulting.
Trump Will Probably Win In 2024 A default would hand Trump an economic gimmie on a massive scale. Unless something none of us could possibly predict, America defaulting all but assures a second Trump Administration. In short — we’re totally, completely fucked. I still believe that Trump, in the end, will be something of a transitional figure with his MAGA Nazi successor being the person who finally consolidates power and turns us into a Hungary-like illiberal democracy. Probability of Revolution / Civil War Grows Greatly By definition, a default would not only totally scramble the world economy — maybe causing the Second Great Recession — but would also destabilize the United States to the point that when the 2024 election rolls around, we either have a civil war (Reds leaving the Union) or a revolution (Blues overthrowing the Red Nazi autocratic state.) Regardless, it’s going to be fucked. It’s going to be horrible and there’s a real chance that WW3 will happen while the United States is too busying imploding to keep an eye on global hotspots. UBI Becomes Closer To Reality A severe recession would give companies the cover they needed to use AI to replace many, many, MANY jobs, to the point that it’s even possible that implementing some sort of UBI will be a major campaign issue of the 2024 presidential cycle. It’s possible that it will become clear to everyone that AI is going to end most jobs and the government is going to have to step in. If nothing else, AI’s impact on the economy and society could be far bigger than any of us imagine when it comes to the political landscape of 2024. Biden’s (First?) Impeachment MAGA Republicans in the House are already itching for an excuse to impeach Biden and WHATEVER he does in the context of a default that doesn’t involve screwing over the Poors will be enough for House Republicans to ram through an impeachment. It’s a testament to how dumb and ill-focused House Republicans are that they haven’t managed to come up with an excuse to impeach Biden, even though their base obviously wants it really bad.
While I’m definitely a fan of blonde bombshell Sydney Sweeney, I’m growing a bit alarmed that if the US defaults because of dickhead Republicans that her current white-hot career may crash and burn as a direct result.
I say this because Sweeney’s phenotype is very much a representation of America being pretty prosperous, all things considered. She’s got Marilyn Monroe curves and if we suddenly get thrown into a severe economic crisis because the US defaults on its bills…oh boy.
It could be that virtually overnight, American audiences will turn to women who are more…Twiggy than Sweeney in their phenotype. But let me be clear — I’m usually wrong and this could be another instance of just that: me being wrong.
But I would suggest that if the United States does default that it’s just another road towards some sort of clusterfuck in late 2024, early 2025. I don’t know what that Fourth Turning clusterfuck might be, but it’s going to be big. If the US defaults, then the it’s possible it won’t be a National Divorce we have to worry about but something closer to a Revolution. And it won’t be from the Right, but from the Left.
Remember, Reds are politically ascendant. They have absolutely no reason to start a civil war or a revolution. Meanwhile, there are plenty of patriotic, America-loving people like me who are growing fucking fed up with the racist, misogynistic goals of MAGA.
Anyway, hopefully we won’t default and Ms. Sweeney will have a career that continues to do quite well.
I talked to my conservative relative — who I love dearly — about the fact that Democrats, after being out of power for 12 years, were able to return in 1992 because they changed their policies. I said this in the context of suggesting to my conservative relative that rather than supporting fascist policies and hating democracy, that maybe Republicans could change their policy agenda.
“You mean you want us to turn into Democrats?” was their response.
It’s this type of thinking on the part of stalwart Republicans that I find very troubling in the context of the 2024 presidential campaign. At the moment, at least, it seems as though the 2024 election will be existential to our democracy. It’s going to be a total shitshow one way or another.
The only question in my mind at the moment is if we have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. I definitely think that because it’s most likely that the onus will be on Blues to leave the Union because Reds are politically ascendant that we NOT going to have a civil war, but rather simply slide peacefully into a MAGA Nazi themed autocracy.
About 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country starting Election Day 2024 and that will be that. America will leave NATO and soon enough there will be a MAGA-run Constitutional Convention that will slap some sort of MAGA Enabling Acts onto the Constitution.
At the moment, here in 2023, that particular nightmare scenario seems a foregone conclusion.
At the moment, Trump is very much a loser joke — which is what Hitler was for much of the 1920s after the failure of the Beerhall Putsch. So, here is how ding-dong Trump wins the 2024 election.
