Tag: The Russians Are Coming

What Would Happen If Russia Used Tactical Nukes On Ukraine?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve written about this before, but this time I want to be as clear eyed as possible about what would happen if Russia used tactical nukes on Ukraine. The first thing we have to figure out is, of course — why?

Why would Putin break the 70-odd year taboo against using nukes as a part of war? The key issue is — is Putin still a rational actor or not? Let’s suppose there was a method to his madness.

The thing that becomes clear whenever thinking about Russia using tactical nukes on Ukraine is it’s unlikely to be a value free situation. Putin would not just use a few nukes here and there, he would probably have to go all in, using a number of tactical nukes across Ukraine. I say this because any use of tactical nukes would be met with such international outrage that he can’t just give Ukraine a “love tap” and move on.

He would have to use tactical nukes to soften up Ukraine to the point that he could swoop in and take over the entire country without much opposition. Or, at least, that would be what he would be thinking going into the situation. Even Putin would have to come to grips with the cold, hard fact that if he nukes Ukraine that to wrap up the conquest of the Ukraine nation he would have to do a massive general mobilization of the Russian population.

We have to get out of the way the obvious — no amount of nuking Ukraine with tactical nukes would pacify them. The entire Ukrainian population would be in a very blood thirsty rage if, say, a dozen or so tactical nukes were used across their nation and, as such, Russia would have to throw everything it could muster at Ukraine to keep the country under its jackboot.

Ok. Now take a deep breath.

The thing you have to game out is Russia using tactical nukes all across Ukraine would not happen in a vacuum. Once the taboo regarding using nukes doesn’t exist anymore, then there would likely be a cascading series of events all across the globe in rapid succession.

Other nations with nukes would at least seriously think about using the nukes that they have to settle scores. As such, you could see India and Pakistan nuke each other into oblivion. You could see Israel and Iran do the same. And then, of course, there is the wild card of both China and Taiwan and the DPRK and South Korea.

Put another way, the nukes of nukes by the Russians against the Ukrainians would be Patient Zero of a nuclear-tipped contagion that would zoom across the globe at an alarming rate. WW3 would begin and millions — maybe billions — would die.

Another crucial element to all of this would be what would happen within Russia itself. After the shock wore off, I believe the Russian population would freak the fuck out and either a civil war or revolution — or both — would break out. And all of this would be happening in the context of WW3 happening.

There is the chance, of course, that the outrage over Russia nuking Ukraine would force the hand of the United States, especially if the world was already falling into WW3. As such, NATO might confront Russia directly in Ukraine and, well….I don’t what to tell you then.

I’m not an expert. I’m always wrong. Let’s hope Putin is a rational actor and we don’t have to worry about shit like this.

Of NATO, Ukraine & Putin’s Metrics For Invasion


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One theory floating around Twitter is Putin is about to engage in a massive, risky war against Ukraine because he wants to stop the country from joining NATO.

I struggle to imagine this being true, for a lot of reasons.

The biggest is — if all Putin wants to do is ensure that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO, all he has to do is a modest smash-and-grab operation connecting Donbass to Odessa. Have enough of a lingering “frozen conflict” endgame to it that NATO just doesn’t want to risk letting Ukraine join.

And all of the other metrics presented to me can be swatted away. Putin is old, they say. And I say, so what. Putin is an autocrat and all autocrats think they’re going to live forever. The list goes on.

You can’t escape some cold hard facts. It’s sexy to think of a big war between Ukraine and Russia, but you can’t escape how small Russia’s economy is. You can’t escape the stress such a huge, potentially long-term, war against Ukraine that has a fair sized population would have on Russia’s economy and overall stability.

The point is — what metrics is Putin using that would cause him to believe a general war against Ukraine would be a good idea? What the hell is he thinking? Because it would make a lot more sense if this was all just a very expensive bit of saber rattling meant to get a face-to-face sit down IRL with Biden.

And he can do that because he’s an autocrat. So, for the time being, that’s what I think is happening. When something changes, I’ll revise my assessment.

A Reminder To The Russians That History Is Extremely Unpredictable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, the Russians are looking at the possibility of a civil war in the United States with glee. They think Trump’s their guy. And “the worst the better” when it comes to civil war in the United States.

I would like to note that the Germans shipped Lenin to Russia in a sealed train, thinking it was a lulz. And we all know how that turned out.

So you just never know. While it’s obvious that the Russians think that Trump will either turn the United States into an autocratic managed democracy like themselves or the States will implode into civil war — sometimes “chaos agents” prompt chaos that turns around and bites the people who helped them in the butt.

I’m not feeling all that optimistic about the fate of the United States at the moment, but on a macro level, things may turn out in ways the Russians may live to regret.