A Debt Celling Debacle As I grow older, I begin to understand why graybeards are so reluctant to assume that the absolute worst is going to happen. And, yet, we have to take seriously the possibility that MAGA House Republicans are now so extreme that they’re willing to crash the global economy just out of pure spite. If there is a long-feared Debt Celling crisis and we don’t get around to minting a $1 Trillion coin to pay our bills because the House Freedom Caucus stands in the way…oh boy. Are we fucked. If there was a severe global downturn because of the dipshit House Republicans, that would definitely make the average American more receptive to a demagogue like Trump.
Trump Gets Indicted It goes without saying that if Trump is indicted that he will see a dramatic change in his political fortunes. Combine a Trump indictment with a severe economic downturn and a second Trump Administration definitely seems to be a foregone conclusion.
Petite Singularity Recession Even if we manage to muddle through a Debt Celling crisis, there is the issue that not only are we way overdue for a moderate-to-severe recession, but something akin to a Petite Singularity might be about to happen when things like ChatGPT 4.0 comes out and its results are “good enough” that your local capitalist pig can lay off as many workers as possible to save money during the contraction.
President Harris This one really makes me nervous. President Biden is very old. He should not run for re-election, but, lulz, here we are. What’s more, I just don’t have a lot of confidence in Kamala Harris. The worst case scenario would be, of course, that Biden shuffles off this mortal coil at some point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 while we’re in the middle of a severe recession, yikes!
A Patriot Party Promise It could be that, in the end, there is some sort of brokered Republican Convention and Trump wins the nomination because he vows to bounce to the Patriot Party if he doesn’t get the nod. It seems to me that the key issue for Trump is just to get the nomination. If he gets the nomination, I will be shocked if he doesn’t win again.
The key thing to remember is — if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, the likelihood of a Second American Civil War increases significantly. It will be Blues, not Reds, who demand a National Divorce.
Now that we’re in 2023, I find myself thinking about how likely it is that we may, in fact, have a Second American Civil War because of the passions of the 2024 presidential cycle. I continue to wrack my mind as to what I could possibly be getting wrong about the various dystopian hellscape scenarios that I’ve managed to come up with.
I continue to believe that if a 2ACW happens, it’s going to happen because Blue States refuse to bend a knee to ascendant Red States. As much as Reds want to murder people like me in cold blood using the rules of war, not law, in the end, they really don’t have any reason to start a civil war — they’re going to get everything they want via regular old dysfunctional politics.
It seems to me there are a number of milestones we still have to reach before we have a better sense of how things are going to sort out in late 2024, early 2025 between Election Day and Certification Day. We still don’t know if Trump is going to ever be held legally accountable for his massive, on-going crime spree. If he is indicted, then likelihood that he will be the 2024 Republican nominee grows significantly.
Additionally, there is the issue of how SCOTUS will rule on the “Independent Legislature” concept. If they give individual states significantly more leeway when it comes to the practical administration of elections that could very well be the United States striking an iceberg. It won’t be obvious at first, but when the time comes, the MAGA state legislatures of swing states might feel like they could step in and appoint their own electors, damn the will of the people. We’re not a democracy after all, right you fucking MAGA cocksuckers?
The last issue, the one that could really decide America’s fate is that of the debt ceiling. If MAGA Republicans in the House push America in to its first-ever default, then, well, the conditions are there for MAGA — and Trump — to come roaring back in 2024. They won’t even have to cheat to win, but Trump’s second term agenda will be so fucking radical that that, unto itself, could force the hand of Blue States and provoke a National Divorce, which, in turn would cause a Second American Civil War.
Then, of course, there are a few wildcards that I simply can’t game out one way or another. The issue of how old Biden is weighs on my mind a great deal. Harris is very untested and it would be a massive clusterfuck if Biden shuffled off this mortal coil at just the wrong moment in the post-election process. You thought 2020 was bad with the “Stop The Steal” bullshit, just imagine Biden’s Electors being up for grabs and Trump (or someone like him) ranting about how they should vote for him “for the sake of the nation.”
Anyway, I’m always wrong. It’s very possible that we’ll somehow muddle through the 2024 election and all my doom and gloom will look very foolish. But even if that is the case, there continue to be some significant tectonic issues with the American political system that we’re going to be confronted with sooner or later.
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